据钻机地带6月7日消息,油价自2018年10月以来首次上涨至每桶70美元,但随后出现第二次下跌。
原油期货价格周二回落至每桶69美元以下。这反映了整体市场,由于近期各种资产的飙升引发了通胀担忧,美元上涨,美国股票期货回吐涨幅。
尽管如此,石油市场对需求前景仍有信心,因为加速接种疫苗放松了旅行限制。中东的迪拜基准股指目前处于近一年来最强劲的现货溢价走势。现货溢价(backwardation)是一种表明供应紧张的市场结构。
今年,原油价格从疫情最严重时期至今涨势数度停滞,但随着全球总体需求持续改善,油价通常会回到上行轨道。然而,新冠疫情在亚洲和部分拉美国家的卷土重来提醒人们,复苏将是坎坷的。
在消费改善的同时,欧佩克及其盟国正在向市场恢复部分停滞的供应。该组织正在研究今年晚些时候需求增长的前景。
价格
截至伦敦时间上午9点56分,7月份交货的西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)下跌0.7%,至每桶68.74美元。
布伦特原油8月份结算价下跌0.7%,至每桶70.99美元.
荷兰银行高级能源经济学家汉斯•范克雅夫表示:“从需求的角度来看,有好消息,许多封锁措施都得到了放松。但欧佩克+对增加产量和向市场出口犹豫不决。”
尽管中东的市场结构正在稳固,布伦特原油和WTI原油的相应指标最近几天有所缓和。不过,这两个基准仍处于现货溢价结构,表明供应紧张。
裘寅 编译自 Rigzone
原文如下:
Oil Extends Decline as Rally Falters
Oil fell for a second session after a rally that saw prices hit $70 a barrel in New York for the first time since October 2018 faltered.
Futures dropped back below $69 a barrel on Tuesday. That mirrored wider markets where the dollar rose and U.S. equity futures pared gains as the recent surge in various assets brought on inflation concerns.
Still, in the oil market there’s confidence in the demand outlook with accelerating vaccinations allowing people to travel more. The Middle Eastern Dubai benchmark is trading in its strongest backwardation -- a market structure that indicates supply tightness -- in almost a year.
Crude’s advance from the worst of the virus has stalled a handful of times this year, but prices have usually returned to an upward track as overall global demand keeps improving. The Covid-19 comeback in Asia and parts of Latin America, however, is a reminder that the rebound will be bumpy.
While consumption improves, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are returning some stalled supply to the market. The group is looking at prospects for demand growth later this year .
Prices
West Texas Intermediate for July delivery fell 0.7% to $68.74 a barrel at 9:56 a.m. London time
Brent for August settlement was down 0.7% at $70.99.
“From a demand perspective there is good news with many lockdowns being eased,” said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro. “But OPEC+ is hesitant to add production and export to the market.”
While the market structure in the Middle East is firming, the equivalent gauges for Brent and WTI have eased in recent days. Still, both benchmarks remain in a backwardated structure, indicating tight supply.
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