据6月30日Neftegaz.RU.报道，阿塞拜疆新闻社分析称，美国能源信息署（EIA）调整了对阿塞拜疆2021-2022年日均石油产量的预测。
在6月份发布的报告中，EIA将阿塞拜疆2021年的石油日产量预测下调1万桶，至73万桶。值得注意的是，根据5月份发布的报告，该机构预测2021年的石油日产量为74万桶。该机构还将阿塞拜疆2022年的石油日产量预期从79万桶下调至78万桶。
根据EIA短期能源展望报告，2021年第一季度阿塞拜疆的平均石油日产量为74万桶。与此同时，预计今年第二季度该国的平均石油日产量将达到71万桶。要知道，2020年的日均石油产量为70万桶，2020年第一、第二、第三和第四季度的平均石油日产量分别为76万、69万、66万和69万桶。
自2020年4月起，欧佩克+成员国就减少石油日产量达成协议。
此前，阿塞拜疆支持欧佩克+在5月、6月和7月达成的将原油产量提高到110万桶的协议，该协议是在第15届部长级会议上达成的。根据新的声明，该国5月份的原油日产量将维持在60.3万桶，6月份和7月份的原油日产量分别为61万桶和62万桶。
欧佩克预计，随着全球经济复苏，2021年全球石油需求将增加。欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德·巴金多(Mohammed Barkind)表示，该组织技术委员会证实了之前对全球石油需求增长的预测。
由于美国、印度和欧元区等国家的复苏，全球GDP预计在2021年增长5.5%，该组织及其盟友预计，全球原油需求将增加600万桶/天。
欧佩克官网援引该官员的话称:“与上次会议相比，对石油的预测基本没有变化，今年的平均需求预计将增长600万桶，至约9650万桶，增幅为6.6%。”
巴金多补充道:“事实上，我们预计第四季度需求将超过9900万桶/天，这将回到疫情爆发前的水平。”
2020年，欧佩克+主要产油国就限制原油产量达成的协议，是维持石油市场稳定的主要因素之一。
截至格林威治标准时间7点20分，全球油价上涨，布伦特原油交易价突破每桶75美元，美国基准WTI原油价格上涨40美分，至每桶73.41美元。
王佳晶 摘译自 RT
原文如下：
EIA changes Azerbaijan's 2021-22 oil production volume forecasts
Neftegaz.RU. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has changed its forecast for Azerbaijan's average daily oil production for 2021-2022, Azernews analysed.
The agency decreased its forecast for Azerbaijan's daily oil production for 2021 by 10,000 barrels to 730,000 barrels in its report released in June.
It should be noted that according to the report published in May, the agency forecasted daily oil production to be 740,000 barrels in 2021.
The agency also decreased its forecast of Azerbaijan’s daily oil production in 2022 from 790,000 barrels to 780,000 barrels.
According to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the average daily oil production in Azerbaijan was 740,000 barrels in the 1st quarter of 2021.
Meanwhile, the country's average daily oil production is projected to be 710,000 barrels in the 2nd quarter of the current year.
The average daily oil production was at the level of 700,000 barrels in 2020.
Thus, the average daily oil production in Azerbaijan was 760,000, 690,000, 660,000 and 690,000 barrels in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters of 2020 respectively.
Since April 2020, OPEC+ countries entered into an agreement on the reduction of daily oil production volume.
Earlier, Azerbaijan supported the OPEC+ agreement on increasing the crude oil production up to 1.1 million barrels in May, June and July, reached at the 15th ministerial meeting.
Under the new Declaration of Cooperation, the country’s daily crude oil production will be maintained at 603,000 barrels in May, 610,000 barrels in June and 620,000 barrels in July.
OPEC expects increase in global oil demand in 2021 amid world's post-pandemic recovery
The technical committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has confirmed its previous outlook concerning the growth in global demand for oil, according to the OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkind.
According to Barkind, the group and its allies expect the world’s demand for crude to increase by six million barrels per day, as global GDP is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2021 due to recoveries in such countries as the US, India along with the Eurozone.
“The projections for oil are largely unchanged from our last meeting, with demand expected to grow by six million b/d to around 96.5 million b/d on average for the year, an increase of 6.6%,” the website of the organization cites the official.
“In fact, we anticipate that demand will surpass 99 million b/d in the fourth quarter, which would put us back in the range of pre-pandemic levels,” Barkind added.
The secretary also said that the agreement on capping production of crude clinched between OPEC members and allied leading oil producers last year, is one of the major factors for sustainable oil market stability.
As of 7:20 GMT, global oil prices were rising on Wednesday with Brent crude trading above $75 a barrel, and US crude benchmark WTI up 40 cents to $73.41 a barrel.
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