欧佩克消息人士本周向《能源情报》(Energy Intelligence)表示，欧佩克将再次提醒那些未能遵守欧佩克+石油减产协议的国 家尽快提交减产计划，说明如何将近几个月超出配额的产量减至协议要求的数额。
自去年5月1日最新协议生效以来，欧佩克+联盟中有10个产油国超额生产。该消息人士告诉《能源情报》，在这10个产油国中，多达7个尚未向欧佩克秘书处提交计划，说明他们计划如何补偿违反减产的情况。
4月底欧佩克+部长级会议指出，所有国家“承诺应实现完全一致，并在延长的补偿期内弥补之前减产的不足，这一补偿期将持续到2021年9月底。”并强调了立即加速市场再平衡努力的重要性。
然而，欧佩克表示，一些国家“尚未达到完全遵守协议的最低要求，以弥补产量过剩。”
石油输出国组织的消息人士告诉《能源情报》，在这些怠于减产的国家中，只有伊拉克、赤道几内亚和加蓬已经提交了补偿计划，但俄罗斯、刚果、阿塞拜疆、文莱、 哈萨克斯坦、苏丹和南苏丹都没有提交。
据《能源情报》估计，在欧佩克+减产协议实施后的一年中，欧佩克成员国的产量超过了12万桶/天，而非欧佩克成员国的产量仅略高于其总配额的18万桶/天。据估计，在2020年5月1日至2021年4月30日期间，俄罗斯是欧佩克+产油国中产量过剩最多的，在截至4月底的一年里，俄罗斯的产量平均超过其配额8万桶/天。
根据《能源情报》的资料，俄罗斯认为符合95%-96%的减产标准就已足够平衡市场。欧佩克+的另一个关键成员国沙特阿拉伯已经开始认识到，俄罗斯坚决支持并参与减产协议的代价，就是享有不完全遵守减产协议的豁免权。
宋铁毅 编译自 今日油价
OPEC Will Force Overproducing Members To Comply And Compensate
OPEC has had to remind once again the laggards in compliance in the OPEC+ oil production deal to submit plans on how they will compensate for pumping above their respective quotas in recent months, sources at OPEC told Energy Intelligence this week.
There are 10 producers in the OPEC+ alliance who have overproduced beyond their allowances since the latest pact became effective on May 1 last year. Of those 10 producers, as many as seven have yet to submit plans to the OPEC Secretariat on how they plan to compensate for breaching their quotas, the sources told Energy Intelligence.
At the latest ministerial meeting of OPEC+, the ministers noted at the end of April that all countries “pledged to achieve full conformity and make up for previous adjustment shortfalls during the extended compensation period, which runs through the end of September 2021, and stressed the importance of accelerating the market rebalancing efforts without delay.”
The ministers, however, noted that some countries “have yet to achieve the minimum expectation of 100% conformity and to compensate for overproduced volumes,” OPEC said.
Among those laggards, Iraq, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon have submitted plans for compensation schedules, but Russia, Congo, Azerbaijan, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Sudan, and South Sudan have not, OPEC sources told Energy Intelligence.
As per estimates by Energy Intelligence, in the year after the OPEC+ pact was implemented, OPEC members overproduced by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd), while non-OPEC members produced just over 180,000 bpd over their combined quotas. Russia is estimated to be the OPEC+ producer that has overproduced the largest volume between May 1, 2020, and April 30, 2021, pumping at 80,000 bpd above its quota on average for the year to end-April.
According to Energy Intelligence’s sources, Russia thinks that complying at around 95-96 percent is good enough. The other key member of the OPEC+ alliance, Saudi Arabia, has started to accept that the lack of full Russian compliance could be the price to pay for keeping Moscow firmly supporting and participating in the production cut deal.
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