据离岸工程网站5月27日消息 研究咨询公司伍德麦肯兹周四表示，随着经济复苏停滞，日本和韩国的核燃料和煤炭竞争能力扩大，明年亚洲液化天然气需求增长将放缓。
伍德麦肯兹液化天然气短期、天然气和液化天然气研究主管罗伯特•西姆斯在一份报告中表示，预计2022年亚洲液化天然气需求将增长1200万吨/年，低于2021年的1900万吨/年增长。
他补充说：“随着经济复苏放缓，亚洲的液化天然气需求增长将放缓，日本和韩国的煤炭和核产能将增加，印度将有更多的离岸国内供应。”
同时，由于美国的Sabine Pass 6号线和Calcasieu Pass项目以及印度尼西亚的Tangguh 3号线新增了液化天然气供应，全球液化天然气供应量将增加1800万吨/年。这意味着，欧洲每年将有约600万至700万吨液化天然气可供使用，比2021年增加9%。
尽管如此，西姆斯表示，明年塑造欧洲市场动态的关键将是从俄罗斯到德国的北溪 2号管道的扩建，该管道的年输送能力为550亿立方米，预计将于今年冬天投产。
“2022年价格可能会走软，但市场基本面显示，到2025年，全球液化天然气市场将进一步收紧，”他说。
“随着亚洲液化天然气需求持续增加，全球液化天然气供应增长将放缓，大西洋液化天然气的竞争将加剧，减少欧洲的液化天然气供应。”
伍德麦肯兹预计，今年夏季，尽管全球液化天然气供应预计将比去年同期增加1600万吨/年，但对补充库存的需求和强劲的煤改气经济将支撑整个夏季的欧洲天然气价格。
西姆斯说：“冬季市场将越来越紧张。”
“欧洲冬季开始库存减少，加上亚洲季节性需求旺盛，将导致大西洋液化天然气（包括美国液化天然气）竞争加剧，对液化天然气价格构成压力。”
吴恒磊 编译自 离岸工程
原文如下：
LNG Demand in Asia to Slow Down Next Year
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand growth in Asia will slow down next year as the economic recovery stagnates and the capacity of competing fuels nuclear and coal expand in Japan and South Korea, research consultancy Wood Mackenzie said on Thursday.
LNG demand in Asia is expected to rise by 12 million tonnes per annum (mmtpa) in 2022, down from the 19 mmtpa growth in 2021, Robert Sims, head of Woodmac's LNG short-term, gas and LNG research, said in a note.
"LNG demand growth in Asia will slow down as the economic recovery decelerates, coal and nuclear capacity will increase in Japan and South Korea and more offshore domestic supply will be available in India," he added.
At the same time, global LNG supply will grow by 18 mmtpa because of new supply from the Sabine Pass Train 6 and Calcasieu Pass projects in the United States and Indonesia's Tangguh Train 3, he said. This will mean that there will be about 6 to 7 mmtpa of more LNG available for Europe, which will be 9% more than in 2021.
Still, the key to shaping market dynamics in Europe next year will be the ramp up of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, with capacity of 55 billion cubic metres per year, from Russia to Germany, Sims said, adding that it is expected to be commissioned this winter.
"Prices might soften in 2022, but market fundamentals point towards a further tightening of the global LNG market through to 2025," he said.
"With LNG demand in Asia continuing to increase and global LNG supply growth set to slow down, competition for Atlantic LNG will intensify, reducing LNG availability to Europe."
For this year, Wood Mackenzie expects demand for restocking and strong coal-to-gas switching economics to support European gas prices through the summer despite global LNG supply expected to increase by 16 mmtpa in the summer, compared with the same period last year.
"Winter will see market dynamics getting increasingly tighter," Sims said.
"Lower winter starting inventory in Europe, combined with high seasonal Asian demand, will result in increased competition for Atlantic LNG, including from the U.S., putting pressure on LNG prices".
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