据OE网站6月2日报道，上周五总部位于奥斯陆的咨询公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）表示，即使全球需求在本世纪中叶大幅下降，仍将需要数以千计的新油井和数百个新油田来满足全球需求。
该公司的分析与国际能源署(IEA)的结论形成了鲜明的对比。IEA在今年5月表示，如果世界想要在本世纪中叶实现净零排放，投资者就不应该资助新的石油、天然气和煤炭项目。
IEA预计，到2050年，石油日需求量将降至2,400万桶，而雷斯塔预计将降至3,600万桶。
该咨询公司在一份报告中称，鉴于油井年均产量下降20%以上，国际石油业仍需在现有油田钻探数千口新油井，同时开发约900个新油田，总资源约为1500亿桶石油。其补充道，这些项目中的大多数预计将是重新开发、扩建或连接现有平台，这意味着由于现有基础设施被重复利用，所需的投资将是适度的。
雷斯塔称，要想在21世纪30年代实现约1,000万桶/天的原油供应，需要采取措施，因为其预测的需求下降速度要慢于IEA，该咨询机构称，IEA高估了生物燃料增长和行为变化的影响。
其补充道，即使2050年石油需求保持在3600万桶/天，也应该有可能实现将气温上升幅度较工业化前控制在1.5摄氏度以内的目标。
雷斯塔的分析可能会受到石油公司和产油国的欢迎，比如挪威，它们质疑IEA的分析，因为IEA的分析破坏了该行业在中期内继续生产石油的理由。
欧佩克曾表示，新项目投资不足可能导致油价更不稳定。
郝芬 译自 OE
原文如下：
Thousands of New Oil Wells Needed to Meet Demand, Rystad Says
Thousands of new oil wells and hundreds of new oilfields will be needed to meet global demand even if it falls sharply towards the middle of the century, Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy said last Friday.
Its analysis stands in sharp contrast to the conclusions of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which said [in May] that investors should not fund new oil, gas, and coal projects if the world wants to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.
The IEA's scenario sees oil demand declining to 24 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2050, while Rystad sees oil demand falling to 36 million bpd by the same time.
"Given that output from oil wells declines by an average of more than 20% per year, the international oil industry will still need to drill thousands of new wells in existing fields, as well as developing around 900 new oilfields with collective resources of about 150 billion barrels of oil," the consultancy said in a note.
Most of these projects were expected to be redevelopment, extensions, or tie-backs to existing platforms,
meaning the required investments will be moderate as existing infrastructure is reused, it added.
Rystad said developments were needed to deliver about 10 million bpd in the 2030s, as it saw a slower fall in demand than the IEA, which the consultancy said was overestimating the impact of biofuel growth and behavioral changes.
Even if oil demand remains at 36 million bpd in 2050, it should be possible to reach the target of limiting the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, it added.
Rystad's analysis is likely to be welcomed by oil companies and oil-producing countries, such as Norway, which have questioned the IEA's analysis as it undermines the case for the industry to carry on producing oil in the medium term.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said a lack of investments in new projects could lead to more volatile prices.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以敬意。如果您认为本站文章侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
