据2021年6月21日今日石油网站消息，咨询公司伍德麦肯兹最近就未来油气勘探的相关性做了一项分析。目前，能源公司正面临纠正自身行动、为能源转型让路的压力。在这种情况下，分析人士早就得出结论，诸如圭亚那和苏里南等能够提供低成本、轻质原油的省份，最有可能在未来几年实现回报最大化。
“石油和天然气需求仍有可能持续几年。在这种情况下，我们希望通过勘探找到新的资源，以弥补现有油田产量的逐年递减。”该公司董事长、首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯表示。
他说，石油公司在勘探上的投入要少得多。十年前，传统勘探是投资组合更新和增长的核心。在2011-2015年，这些巨头平均每年花费160亿美元用于勘探和评估。2015年油价暴跌带来的金融压力和资本约束，严重打击了勘探投资。在2020年负油价期间，勘探支出更是减少了三分之二，降至50亿美元。
“这是我们首次开始看到石油巨头们对勘探产生了不同程度的投入。能源转型对投资的影响越来越大，战略也出现了分歧。勘探仍是埃克森美孚、道达尔和埃尼的核心业务。相形之下，BP有最积极的计划去碳业务。”弗劳尔斯指出。
2020年，英国石油公司将上游预算的6%用于勘探，而且可能会进一步缩减。该公司在大幅缩减上游业务方面仍在袖手观望，因此勘探工作也受到了影响。他说:“这可能还需要几年的时间，但最终，其他公司也会逐渐减少上游的勘探活动。”
与此同时，埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)和道达尔(Total)等石油巨头一直在加大对那些可以在较低盈亏平衡点上提供轻质原油的资产的投资。
在这方面，埃克森美孚在圭亚那海域的Stabroek区块取得了重大成功，自2015年以来，该公司与合资企业Hess等合作，在那里发现了超过90亿桶的储量(boe)。该公司已经在丽萨油田第一阶段开发中开始生产石油，第二阶段计划于2022年初投产，第三阶段计划于2024年在Payara油田进行开发。预计到2025年，Yellowtail将开始生产，日产量将超过80万桶。
自2015年以来，圭亚那的探明资源总量排名第一，苏里南取得了巨大的飞跃。
在苏里南，道达尔和阿帕奇合作伙伴在58区块发现了4个油田，预计到2025年将交付第一桶油。雷斯塔能源估计，目前已发现的储量约为14亿桶油当量，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)表示，该区块储量可能超过65亿桶。
到2030年，苏里南的石油产量预计将达到65万桶/天。
伍德麦肯兹表示，即使油价低至50美元，勘探仍是非常有利可图的，特别是如果能专注于能够迅速商业化的前景，则收益更大。
弗劳尔斯说表示：“挪国油的约翰斯维尔德鲁普大油田(2010年)、埃尼的祖尔气田(2015年)、埃克森美孚在圭亚那的多个深水石油发现(2015年)和道达尔在苏里南的巨型发现(2019-2020年)迅速成为他们上游投资组合的王冠上的宝石。”
未来最大的吸引力在于深水，这里蕴藏着世界上大多数可开采的尚未发现的资源，以及具有创造物质价值潜力的巨大远景构造。
曹海斌 编译自 今日石油
原文如下：
Guyana, Suriname will eat up more deep water investments as majors double down
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Consultancy group Wood Mackenzie did a recent analysis on the relevance of future oil and gas exploration in a world where energy companies are being pressured to clean up their act and give way to the energy transition. Under these circumstances, analysts have long concluded that provinces capable of delivering low-cost, cleaner barrels such as Guyana and Suriname, are best positioned to maximise returns in the coming years.
“There is still a likelihood that oil and gas demand hold up for some years. In that case, we’ll want exploration to find new resource to offset the natural decline in production from existing fields,” says Simon Flowers, Chairman, Chief Analyst and author of The Edge at WoodMac.
He said the majors are spending a lot less on exploration. A decade ago, conventional exploration was central to portfolio renewal and growth. In 2011-2015, the Majors together spent an average of US$16 billion a year on exploration and appraisal. The collapse in oil prices in 2015 led to financial pressures and capital discipline that hit exploration hard. Spend shrank by two-thirds, dipping to just US$5 billion in the crisis of 2020.
“For the first time, we’re starting to see differing levels of commitment among the Majors. The energy transition is increasingly influencing investment, and strategies are diverging. Exploration is still core to ExxonMobil, Total and Eni. In contrast, BP has the most aggressive plans to decarbonise its business,” Flowers points out.
BP spent just 6% of its upstream budget on exploration in 2020 and may shrink it further. The company is an outlier in radically downsizing upstream, with exploration collateral damage. “It could be years away, but eventually others too will wind down upstream and with it, exploration,” he said.
In the meantime, majors such as ExxonMobil and Total have been doubling down on assets that promise to deliver lighter oil at lower breakevens. Exxon has had significant success in this regard at the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana where it has found over 9 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) since 2015 in partnership with co-venturers Hess. The company is already producing oil at the Liza Phase 1 Development with a second phase set to come onstream by early 2022 and a third development at the Payara field targeted for 2024. By 2025, production at Yellowtail is expected to commence, pushing output to over 800,000 bpd.
Guyana ranks first for total resources discovered since 2015, Suriname takes giant leap
In Suriname, Total and partner Apache have made 4 discoveries at Block 58 and are expected to deliver first oil by 2025. Rystad Energy estimates the discoveries made so far amount to around 1.4 billion boe and Morgan Stanley says the block could hold over 6.5 billion boe.
Suriname production expected to hit 650,000 bpd by 2030
WoodMac said exploration can still be very lucrative, even at US$50/bbl, particularly if concentrated on prospects that could be commercialised swiftly.
“There are also the game changers, reminders of what exploration can do, even for a Major,” Flowers said. “Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup (2010), Eni’s Zohr (2015), ExxonMobil’s multiple deepwater oil finds in Guyana (from 2015) and Total’s giant discoveries in Suriname (2019-2020) have quickly become the jewels in the crown of their upstream portfolios.”
The big attraction is deep water, home to most of the world’s accessible yet-to-find resource and the giant prospects with the potential to create material value.
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