据6月21日Rigzone消息：美国银行表示，随着旅行需求回升，明年油价可能飙升至每桶100美元，这是迄今为止各大预测机构对油价回归三位数的最强烈呼吁。
世界银行在一份报告中表示，随着经济从大流行中复苏，燃料消耗量增加，全球石油消费将在2022年继续供过于求，而对新生产的投资因环境问题而受到抑制。
该行驻纽约的大宗商品研究主管Francisco Blanch表示:“有大量被压抑的石油需求准备释放。”布伦特原油期货价格周一接近每桶74美元。
虽然从贸易公司托克集团到高盛集团等其他市场观察人士已经表示，在合适的条件下，油价可能会再次达到100美元，但美国银行的预测是迄今为止最坚定的。
如果原油价格真的回到三位数，这将是自2014年以来的第一次，当时北美页岩油泛滥导致市场陷入暴跌，至今未能完全恢复。
日益看涨的石油前景给沙特和俄罗斯领导的欧佩克+联盟增加了压力，该联盟将于下周开会，考虑恢复疫情期间减产的部分产量。
汽车旅行
据美洲银行称，欧佩克+联盟的近期前景是光明的。
由于公共交通难以跟上额外的旅行需求，促使乘客更多地使用私家车，明年石油消费将得到提振。
该行表示，即使是远程工作的持续普及也不会像预期那样减少油耗，因为在家办公的人白天开车去处理个人事务。
Blanch表示，在很多情况下，从家工作意味着‘开车上班’。
与此同时，世界银行预计新的石油供应仍将受到限制。股东将迫使大公司投资可再生能源，或推动页岩钻探商返还现金，而不是将资金用于新的钻探。
尽管如此，人们对2022年市场吃紧的预期远非一致。国际能源署本月早些时候的一份报告显示，预计需求增长的一半可以通过恢复欧佩克以外的产量来满足，主要来自美国。
冯娟 摘译自 Rigzone
原文如下：
BofA Says Oil May Hit $100 Next Year
Oil may surge to $100 a barrel next year as travel demand rebounds, Bank of America Corp. said, the strongest call yet among major forecasters for a return to triple digits.
Global oil consumption will continue to outstrip supply in 2022 as the economic recovery from the pandemic boosts fuel consumption, while investment in new production is crimped by environmental concerns, the bank said in a report.
“There is plenty of pent-up oil demand ready to be unleashed,” said Francisco Blanch, the bank’s New York-based head of commodities research. Brent futures traded near $74 a barrel on Monday.
While other market-watchers, from trading house Trafigura Group to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., have already said that oil could reach $100 again in the right conditions, the prediction from Bank of America is the firmest to date.
If crude does return to triple digits, it will be the first time since 2014, before a flood of North American shale oil sent the market into a slump from which it has never fully recovered.
The increasingly bullish outlook for oil is adding to pressure on the OPEC+ coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which meets next week to consider reviving some more of the production it cut during the pandemic.
While Riyadh has signaled it prefers to move cautiously, an ever-tighter world market could compel the alliance to open the taps a little. Prices have been stoked this month as fellow OPEC member Iran fails to clinch an agreement to relieve U.S. sanctions on its petroleum exports.
Car Travel
According to Bank of America, the immediate prospects for the OPEC+ alliance are bright.
Oil consumption will be bolstered next year as mass transit struggles to keep pace with extra travel demand, prompting passengers to make greater use of private cars.
Even the ongoing popularity of remote working won’t dent fuel consumption as much as expected, as home-workers use cars during the day to run personal errands, the bank said.
“Work-from-home means ‘work-from-car’ in many cases,” Blanch said.
At the same time, the bank expects that new oil supplies will remain constrained. Shareholders will pressure major companies to invest in renewable energy, or push shale drillers to return cash rather than spend on new drilling.
Still, expectations for a tight market in 2022 are far from unanimous. A report from the International Energy Agency earlier this month showed that half of the projected increase in demand can be met by recovering output outside OPEC, predominantly from the U.S.
That would leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners with significant quantities of idle output -- and even more if Iran can strike a nuclear accord with the U.S. by then.
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