据今日油价6月29日报道，拉丁美洲是全球受新冠肺炎疫情影响最严重的地区之一。根据世界卫生组织的数据，按病例数排名，巴西位列第三，按死亡人数排名，巴西是第二位。今年年初，有人担心，这种病毒的迅速蔓延将破坏巴西近海石油行业的繁荣，尤其是在能源行业工人病例激增的情况下。到2021年3月，石油和天然气产量下降，油气总产量同比下降近3%，平均每天为360万桶，且巴西的油气产量预计将进一步下降。然而，到4月份，业务开始恢复，该国的经济关键——石油产量开始上升。据巴西国家石油、天然气和生物燃料局(ANP)报告，2021年5月，巴西石油日产量为290万桶，较上年同期增长6%。天然气价格大幅上涨18%，达到平均每日846320桶。作为拉丁美洲最大的石油生产国，该地区的油气产量同比增长了8.5%，平均每天约380万桶。
巴西石油产量增长的一个关键驱动力是其盐下石油盆地的扩张。截至2021年5月，巴西盐下原油日产量接近270万桶，较去年同期显著增长14%，占巴西石油总产量的93%，占总油气产量的71%。
从巴西盐下油田开采的中低硫原油在炼油商中越来越受欢迎，特别是在亚洲，IMO 2020和其他法规大幅降低了燃料的硫含量。撰写本文时，Lula原油的API比重为27，含硫量为0.27%，比布伦特原油更重，目前其交易价格几乎比国际基准价格高出1%。
尽管缺乏公开的定价数据，但巴西Buzios原油(API比重为28，含硫量为0.31%，与Lula类似)在亚洲的交易价格通常高于布伦特原油。自2020年底以来，油价持续大幅上涨，无疑强化了这一趋势。布伦特原油价格的大幅上涨，加上巴西盐下原油价格高于国际基准价格，是推动巴西近海投资的主要动力。
巴西国家石油公司在2021年第一季度发布了一些稳定的业绩，该公司将受益于油价上涨，尤其是因为该公司专注于盈亏平衡价格低于每桶35美元的项目。巴西国家石油公司在2021年5月平均每天开采270万桶原油，较前一个月略有下降，但较上年同期显著增加了7.7%。这相当于巴西6月石油总产量的73%。巴西国家石油公司2021年5月的油气总产量环比下降1.6%，但同比增长7.7%，达到350万桶/天，占巴西油气总产量的90%以上。这家国有石油公司在降低运营费用方面取得了巨大进展，巴西国家石油公司报告称，2021年第一季度总体成本为5美元/桶，盐下油田低至2.70美元/桶，证明了巴西盐下盆地的低运营成本。
在当前的运营环境下，布伦特原油的交易价格超过了76美元/桶，这意味着公司的上游业务非常有利可图。尽管巴西国家石油公司在2020年大幅削减投资以应对油价大幅下跌，但该公司仍在继续开发巴西海上的盐下油田。在2021年至2025年期间，该公司计划投资170亿美元用于建设6个新油田和13艘FPSO。这包括为至关重要的Buzios油田增加4艘FPSO，该油田已成为巴西国家石油公司的关注焦点。
巴西海上盐下油田的低盈亏平衡价格，加上生产的中低硫等级原油的售价可能高于布伦特原油，解释了外国能源公司投资的原因。ANP的数据显示，外国石油公司投资的产能目前占巴西油气产量的五分之一。壳牌是全球最大的石油生产商，仅次于巴西国家石油公司，在2021年5月平均每天生产45万桶石油，这意味着该公司当月占巴西油气总产量的12%。壳牌的大部分产量来自Tupi、Sapinhoa和Mero盐下油田。这家综合能源巨头还对Campos盆地的C-10区块、Ostra、Abalone和Argonauta盐后油田感兴趣。壳牌今年年初宣布，计划于2021年下半年在巴西近海开展钻井活动，重点是C-10区块。
2021年，巴西预计将启动两轮招标，第一轮预计在10月份，这将是第17轮招标，原定于2020年，但由于油价暴跌而推迟。将有近100个石油区块进行招标，包括Campos盆地的15个区块、pelota盆地的50个区块、Santos盆地的13个区块和Potiguar盆地的14个区块。这些进展对巴西的海上石油繁荣来说是个好兆头，将使该国碳氢化合物产量不断增长，从而巩固这个拉丁美洲国家在全球十大产油国中的地位。国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据显示，巴西去年的国内生产总值(gdp)萎缩了4%，这波繁荣将为巴西迫切需要的经济复苏提供强大推动力。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Brazil's Oil Boom Continues Unabated
Latin America’s largest oil producer Brazil is one of the worst affected countries globally by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the World Health Organization, Brazil is the third ranked country by volume of cases and second by deaths. There were fears earlier this year that the rapid spread of the virus would derail Brazil’s offshore oil boom, particularly with a surge in cases among energy sector workers. By March 2021 petroleum and natural gas production was in decline with total hydrocarbon output falling by nearly 3% year over year to an average of 3.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Such was the severity of the pandemic and sharp increase in cases Brazil’s hydrocarbon production was expected to fall further. Nevertheless, by April operations began to recover and the country’s economically critical oil output was rising. For May 2021 Brazil’s hydrocarbon regulator, the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP – Portuguese initials), reported (Portuguese) oil production of 2.9 million barrels daily, an impressive 6% higher than a year earlier. Natural gas shot up by a stunning 18% to an average of 846,320 barrels of oil equivalent daily. The hydrocarbon output from Latin America’s largest oil producer expanded by an impressive 8.5% year over year to an average of nearly 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Branco was eventually forced to step down to be replaced by former army general Joaquim Silva e Luna. That sparked considerable fear among investors and financial markets of a resurgence in resource nationalism along with heavy-handed government intervention. A key driver of Brazil’s growing petroleum production is the expansion in its pre-salt oil basins. By May 2021 pre-salt oil production was just under 2.7 million barrels daily, a notable 14% increase compared to the same period a year earlier, making it responsible for 93% of Brazil’s oil output and 71% of total hydrocarbon production.
The sweet medium grade crude oil grades pumped from Brazil’s pre-salt oilfields are growing in popularity among refiners, particularly in Asia where IMO 2020 and other regulations have sharply reduced the sulfur content of fuels. At the time of writing this article Lula, which has an API gravity of 27 degrees and 0.27% sulfur content, making it heavier but sweeter than Brent, is trading at almost a 1% premium to the international benchmark price.
Despite a lack of public pricing data Brazil’s Buzios crude oil grade with an API gravity of 28 degrees and 0.31% sulfur content, which are similar characteristics to Lula, typically trades at a premium to Brent in Asia. The popularity of Brazil’s sweet medium crude oil grades coupled with low breakeven prices, estimated to average around $50 per barrel and be under $40 per for the major pre-salt oilfields, makes it a hot destination for foreign energy companies. This is certainly enhanced by the epic oil price rally which has been underway since late 2020. Significantly higher Brent prices coupled with Brazilian pre-salt crude oil grades selling at a premium to the international benchmark act as major incentives for investment in offshore Brazil.
Petrobras, which reported some solid first quarter 2021 results, will benefit from these higher oil prices especially because it is focusing on projects with a breakeven price of less than $35 per barrel. Brazil’s national oil company pumped an average of 2.7 million barrels of crude oil daily during May 2021, representing a slight decline from a month earlier but a notable 7.7% greater than a year earlier. That amounts to 73% of Brazil’s total petroleum production for the month. Petrobras’ overall May 2021 hydrocarbon output fell 1.6% month over month but climbed by a healthy 7.7% year over year to 3.5 million barrels per day, making the company responsible for over 90% of Brazil’s total hydrocarbon production. The national oil company has made tremendous progress with reducing operating expenses. For the first quarter of 2021, Petrobras reported overall lifting costs of $5 per barrel, which were as low as $2.70 a barrel for pre-salt oilfields, attesting to the low operating costs associated with Brazil’s pre-salt basins.
The integrated energy major’s total cost per barrel of oil produced during the quarter being a low $32 means Petrobras’ upstream operations are highly profitable in the current operating environment where Brent is trading at over $76 a barrel. While Petrobras in 2020 sharply dialed back investment in response to substantially weaker oil prices, it is pressing ahead with developing pre-salt oilfields in offshore Brazil. Between 2021 and 2025 it intends to invest $17 billion in capital expenditures to bring six new oilfields and 13 FPSOs online.
The low breakeven prices for Brazil’s offshore pre-salt oilfields coupled with the potential for the sweet medium crude oil produced to sell at a premium to Brent, explains why foreign energy companies are investing. ANP data shows foreign oil companies are now responsible for a fifth of Brazil’s hydrocarbon output. It is global supermajor Shell which is the second-largest oil producer in Brazil after Petrobras, pumping an average of around 450,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day during May 2021. That sees the Anglo-Dutch supermajor responsible for 12% of Brazil’s total hydrocarbon output during that month. Shell derives most of its production from the Tupi, Sapinhoa, and Mero pre-salt oilfields. The integrated energy supermajor also has interests in the C-10 block, Ostra, Abalone, and Argonauta post-salt fields in the Campos Basin. Shell announced earlier this year plans for a drilling campaign in offshore Brazil for the second half of 2021 with a focus on the C-10 block.
Brazil is expected to launch two bid rounds this year, with the first expected in October which will be the 17th bidding round, originally scheduled for 2020 but postponed because of the oil price collapse. There will be nearly 100 oil blocks put up for tender including 15 blocks in the Campos basin, 50 in the Pelotas basin, 13 in the Santos basin, and 14 in the Potiguar basin. Those developments bode well for Brazil’s offshore oil boom, leading to growing hydrocarbon production cementing the Latin American country’s position among the world’s top-10 oil-producing countries. The boom will act as a powerful driver of Brazil’s urgently needed post-pandemic economic recovery after its gross domestic product shrank 4% last year according to IMF data.
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