据今日油价6月15日报道，两家大宗商品交易巨头在俄罗斯的一个石油项目上押下了重注，这一罕见举动或将决定了石油交易商的命运，石油市场观察人士应该密切关注这一动向。当大宗商品交易巨头托克(Trafigura)收购俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft) Vostok Oil项目10%的股份时，油价还在每桶50美元以下。当时，有人预测，石油需求可能永远无法恢复到新冠肺炎疫情爆发前的水平，而且石油产业总体上正在削减。
如今，托克的同行维托尔(Vitol)也加入了对东西伯利亚原油的投资。Vitol与Mercantile & Maritime组成一个财团，上周与俄罗斯石油公司达成协议，收购该大型项目5%的权益。路透社将该项目与上世纪70年代西伯利亚西部的石油开发以及最近美国巴肯(Bakken)的石油开发进行了比较。
Vostok Oil项目完全配得上其“超级项目”的称号。据估计，Vostok项目的原油储量为26亿吨，相当于约190亿桶，一旦满负荷生产，该项目涵盖的油田每年可生产至多1亿吨原油。俄罗斯石油公司估计，这些油田的储量高达440亿桶。
开发这个庞大项目的成本仅为1400亿美元(10万亿卢布)。这样的价格，在油价为每桶35-40美元的情况下，该项目仍有望盈利。
一些中长期预测显示，由于能源转型，油价将维持在这个水平。然而，并非所有人都同意这一观点，尤其是在大家都目睹了主要消费市场的石油需求反弹速度非常快的情况下。布伦特原油价格目前超过每桶72美元，就连西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)本周也突破了每桶70美元的大关。已经有人在谈论油价会达到每桶100美元了，不过这个预测结果可能需要做些调整。
俄罗斯石油公司首席执行官伊戈尔•谢钦(Igor Sechin)本月初在主题演讲中表示:“世界在消费石油，但还没有准备投资。石油巨头减少石油和天然气勘探和生产的低碳计划，将导致供应短缺。这种趋势(较低的上游投资)可能成为全球专业油气公司的‘新常态’，并导致基础资源枯竭，世界面临着石油和天然气严重短缺的风险。”
不可否认的是，领导开发东西伯利亚数十亿桶石油储备的公司负责人在预测供应不足的情况下，有既得利益，这将确保这一大型项目的可持续性开发。不过，谢钦并不是唯一一个预测石油和天然气会因新产量投资不足而出现供应不足的人。
国际能源署（IEA）在5月曾呼吁，最迟在今年年底或2022年之前，停止新的石油和天然气勘探投资，令能源界震惊。IEA表示，如果世界希望达到2050年的净零目标，减少投资是必须的。但在其最新的月度石油报告中，该机构呼吁欧佩克+提高产量，以避免油价进一步飙升，同时还上调了今年和明年的需求预期。
这意味着，即使是对石油需求的短期预测，也存在着挑战，那么对长期石油需求的预测将更具挑战性。因此，托克和维托尔所做的这个投资，是大宗商品交易商为长期石油需求做规划的罕见例子。
路透社在一篇报道中指出，大宗商品交易商直接投资上游油气项目的做法并不常见。然而，Vostok项目显然是个例外，因为它为这些交易商提供了全球主要需求增长市场，即亚洲的长期稳定供应。
欧洲正在进行能源转型，美国则有所滞后。但在亚洲最大国家，尽管拥有大量风能和太阳能发电能力，原油仍将发挥关键作用。而俄罗斯的东西伯利亚油田通过北海航线距离很近，这将保持石油的竞争力。
托克以88.3亿美元(73亿欧元)的价格收购了Vostok项目10%的股份，其中大部分资金来自一家俄罗斯银行的贷款，但这位大宗商品交易商确实将自己的18.2亿美元(约合15亿欧元)现金押在了这个俄罗斯项目上。有关维托尔交易的细节尚未披露，但托克的股权价格在一定程度上表明了第二笔交易的价值。
当一家大宗商品交易商罕见地对一个油气生产项目进行直接投资时，这一点值得引起关注。尤其是在就政治方面的胜算似乎与石油产业发展背道而驰的时候，仍这么做，此类投资的消息就变得更加重要。这意味着政治方面来说是一回事，实际能源需求又是另一回事。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Two Top Commodity Traders Bet Big On The Future Of Oil
Two commodity trading giants are betting big on a Russian oil project in a rare move that could make or break the oil traders’ fates - and oil market observers should be paying close attention. When commodity trading major Trafigura bought a 10-percent stake in Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project, oil prices were trading below $50 per barrel. There were also forecasts that oil demand may never recover to pre-pandemic levels and that oil, in general, was on its way out.
Now, Trafigura’s peer Vitol has joined the company in its bet on eastern Siberian crude. Vitol, in a consortium with Mercantile & Maritime, sealed a deal with Rosneft last week for the acquisition of a 5-percent interest in the megaproject. Reuters has compared the project with the oil development of western Siberia in the 1970s and the U.S. Bakken play more recently.
Vostok Oil fully deserves its megaproject title. With reserves estimated at 2.6 billion tons of crude, equal to some 19 billion barrels, the group of fields that the Vostok Project spans could produce up to 100 million tons of crude annually once it reaches full capacity. Rosneft itself estimates the reserves of the fields at up to 44 billion barrels.
The cost of developing the vast project is only fitting, at some $140 billion (10 trillion rubles) throughout its lifetime. Even with such a price tag, the project is expected to be profitable at an oil price of $35-40 per barrel.
Some medium- to long-term oil price forecasts see oil at these levels because of the energy transition. However, not all agree, especially now that we are all witnessing how fast oil demand is rebounding in key consuming markets. Brent crude is trading at more than $72 per barrel, and even West Texas Intermediate this week crossed the $70 threshold. There is already talk about $100 oil. Forecasts may need to be revised.
“The world consumes oil, but is not ready to invest in it,” Rosneft’s chief executive Igor Sechin said earlier this month in his keynote speech. In the same speech, Sehin warned that Big Oil’s low-carbon plan to reduce oil and gas exploration and production would lead to a deficit of supply.
“This trend [of low upstream investment] may become a ‘new norm’ for global majors and result in resource base depletion. The world runs the risk of facing an acute deficit of oil and gas,” Sechin said.
Of course, the head of the company leading the development of all those billions of barrels in eastern Siberian oil reserves has a vested interest in forecasting a deficit that would ensure the sustainability of the megaproject. The thing is, Sechin is far from the only one predicting a deficit of oil and gas due to low investments in new production.
The International Energy Agency last month shocked the energy world by calling for an end to new oil and gas exploration investment by the end of this year or 2022 at the latest. This would be required, the IEA said, if the world hopes to reach its 2050 net-zero goals. Yet in its latest monthly oil report, the same agency called on OPEC+ to boost production to avoid a further spike in oil prices. It also revised up its demand outlook for this year and next.
What this means is that even short-term forecasts about oil demand are a challenge. If they are a challenge, then it would be reasonable to suggest that long-term demand forecasts would be even more challenging. And what Trafigura and Vitol are doing is a rare example of commodity traders planning for long-term oil demand.
Reuters noted in a report on the Vitol news that it is not common practice among commodity traders to invest directly in upstream oil and gas projects. However, Vostok Oil is obviously an exception because it offers them access to long-term stable supply for the world’s key demand growth market: Asia.
The energy transition is underway in Europe and, with a lag, in the United States. But in Asia, for all the wind and solar generation capacity of the biggest country, crude oil will continue to play a pivotal role. And Russia’s eastern Siberian fields are a comfortably short distance away via the Northern Sea Route, which will keep the oil competitive.
Trafigura paid some $$8.83 billion (7.3 billion euro) for its 10 percent in Vostok Oil. Most of the money came from a loan from a Russian bank, but the commodity trader did wager $1.82 billion (1.5 billion euro) of its own cash on the Russian project. Details about the Vitol deal have not been disclosed, but the Trafigura stake price tag is some indication about the second deal’s value.
When a commodity trader makes a rare direct investment in an oil and gas production project, it is worth noting. When the commodity trader does it at a time when the odds—at least the political odds—seem to be stacked against oil, the news of such an investment becomes even more important. It means that politics is one thing and actual energy demand reality is another.
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