据油价网2021年6月14日报道，国际能源署(IEA)在其最新月度石油市场报告中称，全球石油需求将回升至新冠肺炎疫情大流行前水平，并在明年年底前超过此水平，达到1.006亿桶/天。
然而，这只有在“没有进一步的政策变化”的情况下才会发生。
IEA称，今年全球石油日需求将增加大约540万桶，明年将放缓至310万桶。
IEA称，石油供应也将增加，明年非欧佩克产油量将在美国的推动下日增160万桶。预计明年美国石油日产量将增加90万桶。
IEA表示：“这为欧佩克+留出了空间，在2021年7月至2022年3月的目标基础上，将原油日产量提高140万桶，以满足全球需求增长。”
IEA指出，这对卡特尔应该不是问题。即使欧佩克根据生产控制协议从下月开始将产量提高200万桶/天，其成员国仍将有690万桶/天的备用产能。
今年早些时候，IEA发现，全球石油需求用了一年多的时间才回升到大流行前的水平。但6月早些时候，IEA署长法提赫·比罗尔告诉彭博社，全球石油需求复苏的速度快于此前的预期。因此，除非欧佩克+在7月前恢复每日200万桶原油供应的基础上，再向市场供应更多原油，否则油价将随着缺口的扩大而走高。
与此同时，IEA在其月度报告中指出，这一预测为其在5月份发布的2050年前净零排放路线图中概述的目标提出了挑战。
IEA指出，全球石油需求似乎将继续上升，这突显出要实现既定目标，需要付出巨大努力。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下；
IEA Sees Oil Demand Hitting 100.6 Million Bpd By End-2022
Global crude oil demand will rebound to pre-pandemic levels and exceed them, clocking in at 100.6 million barrels daily by the end of next year, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.
This, however, will only happen “in the absence of further policy changes.”
This year, demand will grow by some 5.4 million bpd, the agency said, which next year will slow down to 3.1 million bpd.
Supply will also increase, the IEA said, with non-OPEC production growing by 1.6 million bpd next year, driven by the United States. U.S. oil production is expected to rise by over 900,000 bpd next year.
“That leaves room for OPEC+ to boost crude oil production by 1.4 mb/d above its July 2021-March 2022 target to meet demand growth,” the IEA said.
This should not be a problem for the cartel, the authority noted. Even after the group boosts output by 2 million bpd starting next month per its production control agreement, it would still leave members with a combined spare capacity of 6.9 million bpd.
The IEA earlier this year saw oil demand taking longer than a year to rebound to pre-pandemic levels. But earlier this month, its executive director Fatih Birol told Bloomberg that demand was recovering faster than previously expected. So unless OPEC+ puts additional barrels on the market on top of the plans to restore 2 million barrels per day by July, oil prices will head higher as the gap widens.
At the same time, the IEA noted in its monthly report that this forecast presents a challenge for the goals it outlined in its Net Zero by 2050 roadmap, released in May.
The agency said. “in the meantime, oil demand looks set to continue to rise, underlining the enormous effort required to get on track to reach stated ambitions.”
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