据油价网6月18日消息：欧佩克消息人士在该组织政策会议结束时表示，尽管油价高达70美元，但预计美国页岩油生产商今年不会大幅提高原油产量，因为它们将继续专注于规范的资本支出，并向投资者返还更多现金。
欧佩克经济技术智囊团经济委员会本周召开会议，评估全球石油市场和全球经济形势。该委员会还将审查投资、复苏预期、原油生产的短期和长期前景等议题。
欧佩克消息人士称，其中一次会议有外部行业专家参加，会议的重点是美国页岩和美国以外的供应前景。普遍的观点是，尽管油价高企，但页岩地区不会急于加快活动和生产率，从而导致市场供过于求和油价下跌。
预计2022年的产量增长将在50万桶/天至130万桶/天之间。
近几个月来，美国石油日产量一直徘徊在1,100万桶左右，较2020年初的创纪录高点下降了200万桶。
美国页岩生产商第一季度财报和电话会议突显出此前闻所未闻的上市公司的克制。上市生产商创造了创纪录的现金流，但他们并没有将其中大部分再投资于钻探。相反，页岩运营商现在正将现金流用于减少债务和回报股东。
据消息人士称，投资纪律是本周会议的重点之一。
如果今年美国经济增长有限的预测能够实现，那么美国对页岩气的限制将使欧佩克管理石油市场供应的工作变得容易得多。
其中一家向欧佩克提供预测的公司的消息人士称：“欧佩克和沙特阿拉伯目前拥有很大的权力。”
冯娟 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
OPEC Doesn’t Expect More U.S. Shale Oil Production
Despite $70 oil, U.S. shale producers are not expected to significantly raise crude production this year as they continue to be focused on disciplined capital expenditures and returning more cash to investors, OPEC sources told Reuters at the end of policy meetings of the organization.
OPEC’s economic and technical think-tank, the Economic Commission Board, met this week to take stock of the situation on the global oil market and the global economy. The board was also expected to review topics such as investment, expectations about recovery, and short- and long-term prospects of crude oil production.
One of the meetings, attended by external industry experts, focused on U.S. shale and the prospects of supply out of the United States, sources at OPEC told Reuters. The general view was that the shale patch will not be rushing into accelerating activity and production rates despite the high oil prices—something it has regularly done in the past, contributing to market oversupply and lower oil prices.
For 2022, the views range from production growth of between 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 1.3 million bpd.
U.S. production has been hovering at around 11 million bpd in recent months, down by 2 million bpd from the record highs early in 2020, before the pandemic slammed demand and crashed oil prices.
The first-quarter earnings and conference calls of U.S. producers highlighted a previously unheard-of restraint from public shale firms. Listed producers generated record cash flows, but they are not reinvesting most of those back to drilling. Instead, shale operators are now channeling cash flow toward reducing debts and rewarding shareholders.
According to Reuters’ sources, the investment discipline was one of the highlights of the meetings this week.
The U.S. shale restraint makes OPEC’s job of managing oil supply to the market much easier, if forecasts of limited U.S. growth this year pan out.
“OPEC and Saudi Arabia have a lot of power at this time,” a source at one of the companies which provided forecasts to OPEC told Reuters.
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