据油价网2021年6月7日报道，彭博新闻社援引花旗集团分析师的话报道称，由于钢材、水泥和其他原材料的价格在供应趋紧的情况下不断攀升，美国页岩盆地的钻井商面临着更高的生产成本。
美国专业财经周刊《巴伦周刊》上周报导称，今年迄今基准钢制品价格上涨了差不多60%，过去12个月大涨了200%。此次基准钢制品价格上涨是由美国经济反弹推动的，但报告指出，如果价格高于生产成本，价格不可能维持太高太久。
这可能是大宗商品行业通常周期的情况，但《巴伦周刊》援引瑞士联合银行分析师Andreas Bokkenhauser的话报道说，这个周期是不同的。这个时间供给是有限的，所以只要需求强劲，价格就会上涨。
尽管该领域的大多数参与者在应对投资者的压力时表现出了财务纪律，即优先考虑回报而不是产量，美国页岩行业对钻井材料和设备的需求可能会保持强劲。
不管是否遵守财务纪律，在用的钻机数量已经从去年8月的低谷期增长了两倍。自今年年初以来，美国的在用钻机数量增加了100部。上周，贝克休斯公司发布了一周的统计数据，但长期趋势似乎仍在上升。
美国能源信息署（EIA）对5月28日结束的一周内美国石油产量的估计(最新可获得的数据)下降到了平均每天1080万桶，而2020年2月新冠肺炎疫情大流行冲击石油需求之前达到的峰值是1310万桶/天。
然而，上周，西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格一度突破每桶70美元大关，这可能会促使更多石油公司即使油价上涨仍会增加钻探活动。到底有多少石油公司会这么做还有待观察。花旗集团分析师称，他们预计今年该行业的钻探活动增加将达到12%。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Raw Material Supply Crunch Hits U.S. Shale Oil
As the prices of steel, cement and other raw materials climb higher and higher amid tightening supply, drillers in the U.S. shale patch are facing higher production costs, Bloomberg reports, citing Citigroup analysts.
Benchmark steel prices have gained as much as 60 percent in the year to date and a whopping 200 percent over the past 12 months, Barron’s reported last week. The rally was driven by the economic rebound in the United States, but the report noted that prices could not stay too high for too long, not if they are above the cost of production.
That may be the case with usual cycles in the commodity industry but, Barron’s noted, citing UBS analyst Andreas Bokkenhauser, this cycle is different. This time supply is limited, so prices have nowhere to go but up as long as demand is strong.
Demand for drilling materials and equipment will likely remain robust in the U.S. shale sector despite the financial discipline most players in that field have been demonstrating in response to investor pressure to prioritize returns over output.
Discipline or not, the number of active drilling rigs has risen twofold since the trough of last August. Since the start of this year, the number of drilling rigs in the U.S. has risen by 100. Last week, Baker Hughes reported a weekly decline, but the longer-term trend appears to remain upward.
The EIA’s estimate for oil production in the United States for the week ending May 28—the last available data—slipped to an average of 10.8 million barrels per day compared to the 13.1 million bpd peak production reached in February 2020, before the pandemic crushed oil demand.
Yet last week, WTI briefly breached the $70-per-barrel threshold, which might motivate more companies to boost drilling activity, even if prices are higher. Just how many companies would do that remains to be seen. The Citi analysts said they saw inflation in the sector hit 12 percent this year.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以敬意。如果您认为本站文章侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
