据6月15日Rigzone消息：原油市场上一些知名交易员一致表示，原油价格在今年迄今上涨近50%后将继续攀升。
周二，纽约期货价格上涨1.8%，达到2018年10月以来的最高水平。在英国《金融时报》全球大宗商品峰会上，嘉能可(Glencore)和维托尔集团(Vitol Group)均表示，他们预计油价将进一步上涨。Trafigura首席执行官Jeremy Weir称，由于该行业投资及供应不足，原油价格甚至有可能达到每桶100美元。
Again Capital合伙人John Kilduff表示："所有人都在计算需求上升和生产商不愿重返市场、向市场注入更多石油的问题。因此，结构性供需缺口正在不断扩大。"
随着新冠肺炎疫苗接种计划的加速，原油价格今年大幅上涨。在英国《金融时报》全球大宗商品峰会上，嘉能可(Glencore)的Alex Sanna表示，全球需求应在明年第三季度恢复正常，而原油价格可能因更广泛的疫苗接种和通胀压力而走高。Vitol首席执行官Russell Hardy表示，尽管柴油和石化产品需求已经处于疫情前水平，但油价仍有"更多上行空间"。
与此同时，资金继续更广泛地流向大宗商品领域。美国银行对基金经理的月度调查显示，看涨大宗商品的押注已经超过比特币，成为市场上最拥挤的交易。
价格:
7月交货的西德克萨斯中质原油价格上涨1.24美元，收于每桶72.12美元。8月份交割的布伦特原油期货上涨1.13美元，收于每桶73.99美元。
进一步看石油期货曲线，市场出现了供应紧张的迹象。周二，最近的两份西德克萨斯中质原油12月份合约的价差收于每桶6美元以上，为2019年9月以来的最高收盘水平，这表明交易员押注市场将走强。
彭博社的一项调查显示，美国上周的原油库存预计已下降250万桶。由行业资助的美国石油协会将在周二晚些时候报告其库存数据，而美国政府将在周三公布其库存数据。
Kilduff说:“从不断减少库存和让我们在全球范围内恢复紧缩的角度来看，现在是关键时刻。”
然而，在夏季驾驶季节开始之际，国内燃料需求却显得有些低迷。美国汽油供应目前处于三个月高位，汽油裂解价差约为三个多月低位。
瑞穗证券期货部门主管Bob Yawger表示，在5月份colonial管道关闭后，运营商的汽油进口量可能超过了需求。
冯娟 摘译自 Rigzone
原文如下：
Oil Price Rally for 2021 Approaches 50%
Oil climbed as a chorus of prominent traders in the crude market said prices will continue to rise after a nearly 50% rally so far this year.
Futures in New York advanced 1.8% on Tuesday to the highest level since October 2018. At the FT Commodities Global summit, Glencore Plc and Vitol Group both said they see further gains in oil. There’s even a chance crude prices could hit $100 a barrel on a lack of supply amid underinvestment in the sector, according to Trafigura CEO Jeremy Weir.
“Everybody’s continuing to do the math on rising demand and hesitancy among producers to dive back in and put more oil in the market,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, LLC. “So there’s a developing structural supply-demand deficit.”
Crude has soared this year in the wake of accelerating Covid-19 vaccination programs. At the FT Commodities Global summit, Glencore’s Alex Sanna said global demand should return to normal in the third quarter of next year, and crude prices may move higher on more widespread vaccinations and inflationary pressures. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said while diesel and petrochemical demand is already at pre-Covid levels, there is a “little bit more upside” for oil prices.
Meanwhile, money continues to rotate into the commodities sector more broadly. A monthly survey of fund managers by Bank of America showed that bullish commodities bets had overtaken Bitcoin as the most crowded trade in markets.
Prices:
West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery advanced $1.24 to settle at $72.12 a barrel.
Brent for August settlement gained $1.13 to end the session at $73.99 a barrel.
Further along the oil futures curve, there are signs of market tightness. The difference between the nearest two WTI December contracts on Tuesday closed at more than $6 a barrel, the strongest close since September 2019, a sign traders are betting on a stronger market.
In the U.S., crude stockpiles are expected to have dropped 2.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will report its inventory data later Tuesday, while the U.S. government will release its tally on Wednesday.
“It’s crunch time here in terms of drawing down continuously on inventories and getting us back to tightness globally,” said Kilduff. “That’s helping to grind higher.”
However, domestic fuel demand has been somewhat lackluster at the start of the summer driving season. U.S. gasoline supplies are currently sitting at the highest in three months and the gasoline crack spread, a rough measure of the profit from refining crude into fuel, is at around the lowest in more than three months.
Operators may have juiced imports of gasoline more than needed in the wake of the Colonial pipeline shutdown back in May, according to Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities.
“You would think with crude oil ripping like this, it would drag the products along for the ride and it almost always does,” said Yawger. “You rarely see a disconnect this bad.”
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