据阿纳多卢新闻6月11日消息称，全球能源咨询公司Wood Mackenzie周三表示，假设到2030年每兆瓦时电价为30美元，到2028年至2033年，绿色氢将能够与化石燃料竞争。
Wood Mackenzie 的首席分析师 Ben Gallagher表示，在过去18个月里，一个日益活跃的低碳氢市场见证了政府的支持、企业的承诺、已宣布的项目，甚至旁观者的兴趣。
他说，这项活动相当于一种范式转变，将使用可再生能源电解水产生的绿色氢成为能源转型的关键要素。
Gallagher说，越来越多的关注净零目标有利于绿色氢。
Gallagher指出：“去年我们看到了全球脱碳的决定性支点，这对零碳技术是非常积极的。” 日本、韩国和加拿大最近宣布的净零减排目标，以及美国对《巴黎协定》的重新承诺，表明应对全球变暖的政策势头现在势不可挡。
由于绿色氢是一个主要受益者，Gallagher说电解低碳生产现在占整个氢管道的67%。
Gallagher表示，欧盟去年宣布的绿色复苏一揽子计划专门拨出1500亿欧元用于绿色氢。
他说:“这一财政承诺伴随着电解槽产能的具体目标——在2020年至2024年期间，第一阶段装机容量为6吉瓦，到2030年第二阶段装机容量为40吉瓦。”
Gallagher说，直接的结果是，欧洲目前正在推动增长，占整个低碳氢管道的79%。然而，他警告说，这种主导地位将是暂时的，因为包括日本、韩国和加拿大在内的17个国家已经宣布了一项氢战略、路线图或愿景，与全球走向净零目标的趋势一致。
他说，在2020年第二和第三季度的大流行相关投资下降之后，低碳氢的投资再次上升，仅2021年第一季度在氢市场的投资就至少达到45亿美元，并宣布了55个项目。
制造能够大规模生产绿色氢气的更大电解槽的能力是实现该行业快速扩张的关键因素。
Gallagher表示，在降低成本方面，这也具有通常的规模优势。“我们自己的估计是，假设2030年的电价为30美元/兆瓦时，到2028年至2033年，绿色氢将与化石燃料竞争。”
朱佳妮 摘译自 阿纳多卢新闻
原文如下：
Green hydrogen to be cost competitive with fossil fuels up to 2033
Green hydrogen will be able to compete with fossil fuels by 2028 to 2033, assuming a $30 per megawatt-hour power price in 2030, global energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said Wednesday.
An increasingly dynamic low-carbon hydrogen market has seen a deluge of government support, corporate commitments, announced projects, and even bystander intrigue over the past 18 months, said Ben Gallagher, a lead analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
This activity amounts to a paradigm shift that will see green hydrogen, created from the electrolysis of water using renewable energy, emerge as a key element of the energy transition, he said.
Gallagher said a growing focus on net-zero targets favors green hydrogen.
"The last year has seen a decisive pivot towards decarbonization globally which is extremely positive for zero-carbon technologies," Gallagher noted, adding that recent announcements of net-zero targets from Japan, South Korea and Canada, along with the US recommitting to the Paris Agreement, show policy momentum to tackle global warming is now unstoppable.
As green hydrogen is a key beneficiary, Gallagher said electrolysis-based low-carbon production now makes up 67% of the overall pipeline for hydrogen.
Gallagher said the EU’s Green Recovery Package announced last year specifically earmarked €150 billion for green hydrogen.
"This financial commitment was accompanied by specific targets for electrolyser capacity – 6 GW [gigawatts] in the first phase between 2020 and 2024, with 40 GW to be installed by the end of the second phase in 2030," he said.
As a direct result, Europe is currently driving growth, representing 79% of the overall low-carbon hydrogen pipeline, Gallagher said. However, he cautioned that such dominance would be temporary, as 17 countries, including Japan, South Korea and Canada, have announced a hydrogen strategy, roadmap, or vision in line with the global trend towards net-zero targets.
After a pandemic-related dip in the second and third quarters of 2020, investment in low-carbon hydrogen is once again on the up with at least $4.5 billion invested in the hydrogen market in the first quarter of 2021 alone, with 55 projects announced, he said.
The ability to manufacture ever-larger electrolyzers that can produce green hydrogen at scale is a key factor in enabling the rapid expansion of the sector.
Gallagher said this also has the usual benefits of scale in terms of bringing down costs. “Our own estimates are that green hydrogen will be competitive with fossil fuels by 2028 to 2033, assuming a US$30/MWh power price in 2030.”
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