据油价网6月18日消息称，彭博资讯估计，由于严格的资本支出和较高的油价，2021年美国页岩气生产商预计将产生总计300亿美元的自由现金流。
今年，页岩生产商继续严格控制支出，并没有在新钻井上进行再投资，投资金额不会超过其赚得的现金流。
在经历了2015-2016年的低迷后，回到2017年，就连Harold Hamm也警告其他油气生产商要小心，因为“钻井公司不想勘探到破产。”
去年的疫情开启了分析师所说的美国页岩的“新时代”，在这个时代，股东回报和偿还债务优先于产量增长和创纪录的产量。
根据德勤去年的估计，自第一次页岩繁荣以来的15年里，美国页岩行业损失了3000亿美元的净负现金流，而今年预计从自由现金流中获得的意外之财仅仅是这个数字的十分之一。
尽管如此，对今年自由现金流的预期让分析师们乐观地认为，美国页岩领域正处于转折点，并将至少在一到两年内保持自律。
ESAI能源公司北美上游分析师Elisabeth Murphy告诉彭博社:“从财务角度来看，页岩正进入一个新的、更好的时代，盈利能力更高。”
美国生产商第一季度的收益和电话会议凸显了上市页岩油公司前所未有的克制。上市生产商创造了创纪录的现金流，但他们并没有将其中大部分再投资于钻井。相反，页岩运营商现在正在将现金流用于减少债务和回报股东。尽管第一季油价大涨逾20%，但美国页岩气并未违背限制产量和优先考虑回报的承诺。
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
U.S. Shale Set For Record $30 Billion Free Cash Flow In 2021
U.S. shale producers are expected to generate a combined $30 billion in free cash flow in 2021 amid disciplined capital spending and higher oil prices, estimates from Bloomberg Intelligence show.
This year, shale producers continue to adhere to disciplined spending and is not reinvesting in new drilling more than the cash flows it earns.
After the 2015-2016 downturn, back in 2017, even Harold Hamm warned his fellow oil and gas producers to be careful as “drillers don’t want to drill themselves into oblivion.”
The pandemic last year started what analysts have begun to call “a new era” for U.S. shale where returns to shareholders and paying down debts take precedence over production growth and record output.
The expected windfall from free cash flow this year is just one-tenth of the $300 billion in net negative cash flow the U.S. shale industry had lost in the 15 years since the first shale boom, as per Deloitte estimates from last year.
Nevertheless, the expectations of free cash flow this year make analysts optimistic that the U.S. shale patch is at a turning point and will keep discipline for at least another year or two.
“From a financial perspective, shale is entering a new, better era, with higher profitability,” Elisabeth Murphy, ESAI Energy LLC upstream analyst for North America, told Bloomberg.
The first-quarter earnings and conference calls of U.S. producers highlighted a previously unheard-of restraint from public shale firms. Listed producers generated record cash flows, but they are not reinvesting most of those back to drilling. Instead, shale operators are now channeling cash flow toward reducing debts and rewarding shareholders. Despite the first-quarter rally of over 20 percent in oil prices, U.S. shale did not break the promises to keep a lid on production and prioritize returns.
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