据全球能源新闻网6月9日报道，日前国际能源署(IEA)发布了2021年5月石油市场报告。
在欧佩克大力限制供应近一年之后，去年新冠疫情需求冲击期间积累的庞大全球石油库存已恢复到更正常的水平。3月份， OECD工业石油库存减少了2500万桶，至29.51亿桶，与5年平均水平相比，剩余库存减少至170万桶，（比 2015-2019年多369万桶）。四月库存继续下降。
由于美国和欧洲放宽出行限制、强劲的工业活动和冠状病毒疫苗接种为燃料需求的稳步反弹奠定了基础，而欧佩克的产量远低于其原油需求，所以库存减少是不可避免的。作为回应，油价在4月至5月恢复了上涨势头。截至发稿时，洲际交易所布伦特原油期货交易价格接近69美元/桶，而WTI则徘徊在65美元/桶左右。
尽管 5 月份市场看起来供过于求，但即使全球石油供应量增加，库存量减少也将从 6 月份恢复。欧佩克的部长们已经批准了他们4月初的决定，从5月-7月增加200万桶/天的供应，其中包括逐渐恢复沙特自2月以来自愿减产100万桶/天的产量。在大规模维修结束后，加拿大、北海和巴西产量将进一步增加。到年底，世界石油产量预计将比4月份增加380万桶/日。
根据目前欧佩克的生产情景，供应增长速度将赶不上预期的需求复苏。随着疫苗接种率的上升和流动性限制的放宽，全球石油需求将从21年第一季度的9310万桶/天飙升至年底的9960万桶/天。美国和欧洲21年第一季度石油消费量低于预期，印度因近期新冠疫情病例激增而前景黯淡，这些因素导致我们将2021年的需求增长下调至540万桶/天。然而，基于印度和其他地区局势好转的假设，下半年的预测基本没有变化。
印度的新冠疫情危机提醒人们，石油需求前景充满不确定性。在疫情得到控制之前，市场波动可能会持续。
郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网
原文如下：
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND SET TO SOAR FROM 93.1 TO 99.6 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2021
The IEA (International Energy Agency) released its Oil Market Report for May 2021.
After nearly a year of robust supply restraint from OPEC, bloated world oil inventories that built up during last year’s Covid-19 demand shock have returned to more normal levels. During March, OECD industry oil stocks drew by 25 mb to 2 951 mb, reducing the overhang versus the five-year average to only 1.7 mb (and 36.9 mb above 2015-19). Stocks continued to fall in April.
Draws had been almost inevitable as easing mobility restrictions in the United States and Europe, robust industrial activity and coronavirus vaccinations set the stage for a steady rebound in fuel demand while OPEC pumped far below the call on its crude. In response, oil prices resumed their upward trajectory during April and into May. At the time of writing, ICE Brent futures traded near $69/bbl while WTI hovered around $65/bbl.
While the market looks oversupplied in May, stock draws are set to resume from June, even with global oil supply on the rise. OPEC ministers have endorsed their early April decision to boost supply by more than 2 mb/d from May to July, including a gradual return of 1 mb/d of Saudi production shut in on a voluntary basis since February. Further gains will come from Canada, the North Sea and Brazil after hefty maintenance is concluded. By year-end, world oil production is forecast to rise by 3.8 mb/d from April.
Under the current OPEC production scenario, supplies won’t rise fast enough to keep pace with the expected demand recovery. As vaccination rates rise and mobility restrictions ease, global oil demand is set to soar from 93.1 mb/d in 1Q21 to 99.6 mb/d by year-end. Weaker-than-expected 1Q21 oil use in the United States and Europe and a reduced outlook for India due to the recent surge in Covid-19 led us to revise down 2021 demand growth to 5.4 mb/d. The forecast for the second half of the year is largely unchanged, however, on the assumption that the situation in India and elsewhere improves.
India’s Covid crisis is a reminder that the outlook for oil demand is mired in uncertainty. Until the pandemic is brought under control, market volatility is likely to persist.
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