据全球能源新闻网6月15日报道，美国能源情报署（EIA）在6月份发布的《短期能源展望》(STEO)中预测，全球布伦特原油价格将在今年年中稳定，第三季度平均每桶68美元左右，2022年降至平均每桶60美元。5月份布伦特原油均价为68美元/桶，较1月份的均价上涨了25%。
EIA代理署长Stephen Nalley表示，未来几个月，我们预计全球石油产量将赶上2021年的需求增长。随着因新冠疫情对全球经济的担忧开始缓解，美国和全球石油生产商正在增加产量，这应该有助于缓和已大幅上涨的油价。
据EIA预计，2021年全球石油和液体燃料消费将增长6%，总计9770万桶/天，2022年将进一步增长4%，达到1.013亿桶/天。为了应对全球需求的增长，我们预测2022年美国原油日均产量将达到1180万桶，较2020年增长4%。我们预计2022年欧佩克的日产量将达到2870万桶，较2020年增长12%。
EIA表示：
•我们预计，从4-9月的夏季驾驶季节，美国普通汽油零售均价将为每加仑2.92美元。我们预计今年夏季汽油月平均价格将在6月达到每加仑3.03美元的峰值。
•我们预计2021年和2022年美国小规模太阳能发电能力将增加9吉瓦。
•我们将2021年美国煤炭产量预测修改为6亿短吨，比5月份的预测增加了3%，因为我们提高了煤炭出口和库存水平的预测。
郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网
原文如下：
BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICES TO STABILIZE THEN DECLINE AS OIL PRODUCTION INCREASES
EIA (US Energy Information Administration) forecasts in the June release of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that global Brent crude oil prices will stabilize in mid-2021 and average about $68 per barrel (b) in the third quarter before decreasing to an average of $60/b in 2022. Brent crude oil prices averaged $68/b in May, a 25% increase from January’s average.
“In the coming months, we expect global oil production to catch up with the increases we’ve seen in demand in 2021,” said EIA Acting Administrator Stephen Nalley. “U.S. and global oil producers are increasing their production, which should help moderate oil prices that have increased significantly as global economic concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic have begun to ease.”
The EIA expect global petroleum and liquid fuels consumption to grow by 6% in 2021, totaling 97.7 million barrels per day (b/d), and increase a further 4% in 2022, reaching 101.3 million b/d. In response to this increase in global demand, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 11.8 million b/d in 2022, up 4% from 2020. We expect OPEC production to reach 28.7 million b/d in 2022, an increase of 12% over 2020.
The EIA said:
• “We expect U.S. regular retail gasoline prices to average $2.92 per gallon for the summer driving season, which runs April through September. We expect monthly average gasoline prices this summer to peak in June at $3.03 per gallon.
• We forecast an increase of 9 gigawatts of U.S. small-scale solar electricity capacity in 2021 and 2022.
• We revised our forecast of U.S. coal production in 2021 to 600 million short tons, a 3% increase from our May forecast, because we raised our forecast of coal exports and inventory levels.”
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