据钻机网6月25日消息称，在7月1日举行的OPEC+政策会议之前的两周，石油市场将非常紧张。
这是雷斯塔能源公司的石油市场分析师Louise Dickson在周四发给Rigzone的评论中说的。雷斯塔代表在评论中指出，OPEC+预计将放松供应，要么正式提高产量目标，要么非正式地减少减产目标。
Dickson在评论中表示："如果OPEC+希望保持市场在理论上的平衡，该组织可能会在2021年8月将日产量提高至3950万桶，但随后需要在10月份的平衡需求季节将其缩减至3680万桶。
这位石油市场分析师补充称："这确实是OPEC+希望避免的供应波动风险，尤其是一旦各国被允许增加产量，就更难后退，再次收紧供应。"
Dickson在评论中强调，雷斯塔认为OPEC+的供应可能会增加。
Dickson说："虽然从理论上讲，OPEC+在8月份可能实现近300万桶的日升幅，而且市场很可能在不破坏价格完整性的情况下消化这些产量，但我们认为，如果欧佩克继续保持谨慎的态度，随着石油日产量每月50万桶的增长，其日增长量可能会更加保守，达到100万桶/日。
Dickson表示，市场可以预期，8月份炼厂产量将稳步上升，这将导致每日隐含库存减少160万桶，然后在10月份进行季节性增加，达到每日100万桶的峰值。
截至发稿时，布伦特原油价格为每桶75.39美元去年这个时候，布伦特原油价格维持在每桶41美元左右。
朱佳妮 摘译自 钻机网
原文如下：
Next 2 Weeks Will Be Extraordinarily Tight for Oil
The next two weeks ahead of the OPEC+ policy meeting on July 1 will be extraordinarily tight for the oil market.
That’s according to Rystad Energy’s oil markets analyst Louise Dickson, who made the statement in a comment sent to Rigzone on Thursday. In the comment, the Rystad representative noted that OPEC+ is expected to loosen supply, either officially with a higher production target or unofficially with compliance slippage.
“If OPEC+ wants to keep the market in a theoretical equilibrium, the group could boost production as high as 39.5 million bpd in August 2021, but then needs to scale it down back to 36.8 million bpd for October during the shoulder demand season,” Dickson said in the comment.
“This would indeed be a supply swing risk that OPEC+ would want to avoid, especially as once countries are allowed to increase production, it is harder to back-step and again tighten supply,” the oil markets analyst went added.
Dickson highlighted in the comment that Rystad sees a conservative supply boost on the cards for OPEC+.
“While OPEC+ could theoretically go for a nearly three million bpd boost in August and the market could most likely absorb these volumes without destroying price integrity, we see a more conservative one million bpd boost in the cards with a monthly 500,000 bpd ramp up should OPEC+ continue its chorus of caution,” Dickson said.
The market can expect a steady rise in refinery runs through August, which will result in a 1.6 million bpd implied stock draw, then seasonal builds, peaking at one million bpd, are expected to follow in October, according to Dickson.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude stood at $75.39 per barrel. This time last year, the price of Brent stood at around $41 per barrel.
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