据钻机地带6月15日消息，由于新冠疫情危机的影响，未来两年油价上涨的条件已经成熟。
波士顿咨询集团(BCG)周一发布的一份新报告称，该公司认为，疫苗接种计划极有可能“释放全球经济关键领域被压制的巨大石油需求”。该公司表示，这种激增的需求将同时伴随着去年油价下跌时生产商大幅削减资本支出 (CAPEX) 造成的供应短缺。
BCG在报告中指出，鉴于即将到来的需求增长的快速发展，下一个超级周期的出现时间可能会比之前的价格上涨期所对应的周期要短。该公司强调，这种快速增长将给供应商和用户带来压力。
BCG在报告中表示:“因此，我们认为价格上涨发生的可能性很高，但也可能很快结束——在18个月内，甚至更短的时间内。”
“也许更重要的是，这次石油增长期可能是全球史上最后一次。石油市场体系继续变得更加灵活，供需都比过去更有弹性，这使得增长发生的可能性更小。即使出现这种情况，峰值价格也可能会更低。”BCG在报告中补充道。
BCG警告称，有几个因素可能会影响增长的时机，抑制或加剧未来的价格上涨。该公司强调，进一步的封锁限制或新冠病毒变种的出现可能会立即阻止需求的上升，推迟甚至结束任何正在出现的油价上涨。
裘寅 编译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
Conditions Ripe for Oil Price Boom
As a result of the Covid-19 crisis, conditions are ripe for an oil price boom during the next two years.
That’s according to a new report published by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) on Monday, which outlined that the company sees high potential for vaccination programs to “unleash huge pent-up demand for oil in key areas of the global economy”. The company said this surging demand will coincide with a supply shortfall created by producers that cut capital expenditure (CAPEX) sharply when oil prices fell last year.
Given the rapid development of the upcoming boom, the next supercycle will likely occur on a time scale that will be shorter than the ones associated with prior price booms, BCG noted in the report. The company highlighted that this quick rise will put pressure on suppliers and end users.
“We therefore see a high probability that a price boom will occur but also that it could be over quite quickly - within 18 months, or even less,” BCG stated in the report.
“Perhaps more important, this oil boom could be the world’s last. The oil market system continues to become more flexible, with both supply and demand more elastic than in the past, making booms less likely to happen. And even if they do occur, peak prices are likely to be lower,” BCG added in the report.
BCG warned that several factors could affect the timing of a boom and either curb or exacerbate future price rises. Further lockdown restrictions or the appearance of new Covid-19 variants could immediately halt upward demand movement and delay or even end any emerging oil price boom, the company highlighted.
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