据Oil & Gas Journal网站6月8日消息 美国能源信息署（EIA）在6月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中上调了未来几个月布伦特原油价格预期。EIA目前预计，布伦特原油价格在6月份平均为69美元/桶，2021年第三季度平均为68美元/桶，分别比上月的预测高出4美元/桶和5美元/桶。但随着预测全球石油供应缓慢超过石油需求增长，预计2021年晚些时候和2022年将出现更大的油价下行压力。
这一价格预测使油价在第三季度一直接近或略低于当前水平，并纳入了近期的价格上涨和EIA对未来几个月石油市场基本平衡的预测。
鉴于欧佩克宣布增产，EIA预计2021年下半年产量将增长更快，以跟上不断增长的需求。根据预测，从第二季度到2021年下半年，全球石油消费量增加280万桶/日，而同期全球石油产量增加430万桶/日，平衡了第二季度全球石油库存150万桶/日的下降。
然而，EIA指出，这一预测仍然受到来自新冠疫情的持续经济复苏的不确定性的影响。
王磊 摘译自 Oil & Gas Journal
原文如下：
EIA raises oil price forecast for June, Q3 2021
In its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Brent price forecast for the coming months. EIA now expect Brent prices to average $69/bbl in June and $68/bb in third-quarter 2021, $4/bbl and $5/bbl higher, respectively, than last month’s forecast. But larger downward oil price pressures are expected to emerge later in 2021 and into 2022 as forecast global oil supply outpaces slowing oil demand growth.
This price forecast keeps prices near or slightly below current levels through the third quarter and incorporates recent price increases and EIA’s forecast of mostly balanced oil markets in the coming months.
Given announced increases in production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), EIA expects production to grow more rapidly in second-half 2021 to keep pace with rising demand. In the forecast, global oil consumption rises by 2.8 million b/d from second-quarter to second-half 2021 while global oil production rises 4.3 million b/d during the same period, balancing the 1.5 million b/d of global oil inventory draws during the second quarter.
EIA noted, however, that the forecast “remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.”
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