据今日石油2021年6月18日报道，圭亚那的石油日产量预计到2025年前将超过80万桶。专家们表示，在需求增长、供应减少的情况下，圭亚那有望成为创造全球石油市场平衡的关键产油国。
6月17日，美国石油学会(API)首席经济学家迪安·福尔曼博士在当地商业发展中心(CLBD)主办的网络研讨会上表示，在新冠肺炎疫情大流行席卷全球期间，世界各地的经济体纷纷关闭，严重影响了石油行业。他表示，由于石油行业仍在努力恢复，全球石油需求持续反弹，可能在2022年及以后达到新的高点。
《经济学人》指出，根据研究，2021年第一季度全球油气行业的投资为380亿美元，低于2019年每季度650亿美元的水平。尽管预计欧佩克+和美国的原油供应将增加，但美国能源信息署(EIA)预计，今年全球石油需求可能继续超过供应。这可能导致油价在2022年上涨到60美元/桶左右。
然而，福尔曼博士说，随着圭亚那提高原油产量，该国将从原油出口中显著受益。
福尔曼博士表示，“圭亚那有机会随时随地直接进入全球石油市场。圭亚那来的正是时候，因为全球石油市场需要这些原油。全球对圭亚那原油的需求正在复苏，而圭亚那有能力生产中等重量、中等比重、相对较轻的低硫原油，这将有助于欧洲、北美和亚洲的炼油厂。”“所以，圭亚那原油有广泛的吸引力，这似乎是一个机会，对圭亚那来说，如果它能继续沿着可持续的道路，继续通过发现更多的石油来刺激进一步的原油产量增长。所以，随着这一进展，预计这是圭亚那的一个巨大的机会。”
当埃克森美孚公司在斯塔布鲁克区块的Yellowtail开发项目在2025年投产时，丽莎大油田一期开发项目的石油日产量将达到12万桶，Liza二期的日产量将为22万桶，而帕拉亚大油田的日产量将为22万桶。
福尔曼博士指出，除了创造全球平衡之外，圭亚那还将受益于转型发展，如果管理得当，圭亚那将从原油出口中获得丰厚收入。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Guyana can become key player on global oil market with increased production – API’s Chief Economist
With Guyana expected to produce more than 800,000 barrels of oil per day by 2025, experts say that the country can become a key producer in creating global oil market balance as the demand grows and supply shrinks.
Chief Economist at the American Petroleum Institute (API), Dr. Dean Foreman, during a webinar hosted by the Centre for Local Business Development (CLBD) on Thursday, said the shutdown of economies around the world during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, drastically affected the oil sector. With the sector still trying to recover, he said that the global oil demand has continued to rebound and could reach new heights in 2022 and beyond.
The Economist noted that based on studies, the first quarter of 2021 has seen a lowly US$38B investment in the global oil and gas sector when compared to $65B per quarter in 2019. Despite the projected OPEC+ and United States supply increases, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that global oil demand could continue to exceed supply through 2021. This can lead to the rise of oil prices to about US$60 per barrel in 2022.
However, with Guyana ramping up its production, Dr. Foreman said the country stands to significantly benefit from this.
“Guyana has an opportunity to plug and play directly into the global oil market. Guyana is coming at a perfect time where there is a need for these barrels. There is a recovering global demand on the economy [and Guyana has] the ability with a medium weight, medium gravity, relatively light sweet crude oil, which will help refiners in Europe, North America and Asia,” he said. “So, you have broad appeal, and it seems like it is an opportunity for the nation if it can continue to stay on a sustainable path to continue to incentivise further growth with the additional oil finds…So, with this progress, you expect that it is a tremendous opportunity.”
When ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail Development Project at the Stabroek Block comes on stream in 2025, it will add 250,000 bpd to the 120,000 bpd from Liza Phase 1, 220,000 bpd from Phase 2 of the Liza Development and 220,000 bpd from Payara.
Dr. Foreman noted that in addition to creating a global balance, Guyana stands to benefit from transformation development with the revenues it will earn, if it is prudently managed.
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