据今日油价6月3日报道，环保激进主义者要求石油巨头大幅减少排放，并将战略转向低碳能源投资，而不是石油和天然气，这可能在不远的将来，导致油价飙升。尽管环保人士和激进的股东们希望大型国际石油公司进一步削减上游投资，但世界能源体系还没有准备好剥离大型石油公司正在勘探和开发的油气资源。目前，全球80%的能源仍由化石燃料来满足，无论净零排放目标是否实现，全球向低碳能源的过渡将需要几十年，而不是几年。
对大型石油公司当前战略方向的指责，为气候活动家可能忽视的一些意想不到的后果埋下了伏笔。这些后果包括在无意中给予欧佩克更多的全球石油市场控制权。国有石油公司们(其所在国家的环保政策要比石油巨头所在的欧美国家弱得多)将急于填补供应缺口。
此外，在开发新资源方面的投资大幅减少，要知道，在2020年油价暴跌后，这种投资已经很低了，可能会导致未来的供应紧张。当石油供应难以跟上需求时，这将反过来导致油价飙升。
一些人可能会说，石油需求无论如何都会下降，世界对石油供应的需求也不会像过去10年那样大。但目前没有迹象表明石油需求正准备大幅下降，尽管存在一厢情愿的想法和净零假设，包括国际能源署(IEA)的一份爆炸性报告，该报告指出，如果世界要在2050年达到净零排放，就不需要批准今年计划以外的任何新的石油和天然气投资。
但需要注意的是，即使全球气温上升2摄氏度，对新石油的投资仍将是重要的。伍德麦肯兹(Wood Mackenzie)分析师表示，新的低成本、低碳原油将是必要的，以替代成熟油田不断减少的产量。伍德麦肯兹指出，如果来自国际石油公司的投资不足，国有石油公司将加紧探明新资源并将其商业化。
如果大型石油公司听从环保主义者的呼吁和国际能源署“不再进行新的石油和天然气投资”的建议，那么在一个能源转型刚刚开始、仍需要石油和天然气来运作和支持经济体的世界里，石油供应将受到严重限制。
挪威石油和天然气协会（Norwegian Oil and Gas Association）表示：“如果需求没有像国际能源署在其设想中所假设的那样迅速下降，同时供给端被掐断，全球能源供应可能受到威胁，并导致能源价格变得非常高。”。挪威是西欧最大的石油生产国，其环境标准比欧佩克的石油生产国更为严格，其石油排放量是世界上最低的国家之一。
在欧洲，石油巨头们正准备在未来几十年里减少排放，并逐步降低石油产量，以兑现到2050年实现净零排放的承诺。然而，这些公司也意识到，石油和天然气的利润将为他们的“能源转型”投资组合买单。
原道达尔首席执行官Patrick Pouyanné表示：“我们需要停止生产石油，这很好，但如果不再有足够的项目或产量，将会发生什么呢？我们也需要慎重考虑。”
Rystad energy表示，过去十年来，大型石油公司的储量有所下降，但即使是欧洲的大型石油公司，也继续依赖以油气销售为主导的商业模式。这些公司都承诺成为净零排放的能源企业。
Rystad energy负责上游研究的副总裁Parul Chopra表示:“如果储量不足以维持生产水平，企业将难以为昂贵的能源转型项目提供资金，从而导致其清洁能源计划放缓。”
早在股东和气候维权人士发出迄今最大的警告之前，大型石油公司就已经意识到投资低碳能源的必要性。然而，如果石油巨头在当前计划之外大幅削减未来的石油供应，或者按照环保人士的要求“不开采”石油，这将导致油价飙升，也将使世界上大部分的石油供应掌握在欧佩克+手中。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Climate Revolt Against Big Oil May Lead To Surge In Crude Prices
The surge in climate activism demanding that Big Oil drastically cut emissions and shift strategies to investment in low-carbon energy instead of oil and gas could result in a surge in oil prices in the not-too-distant future. As much as environmentalists and activist shareholders want the major international oil firms to slash upstream investment further, the world’s energy system is not ready yet to deprive itself of the oil and gas resources that Big Oil is exploring and developing. As it stands, 80 percent of global energy is still being met by fossil fuels, and net-zero emission targets or not, the global transition to low-carbon sources of energy will take decades, not just years, and a shareholder meeting or two.
Last week’s rebuke of Big Oil’s current strategic direction sets the stage for some unintended consequences that climate activists may have overlooked.
These consequences include unintentionally giving OPEC even more control over the global oil market. National oil companies—in countries where environmental policies are much weaker than in the U.S. and Europe where the oil supermajors are based—will be all-too-eager to step up and fill in the supply gap.
Then, significantly reduced investments in developing new resources—which are already low after the 2020 oil price collapse—could lead to a supply crunch down the road. This will, in turn, result in an oil price spike when oil supply struggles to catch up with demand.
Some would argue that oil demand would fall anyway, and the world wouldn’t need as much supply as it did over the past decade. But there are currently no signs that oil demand is getting ready for a drastic fall, despite wishful thinking and net-zero scenarios, including the one from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) bombshell report that suggested no new investment in oil and gas needs to be approved beyond this year’s commitments if the world is to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Investment in new oil will continue to be important, even if the world gets on the 2 degrees Celsius pathway. New low-cost, low-carbon barrels will be necessary in order to replace dwindling production from maturing fields, Wood Mackenzie analysts said last week. If these investments from international oil firms are insufficient, the national oil firms will step up to prove and commercialize new resources, WoodMac notes.
If Big Oil were to heed all the calls from environmentalists and the IEA’s suggestion of ‘no new oil and gas investment ever again’, oil supply would be severely constrained in a world that is only at the beginning of its energy transition and still needs oil and gas to function and support economies.
“If demand does not decline as rapidly as the IEA assumes in its scenario, and the supply side is simultaneously choked off, global energy provision could be threatened and lead to very high energy prices,” said the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association, the professional body and employers’ association of the industry. Norway, Western Europe’s biggest oil producer, has more stringent environmental standards than OPEC’s producing countries and pumps oil at one of the world’s lowest emissions levels.
In Europe, oil majors are preparing to reduce emissions and gradually slow oil production over the coming decades as per their net-zero by 2050 pledges. However, those firms are also aware of the fact that it will be oil and gas profits that will pay for their ‘energy transition’ portfolios.
“It’s nice to say that we need to stop producing oil, but if there are no longer enough projects or production, what will happen? Prices will rise,” Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive at TotalEnergies, formerly Total, told France’s Europe 1 radio on Monday.
Over the past decade, Big Oil’s reserves have dropped, but even Europe’s majors, all of which have pledged to become net-zero emission energy businesses, continue to rely on business models dominated by oil and gas sales, Rystad Energy said in a report last month.
“If reserves are not high enough to sustain production levels, companies will find it difficult to fund expensive energy transition projects, resulting in a slowdown of their clean energy plans,” said Parul Chopra, vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy.
Big Oil had already awakened to the need to invest in low-carbon energy even before last week’s biggest wake-up call from shareholders and climate activists so far. Yet, aggressive reductions—or ‘keeping it in the ground’ as environmentalists demand—in future oil supply beyond the oil majors’ current plans would lead to oil price spikes. It would also leave most of the world’s supply in the hands of OPEC and Russia.
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