据油价网6月24日消息：分析师和交易员在接受彭博社调查时表示，市场普遍预计欧佩克+联盟下周将决定进一步放松减产，但 8月份的额外供应可能仍低于市场供应短缺。
欧佩克+的部长们将于7月1日举行会议，决定如何推进石油供应市场的管理，这是自4月份以来的首次会议。分析人士预计，此 次会议将比过去三个月发出更大的声音，当时该组织开会只是为了确认其在5月至7月期间放松减产的计划。
截至7月底，该联盟每天将向市场返还210万桶原油。现在市场在等待欧佩克+的下一步行动。已经有报道称，该集团正在考虑 从8月份开始进一步放宽削减幅度。
接受彭博社调查的15位分析师中，有13位预计欧佩克+将增加原油供应，但他们的平均预期是8月份的原油日产量将增加约51万桶。彭博社指出，根据欧佩克+本身的估计，这只是8月份预期供应缺口的四分之一。
许多分析师认为，该组织不会仓促推出大量宽松措施，沙特能源部长阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼亲王也表示，对过早提供过多供应仍持谨慎态度。
阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼本月早些时候在俄罗斯的一个论坛上说：“总会有大量的供应来满足需求，但我们必须在看到供应之前了解需求。”
然而，这位部长正在执行一项打击做空者的任务，几个月来一直警告交易员不要押注石油。今年，欧佩克+两次出乎市场预期 ，因此没有人排除下周再次出现意外的可能性。
然而，阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼最近的评论表明，削减正在放缓。
他在彭博社主办的一次会议上表示:“通过确保市场不会失控，我们还可以在抑制和控制通胀方面发挥作用。”
盛宝银行周四在评论欧佩克+的反馈时表示：
“鉴于美国页岩产量没有显示出复苏迹象，该组织可以通过这一决定发出一个信号，即它是在寻求更高的价格，还是在当前水平上保持稳定。”
冯娟 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
Analysts Expect OPEC+ To Raise Oil Supply From August
The OPEC+ alliance is widely expected to decide next week to further ease the collective production cuts, but the additional supply from August will likely still be less than the supply deficit on the market, analysts and traders told Bloomberg in a survey.
The ministers of OPEC+ meet on July 1 to decide how to proceed with the management of oil supply to the market in the first meeting since April, which analysts expect with more noise than in the past three months when the group was meeting just to confirm plans it had made for easing the cuts between May and July.
The alliance will have returned a total of 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) on the market by the end of July. Now the market awaits the next move from OPEC+. Reports have already started to emerge that the group is considering further easing of the cuts from August.
Thirteen out of 15 analysts Bloomberg surveyed expect OPEC+ to add more barrels, but their average forecast is for additional supply of around 510,000 bpd from August. This is just a quarter of the expected supply deficit in August, according to estimates from OPEC+ itself, Bloomberg notes.
Many analysts believe that the group will not rush the easing with a large number, and the Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has signaled continued caution about bringing too much supply too early.
“There will always be a good amount of supply to meet demand, but we’ll have to see demand before you see supply,” Abdulaziz bin Salman said at a forum in Russia earlier this month.
The minister, however, is on a mission to wrong-foot short sellers and has been warning traders for months not to bet against oil. This year, OPEC+ surprised market expectations two times, so no one is ruling out another surprise next week.
Yet, the most recent comments from Abdulaziz bin Salman suggest that easing of the cuts is on the way.
“We have also a role in taming and containing inflation, by making sure that this market doesn’t get out of hand,” he said at a conference, carried by Bloomberg.
Commenting on the OPEC+ noise, Saxo Bank said on Thursday:
“With US shale production showing no sign of a revival, the group can through its decision send a signal whether it is seeking higher prices or stability at current levels.”
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