据天然气资讯6月16日消息称，液化天然气长期合同市场和液化天然气现货市场走势相反。全球能源咨询公司Wood Mackenzie表示，当需求将明显超过卡塔尔和俄罗斯的新供应时，长期买家市场才可能结束。
2025年后开始的液化天然气合同市场上的买家有很多选择，因为可供选择的数量超过了他们的需求。但那些在 2025 年之前需要大量现货的公司面临更高的现货价格和昂贵的短期交易。
但是有一个可能的解决方案。这些购买者可以使用超长期合同来链接短期和长期市场。一份过渡性合同可能会在未来5年给买家更低的价格，以换取卖家获得长期合同的保障。
Wood Mackenzie 全球液化天然气总监 Giles Farrer 表示：“目前，6月和7月运往东北亚的现货价格平均在12美元/百万英热(Btu)左右，为6年多来夏季的最高水平。
“尽管天然气价格明年可能短暂下跌，但Wood Mackenzie预计，这种涨势将在未来5年延续，因为亚洲液化天然气需求的增长将超过全球液化天然气供应的增长，将把大西洋的供应拉入太平洋，导致市场吃紧。”
朱佳妮 摘译自 天然气资讯
原文如下：
Wood Mackenzie: Long-term LNG set to remain a buyers’ market
The LNG long-term contract market and LNG spot market are travelling in opposite directions. The long-term buyers’ market is only likely to end when it becomes clear that demand will outstrip new supply available from Qatar and Russia, global energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said.
Buyers in the market for LNG contracts starting after 2025 are spoilt for choice – there are more volumes available than they need. But those who need volumes before 2025 face higher spot prices and expensive short-term deals.
But there is a possible solution. These purchasers may be able to use long-er-term contracts which ‘bridge’ the short- and long-term market. A bridging contract would potentially give buyers lower prices over the next five years in exchange for the seller receiving the security of long-term contracts.
Giles Farrer, Director, global LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Spot prices are presently averaging around US$12/million Btu for June and July delivery into North East Asia, their highest at this point in the summer for over six years.
“While prices may briefly dip next year, Wood Mackenzie expects this rally to extend over the next five years because rising Asian LNG demand will outstrip global LNG supply growth, pulling Atlantic supply into the Pacific and tightening the market.”
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