据今日油价6月30日报道，全球液化天然气市场已从2020年的疫情冲击中恢复。随着今年液化天然气消费量和现货价格的飙升，美国的液化天然气出口量也在迅猛增长。当前，亚洲夏季现货价格是至少6年来的最高水平，加上欧洲天然气库存非常低，从短期来看，美国2021年的液化天然气出口将获益，并有望创下纪录。这些利好因素也促使欧洲重新补充天然气库存，要知道，今年4月，一股寒流导致欧洲天然气库存一度枯竭。
目前，市场基本面显示，短期内美国液化天然气出口强劲，因为美国的供应对买家具有吸引力。但从中长期来看，美国液化天然气的吸引力到底有多大呢?
根据贝克研究所能源研究中心(CES)的研究，美国液化天然气供应在未来将继续在全球市场上扮演关键角色，这主要得益于三个方面因素:非石油关联定价、买家(尤其是欧洲部分地区)能源安全的地缘政治动机，以及其他买家(尤其是亚洲买家)从燃煤发电转向更清洁的天然气的战略规划。
莱斯大学贝克研究所的Michelle Michot Foss和Anna Mikulska在《福布斯》杂志的一篇文章中指出:“为应对能源安全风险需要多样化的供应，加上市场使用更清洁的天然气的愿望，可能会很好地维持美国对其他价格敏感客户的液化天然气出口。”
美国的液化天然气在中东欧国家很有吸引力，这些国家愿意减少对俄罗斯管道天然气和俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（Gazprom）的依赖。包括波兰和波罗的海等国家在内，它们一直渴望摆脱俄罗斯的能源影响，并继续强烈反对俄气主导的，绕过乌克兰从俄罗斯通往德国的北溪2号(Nord Stream 2)管道项目。
两年前，美国在批准增加液化天然气和出口能力的新项目时，把液化天然气出口称为“美国向世界出口自由的分子”。
美国液化天然气供应商还对定价和定期合同进行了革命性的调整，将价格与美国天然气基准Henry Hub挂钩，而不是与石油挂钩，并允许在目的地和定期合同期限方面有更大的灵活性。美国液化天然气也受益于日益激烈的液化天然气现货市场。
近几个月的油价上涨提高了与原油价格挂钩的全球液化天然气价格，使与美国天然气基准挂钩的供应更具吸引力。尽管灵活的条款和与石油相关合同的定价替代方案是美国液化天然气供应的重点，但事实上，就成本而言，美国出口产品难以与卡塔尔竞争，而且并非所有计划在美国的项目都能在未来几年进行最终投资决策（FID）。
卡塔尔决定开发世界上产能最大的项目，这对包括美国在内的其他主要液化天然气出口国来说，是降低成本的一个重大挑战。
今年年初，当卡塔尔宣布其大规模LNG扩建项目时，伍德麦肯兹研究主管贾尔斯•法勒(Giles Farrer)表示:“长期盈亏平衡价格为每百万英热略高于4美元，与俄罗斯北极地区的项目一样，处于全球液化天然气成本曲线的下限。卡塔尔正在追求市场份额。这个FID可能会给其他未采用FID的液化天然气供应商带来压力，这些供应商可能会发现卡塔尔已经在新市场站稳了脚跟。”
尽管美国液化天然气的成本和价格更高，但对一些买家来说，尤其是中欧的买家，与继续依赖俄罗斯购买大部分天然气相比，为美国供应的天然气支付更高的价格是一个较小的代价。
值得一提的是，美国LNG供应存在“致命弱点”
撇开价格和地缘政治不谈，第三个(日益重要的)因素将决定未来美国液化天然气供应的吸引力。主要发达经济体都在竞相承诺净零排放目标，而化石燃料项目的投资者和支持者则要求有可靠的减排目标和新增供应。伍德麦肯兹表示，这就是美国液化天然气出口的“致命弱点”。
美国的供应可能在非石油挂钩的定价或合同的灵活性方面具有吸引力，但其碳足迹可能会对客户构成威慑，尤其是西欧，这些国家越来越关注其进口能源的碳排放状况。
在美国，开发商已经开始押注于降低对环境的影响，与卡塔尔和澳大利亚争夺全球液化天然气出口的领导地位。伍德麦肯兹美洲液化天然气首席分析师亚历克斯•蒙顿(Alex Munton)表示:“为了赢得客户，液化天然气开发商必须采取更多行动，证明其项目的绿色资质。”
伍德麦肯兹指出，48个上游天然气生产项目需要降低排放，才能在能源转型中赢得买家。液化天然气主管贾尔斯•法雷尔(Giles Farrer)表示:“在美国上游天然气与全球盆地在碳强度方面展开竞争之前，需要多年的严格控制——无论是通过监管还是行业主导。”
在亚洲，液化天然气相对于煤炭的优势是美国出口的重点，但西欧由于排放问题而怠慢美国的供应，这可能会改变美国液化天然气开发商规划和设计出口产能的方式，使其不仅在成本方面，而且在“绿色”认证方面保持竞争力。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Can The U.S. LNG Boom Compete On A Global Scale?
The global liquefied natural gas market has recovered from the 2020 pandemic shock to energy demand. As LNG consumption and spot prices surge this year, U.S. exports of LNG are booming. In the short term, American LNG exports are set for records this year, benefiting from the highest summer spot prices in Asia in at least six years and Europe’s very low natural gas inventories. Those have prompted Europe to restock with natural gas following a harsh winter that drained inventories when a cold snap in April caused unusual additional withdrawals from storage.
Currently, market fundamentals point to strong U.S. LNG exports in the short term as American supply is attractive for buyers. But how attractive is American LNG in the medium and long term?
According to the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES), U.S. LNG supply will continue to be a key player on the global market in the future, thanks to three main aspects: non-oil linked pricing, geopolitical motives of energy security for buyers, especially in parts of Europe, and the desire of other buyers, especially in Asia, to switch from coal-fired power generation to cleaner-burning natural gas.
“The need for diverse supplies to counter energy security risk and the desire to use cleaner-burning natural gas may well sustain U.S. LNG exports to otherwise price-sensitive customers,” Michelle Michot Foss and Anna Mikulska at the Rice University’s Baker Institute argue in a Forbes article.
“Molecules of U.S. Freedom”
U.S. LNG is attractive in central and eastern European countries willing to reduce their reliance on Russian pipeline gas and Russia’s gas monopoly Gazprom. These include Poland and the Baltic states, which have been eager to shake off Russian energy influence and continue to be strongly opposed to the Gazprom-led Nord Stream 2 pipeline project from Russia to Germany bypassing Ukraine.
The previous U.S. Administration even pitched LNG exports as “molecules of U.S. freedom to be exported to the world,” when it approved two years ago new projects to add additional American liquefaction and export capacity.
U.S. LNG suppliers have also revolutionized the pricing and term contracts by linking the price to the U.S. natural gas benchmark Henry Hub instead of to oil and allowing more flexibility in destinations and periods of term contracts. American LNG also benefited from the increasingly competitive spot market for LNG.
The oil price rally of recent months has raised global LNG prices linked to crude prices and made U.S. gas benchmark-linked supply more attractive.
While flexible terms and pricing alternatives to oil-linked contracts are points for U.S. LNG supply, the fact remains that in terms of costs, American exports struggle to compete with Qatar, and not all planned projects in the United States are sure to proceed to final investment decisions (FIDs) in the coming years.
Qatar’s decision to develop the world’s largest project in terms of capacity is a major challenge to the other key LNG exporters, including America, to reduce their costs.
“At a long-term breakeven price of just over $4 per million British thermal units, it’s right at the bottom of the global LNG cost curve, alongside Arctic Russian projects,” Wood Mackenzie research director Giles Farrer said when Qatar announced its massive LNG expansion project earlier this year.
“Qatar is pursuing market share. This FID is likely to put pressure on other pre-FID LNG suppliers, who may find Qatar has secured a foothold in new markets,” Farrer added.
Despite the higher costs and prices of U.S. LNG, for some buyers, especially in central Europe, paying more for American supply is a smaller price to pay than continuing to depend on Russia for most of their gas.
“The Achilles Heel” Of U.S. LNG Supply
Prices and geopolitics aside, a third – increasingly important – factor will be shaping the attractiveness of American LNG supply going forward. Major developed economies are in a race to pledge net-zero emission targets, while investors and backers of fossil fuel projects demand solid emission-reduction goals and profiles of new supply. This is where “the Achilles heel” of U.S. LNG exports lies, according to Wood Mackenzie.
American supply may be attractive in terms of non-oil-linked pricing or flexibility in contracts, but its carbon footprint could be a deterrent to customers, especially in Western Europe, which is increasingly looking at the emission profile of the energy it imports.
In the United States, developers have started to bet on showing a lower environmental impact as they compete with Qatar and Australia for global LNG export leadership.
“To win customers, LNG developers are having to do more to prove their projects’ green credentials,” says Alex Munton, Wood Mackenzie’s principal analyst for LNG in the Americas.
Lower 48 upstream gas production needs to lower emissions to win over buyers in the energy transition, WoodMac notes.
“It’ll take years of tighter control – regulation or industry-led – before US upstream gas competes on carbon intensity with global basins,” Giles Farrer, Director of LNG, said.
The benefits of LNG over coal in Asia is a point for U.S. exports, but Western Europe’s snub of American supply because of emissions concerns is likely to change the way U.S. LNG developers plan and design their export capacity to remain competitive not only in terms of costs but also in ‘green’ credentials.
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