据世界天然气6月3日报道，国际天然气联盟（IGU）在其6月3日发布的《2021年世界液化天然气报告》中估计，全球约有89240万吨/年的液化产能有待最终投资决定。据天然气行业协会估计，另有1.373亿吨/年的天然气正在建设中或已获批开发，其中，美国的液化天然气项目占39.4%，即3.516亿吨/年；加拿大占25.5%，即2.779亿吨/年；澳大利亚和俄罗斯分别为5.6%和4.9%。
然而，IGU指出，大部分未得到最终投资决定的项目可能不会取得进展。考虑到2020年疲软的经济形势，开发商已经放弃了资本密集型的液化天然气项目，这使小型液化天然气项目成为人们关注的焦点，因为在更广泛的液化天然气行业中，这仍是一个不断增长的领域，具有巨大的潜力。
IGU解释称:“美国拟建项目的大部分产能，主要是受过去几年美国页岩气产量增长的推动。虽然大多数正在运营的美国液化天然气项目都是棕地改造项目，但目前拟议的美国液化天然气项目主要是绿地项目，包括多个中小规模的液化天然气生产线，将分阶段交付。”
加拿大的大部分产能(1.793亿吨/年)位于不列颠哥伦比亚省的太平洋西海岸，比美国墨西哥湾海岸的竞争对手更接近亚洲市场，这意味着更低的运输成本。
IGU表示:“这是加拿大西海岸拟议的液化天然气出口项目数量增加的关键驱动力，尽管多数项目仍处于早期开发阶段。由于严格的环境标准，这些液化天然气出口项目采用了各种策略来减少碳排放，以符合环境法规。”例如，基蒂马特液化天然气和Woodfibre液化天然气项目将由水力发电提供动力，而加拿大液化天然气项目的第三和第四条生产线将在液化过程中使用天然气涡轮机，以尽量减少燃料使用。
王佳晶 摘译自 世界天然气
原文如下：
892MN MT/YR OF GLOBAL LNG CAPACITY AWAITING SANCTION: IGU
There is some 892.4mn metric tons/year of liquefaction capacity awaiting final investment decisions (FIDs), the International Gas Union has estimated in its World LNG Report 2021, published June 3. A further 137.3mn mt/yr is either under construction or has been sanctioned for development, the gas industry association estimates.
However, the IGU notes that a "large portion of the pre-FID projects are likely not to progress. Given the weak economic landscape in 2020, developers have pushed back on capital-intensive pre-FID liquefaction projects and reinstated their strategies." It adds "this puts small-scale LNG in the spotlight as it remains a growing segment within the wider LNG sector with significant potential."
The US accounts for 39.4%, or 351.6mn mt/yr of the pre-FID capacity, while Canada accounts for 25.5%, or 227.9mn mt/yr. A further 5.6% is in Australia and 4.9% in Russia.
"The large inventory of proposed US projects is primarily driven by the growth in shale gas output in the US over the past few years," the IGU explains. "While most operational US LNG projects are brownfield conversion projects, the currently proposed US LNG projects are mainly greenfield projects that consist of multiple small-to-mid scale LNG trains delivered in a phased manner."
The majority of the capacity in Canada, 179.3mn mt/yr, is on the Pacific west coast of British Columbia, which is closer to Asian markets than rival schemes in the US Gulf Coast, meaning lower shipping costs.
"This is a key driver for the increase in the number of of proposed LNG export projects on the Canadian west coast, although most remain in early development stages," the IGU says. "Due to strict environmental standards, these LNG export projects have adapted various strategies to reduce their carbon emissions to comply with environmental regulations."
The Kitimat LNG and Woodfibre LNG projects will be powered by hydroelectricity, for example, while the third and fourth trains of LNG Canada will use natural gas turbines for the liquefaction process in order to minimise fuel use.
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