据今日油价6月2日报道，对于油气行业来说，这是一个艰难的时期。石油巨头最近受到了来自四面八方的攻击，从全球转向可再生能源的不合作的金融家和投资者，还有强硬的气候活动家。虽然世界上主要的石油出口经济体不一定像石油巨头那样成为焦点，但这种转变可能会对那些依赖石油的经济体产生毁灭性的影响。
在上个月与41位世界领导人举行的虚拟气候峰会上，美国公布了一项雄心勃勃的十年气候计划，提议到2030年将美国的温室气体排放量削减50-52%。这相当于美国在2015年《巴黎协定》之后承诺的26%-28%的减排目标的近一倍。
就在上周，雪佛龙股东投票决定进一步削减排放后，一些业内最知名的公司遭受了三连击，即埃克森美孚至少失去了两个董事会席位，而荷兰法院要求荷兰皇家壳牌以比此前计划更大力度和更快速度削减其温室气体排放。壳牌已经承诺到2030年减少20%的温室气体排放，到2050年实现零净排放。海牙法院要求到2030年在2019年的基础上减排45%。
环保人士利用清洁能源的发展势头和世界各国政府的重大政策变化，向石油巨头施加压力。放大来看这对整个依赖石油来推动经济的国家会发生什么？那些严重依赖石油出口的经济体将如何应对向低碳燃料的转变?
2019年，全球有40个国家出口了价值10亿美元或更多的原油，伊拉克等一些国家依赖石油销售为其90%以上的预算提供资金。依赖化石燃料的经济体占世界人口的近三分之一，排放了全球五分之一的温室气体。
现在，国际能源署(IEA)警告称，追求净零排放目标对许多石油出口国来说可能是灾难性的。
这是迫在眉睫的灾难
如果到2050年实现净零排放的目标，欧佩克将变得根据主导地位，最终将占世界产量的50%以上，因为供应将集中在少数几个国家。不幸的是，这也意味着可供分配的“蛋糕”要少得多，预计在10年多一点的时间里，这些大宗商品的年人均收入将下降多达75%。
根据国际能源署的数据，那些油气产量出口占GDP很大一部分的国家可能受到最严重的打击。然而，那些适应力最差的国家，如果销售化石燃料的收入没有得到充分管理，例如利用现金向国内其他行业进行多样化投资，或建立主权财富基金，在海外投资以获得长期收入，这些国家也将最先受到能源转型的冲击。
伊拉克或是其中之一
尽管伊拉克拥有1450亿桶已探明的原油储量，但伊拉克财政部长阿里•阿拉维(Ali Allawi)最近警告称，到2050年实现净零排放的目标对伊拉克来说可能是灾难性的。世界银行将伊拉克、赤道几内亚、尼日利亚、圭亚那、阿尔及利亚、阿塞拜疆和哈萨克斯坦列为最脆弱的产油国，原因是这些国家在石油和天然气领域的敞口较大，且相对缺乏多样化。
另一方面，一些石油巨头，如沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯，由于其更复杂的经济和更大的金融缓冲，相对而言并没有那么脆弱。在接受能源转型方面，沙特阿拉伯似乎领先于大多数欧佩克成员国。
沙特政府正在建设一个价值50亿美元的绿氢工厂，该工厂将在2025年建成后为计划中的Neom特大城市提供能源。这个Helios绿氢工厂将利用太阳能和风能产生4吉瓦的清洁能源来生产氢。但最重要的是，该工厂将很快生产出比石油更便宜的清洁氢气。
彭博新能源财经估计，到2030年，Helios的成本为每公斤1.5美元，远低于绿氢每公斤5美元的平均成本，甚至低于由天然气裂解制成的灰氢。沙特阿拉伯在绿氢业务上享有严重的竞争优势，这要归功于它在太阳能、风力和大片未使用的土地方面的优势。
在沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司最近电话会议上，该公司首席执行官告诉投资者，沙特国家石油公司已经放弃了立即发展液化天然气部门的计划，转而发展氢气。纳赛尔表示，沙特目前的计划是生产足够的天然气供国内使用，以停止发电厂燃烧石油，并将剩余的天然气转化为氢气。蓝氢是由天然气通过蒸汽甲烷重整(SMR)或自动热重整(ATR)制成的，产生的二氧化碳将被捕获并储存起来。由于温室气体被捕获，这减轻了对地球的环境影响。
去年，沙特阿美生产了世界上第一批蓝氨——从沙特阿拉伯到日本。日本——一个多山的地形和极端的地震活动使其不适合可持续可再生能源的发展的国家，正在寻找可靠的氢燃料供应商，沙特阿拉伯和澳大利亚在其候选名单上。
外汇储备缩水
然而，石油巨头们面临着一个更大的生存危机，这个危机可能会更早地波及国内:储量迅速减少。
去年，大型石油公司的已探明储量减少了130亿桶油当量，相当于其地下库存水平的15%。Rystad表示，剩余的储量将在不到15年内耗尽，除非大型石油公司能迅速发现更多的商业发现。
勘探投资迅速萎缩
全球石油和天然气公司在2020年削减了惊人的34%的资本支出，以应对需求的萎缩和投资者对该行业持续低回报的担忧。这一趋势并没有放缓的迹象:根据Rystad的数据，第一季度的探明储量为12亿桶油当量，为7年来的最低水平，只获得了少量的发现。
在加拿大油砂和美国页岩气储量大幅减少后，埃克森美孚的已探明储量在2020年比2019年减少了70亿桶油当量，降幅达30%。
与此同时，壳牌去年已探明储量下降20%，至90亿桶油当量;由于减值支出，雪佛龙损失了20亿桶石油，而BP损失了10亿桶石油。过去十年中，只有道达尔和埃尼集团避免了探明储量的减少。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Rapid Energy Transition Could Doom Oil Exporting Countries
It’s a tough time being in the oil and gas business. Big Oil has lately come under a plethora of attacks from all directions, ranging from uncooperative financiers and investors amidst a global shift to renewable energy to hostile governments and hardline climate activists.
And although the major oil-exporting economies of the world weren’t necessarily in the environmental crosshairs like Big Oil was, the shift could have a devastating effect on those oil-dependent economies.
In a virtual climate summit with 41 world leaders last month, President Joe Biden unveiled an ambitious ten-year Climate Plan that has proposed cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52% by 2030. That represents a near-doubling of the U.S. commitment of a 26-28% cut under the Obama administration following the Paris Agreement of 2015.
Just last week, some of the biggest names in the business suffered a trifecta of blows after Chevron (NYSE:CVX) shareholders voted to further cut emissions; Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) lost at least two board seats to an activist hedge fund while a Dutch court ordered Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) to cut its greenhouse gas emissions harder and faster than it had previously planned. Never mind the fact that Shell already had pledged to cut GHG emissions by 20% by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050. The court in The Hague determined that wasn’t good enough and demanded a 45% cut by 2030 compared to 2019 levels.
Things are looking decidedly murky at a granular level, with environmental activists taking advantage of the clean energy momentum and major policy changes by the world’s governments to turn the screw on Big Oil.
But what happens when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture—Entire nations that depend on oil to power their economies. How will economies that are heavily dependent on oil exports cope with the shift to low-carbon fuels?
In 2019, 40 countries across the globe exported crude worth $1 billion or more, with some like Iraq depending on oil sales to finance upwards of 90% of their budgets. Fossil fuel-dependent economies represent almost one-third of the world’s population and are responsible for a fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions.
And now the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that pursuing net-zero emissions target is likely to be catastrophic for many oil exporters.
A Looming Catastrophe
Pursuing a net-zero emissions target by 2050 would see OPEC become even more dominant and end up accounting for more than 50% of world production as supplies become concentrated among a smaller number of countries. Unfortunately, it would also mean there’s a lot less pie to go around, with annual per capita income from these commodities predicted to fall by as much as 75% in little more than a decade.
According to the IEA, countries where hydrocarbon exports make up a large part of GDP are likely to be the hardest hit.
However, countries that are the least resilient—where the revenues from the sale of fossil fuels have not been adequately managed by means such as using the cash to diversify into other domestic industries or create sovereign wealth funds that invest abroad to secure long-term revenues—will also bear the full brunt of the energy transition.
One such country is Iraq.
Despite harboring ~145bn barrels of proven crude reserves, Iraq’s finance minister Ali Allawi recently warned that pursuing a net-zero target by 2050 could be catastrophic for the country. Allawi has been desperately trying to push sweeping state and economic reforms in a bid to avert this eventuality, but has seen his efforts thwarted by a government more concerned with more prosaic matters.
The World Bank has named Iraq, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Guyana, Algeria, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan as the most vulnerable oil-producing countries due to their high exposure to the oil and gas sector and relative lack of diversification.
On the other hand, some oil giants such as Saudi Arabia and Russia are seen as being less vulnerable thanks to their more complex economies and bigger financial buffers.
A good case in point: When it comes to embracing the energy transition, Saudi Arabia appears to be ahead of most of its OPEC peers.
The Saudi government is building a $5 billion green hydrogen plant that will power the planned megacity of Neom when it opens in 2025. Dubbed Helios Green Fuels, the hydrogen plant will use solar and wind energy to generate 4GW of clean energy that will be used to produce hydrogen.
But here’s the main kicker: Helios could soon produce clean hydrogen that’s cheaper than oil.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) estimates that Helios’ costs could reach $1.50 per kilogram by 2030, way cheaper than the average cost of green hydrogen at $5 per kilogram and even cheaper than gray hydrogen made from cracking natural gas. Saudi Arabia enjoys a serious competitive advantage in the green hydrogen business thanks to its perpetual sunshine, wind, and vast tracts of unused land.
During the company’s latest earnings call, Saudi Aramco CEO told investors that Aramco had abandoned immediate plans to develop its LNG sector in favor of hydrogen. Nasser said that the kingdom’s immediate plan is to produce enough natural gas for domestic use to stop burning oil in its power plants and convert the remainder into hydrogen. Blue hydrogen is made from natural gas either by Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) or Auto Thermal Reforming (ATR) with the CO2 generated captured and then stored. As the greenhouse gasses are captured, this mitigates the environmental impacts on the planet.
Last year, Aramco made the world’s first blue ammonia shipment—from Saudi Arabia to Japan. Japan—a country whose mountainous terrain and extreme seismic activity render it unsuitable for the development of sustainable renewable energy—is looking for dependable suppliers of hydrogen fuel with Saudi Arabia and Australia on its shortlist.
Dwindling reserves
Big Oil, however, faces a bigger existential crisis that could hit home even sooner: Rapidly dwindling reserves.
Massive impairment charges saw Big Oil’s proven reserves drop by 13 billion boe, good for ~15% of its stock levels in the ground, last year. Rystad now says that the remaining reserves are set to run out in less than 15 years, unless Big Oil makes more commercial discoveries quickly.
The main culprit: Rapidly shrinking exploration investments.
Global oil and gas companies cut their capex by a staggering 34% in 2020 in response to shrinking demand and investors growing wary of persistently poor returns by the sector.
The trend shows no signs of moderating: First quarter discoveries totaled 1.2 billion boe, the lowest in 7 years with successful wildcats only yielding modest-sized finds as per Rystad.
ExxonMobil, whose proven reserves shrank by 7 billion boe in 2020, or 30%, from 2019 levels, was the worst hit after major reductions in Canadian oil sands and US shale gas properties.
Shell, meanwhile, saw its proven reserves fall by 20% to 9 billion boe last year; Chevron lost 2 billion boe of proven reserves due to impairment charges while BP lost 1 boe. only Total (NYSE:TOT) and Eni have avoided reductions in proven reserves over the past decade.
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