据美国钻井网站2021年6月7日报道，惠誉解决方案最新发布的油价展望报告显示，其麾下的国家风险与行业研究部门将布伦特原油价格预测维持到2025年不变。
惠誉解决方案6月份的报告预计，布伦特原油今年的平均价格为66美元/桶，2022年为64美元/桶，2023年为65美元/桶，2024年为70美元/桶，2025年为72美元/桶。这些预测与其5月份报告中的预测相同。
彭博共识预测，2021年和2022年布伦特原油均价为65美元/桶，2023年为64.5美元/桶，2024年为65美元/桶，2025年为65.9美元/桶。回到惠誉解决方案 5月份的报告中，彭博共识预测，2021年布伦特原油均价为64美元/桶，2022年为64.5美元/桶，2023年为65.3美元/桶，2024年为65美元/桶，2025年为66美元/桶。
惠誉解决方案的分析师在该公司6月份的油价展望报告中表示：“在2021年期间多次测试该水平以后，布伦特原油价格最终在6月1日报收于70美元/桶的关键阻力位上方。”
分析师在报告中补充道：“未来几个月，随着一系列看涨因素的形成，其中包括来自美国、欧洲等国似乎正在从新冠肺炎疫情相关逆风中复苏的市场强劲需求信号，原油价格仍有维持在这一水平以上的空间.。”
分析师说：“然而，仍存在一些下行风险，尤其是在亚洲部分地区Covid-19感染确证数再次上升。印度每日新增感染确证人数虽然比5月初的峰值减少了一半以上，但仍存在重大风险，包括负担过重的国内医疗体系和黑真菌等其他非冠状病毒传染病的出现。”
分析人士在报告中警告称，南亚和东南亚的其他几个市场也出现了感染的复发，他们强调，这已促使各国政府重新引入严格的遏制措施，包括部分封锁。
根据世界卫生组织的最新信息，截至6月6日下午4:07，全球共有1.726亿新冠肺炎确诊病例，370万人死亡。世卫组织的数据显示，截至6月2日，全球接种了超过16亿剂疫苗。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Fitch Solutions Releases Latest Oil Price Forecasts
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has kept its Brent crude forecasts out to 2025 unchanged, the company’s latest oil price outlook report has revealed.
The company’s June report sees Brent averaging $66 per barrel this year, $64 per barrel in 2022, $65 per barrel in 2023, $70 per barrel in 2024, and $72 per barrel in 2025. These forecasts are the same as the ones in the company’s May report.
The Bloomberg Consensus, which was also highlighted in the report and which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to, sees Brent averaging $65 per barrel in 2021 and 2022, $64.5 per barrel in 2023, $65 per barrel in 2024 and $65.9 per barrel in 2025. Back in Fitch Solutions’ May report, the Bloomberg Consensus saw Brent averaging $64 per barrel in 2021, $64.5 per barrel in 2022, $65.3 per barrel in 2023, $65 per barrel in 2024, and $66 per barrel in 2025.
“Brent finally closed above the key resistance of $70 per barrel on June 1 after testing that level on several occasions during 2021,” analysts at Fitch Solutions stated in the company’s June oil price outlook.
“There is scope for prices to hold above this level in the coming months with a number of bullish triggers forming on the horizon, including strong demand signals from markets that appear to be re-emerging from Covid-19-related headwinds such as the U.S., Europe,” the analysts added in the report.
“However, there are still few downside risks, not least in the form of re-surging Covid-19 infections in parts of Asia. The number of daily new infections in India have more than halved from its peak in early-May, although significant risks remain, including the over-burdened domestic healthcare system and threats from emergence of other non-Covid infectious diseases such as the black fungus,” the analysts continued.
Analysts warned in the report that a few other markets across South and South East Asia are also seeing relapses in infections, which they highlighted have prompted governments to re-introduce strict containment measures, including partial lockdowns.
As of June 6, 4.07pm CEST, there have been 172.6 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 globally, with 3.7 million deaths, according to the latest information from the World Health Organization (WHO). As of June 2, more than 1.6 billion vaccine doses have been administered around the world, WHO data shows.
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