据能源世界网7月6日报道，据国际能源署（ IEA ）预测，今年印度的天然气消费量将增长4.5%，而全球需求将在反弹3.6%。
根据IEA的最新报告显示，预计到 2024 年，全球天然气需求较2019年疫情前水平将增长 7 %。由于北半球异常温和的冬季和新冠疫情的影响，全球需求在 2020 年下降了1.9%。
IEA能源市场和安全主管 Keisuke Sadamori 表示，天然气需求的反弹表明，全球经济正在从新冠疫情的冲击中恢复，天然气正在继续取代排放密集型燃料。2020—2024年，天然气需求增长的近一半来自亚太地区。
尽管印度第一季度天然气需求同比下降 5 %，但预计今年印度天然气的需求将增长4.5%。
据IEA称，正在进行的第二波疫情和高液化天然气价格造成的经济影响给我们的预测带来了下行风险。东北亚冬季能源危机后，LNG现货价格高企，抑制了需求，特别是在炼油和石化行业，据报道，一些运营商已从进口液化天然气转向液体燃料。
与新冠肺炎相关的封锁和液化天然气价格高企也影响了第二季度的需求。
在亚洲，液化天然气现货价格在第二季度同比增长超过四倍，均价达到9.8美元/百万英热单位——这是自 2014 年以来的最高值。IEA表示，印度和韩国的强劲购买兴趣，加上液化工厂计划内和计划外的停产，为液化天然气现货价格提供了上行支撑。
根据IEA的数据显示，今年下半年亚洲现货价格将接近13美元/ 百万英热单位，导致整年均价将超过11 美元/百万英热单位——这是自2014年以来的最高水平。
郝芬 译自 能源世界网
原文如下:
India’s natural gas consumption to rise 4.5% in 2021: IEA
India’s natural gas consumption will rise 4.5% while global demand will rebound by 3.6% in 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast.
By 2024, the global gas demand is forecast to be up 7% from 2019’s pre-Covid levels, according to the IEA’s latest report. Global demand dropped by 1.9% in 2020 due to an exceptionally mild winter in the northern hemisphere and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“The rebound in gas demand shows that the global economy is recovering from the shock of the pandemic and that gas is continuing to replace more emission-intensive fuels,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security. Almost half of the increase in gas demand between 2020 and 2024 comes from the Asia Pacific region.
India’s gas demand is expected to expand by 4.5% in 2021 despite a 5% year-on-year contraction in the first quarter. “The economic fallout from the ongoing second wave and high LNG prices present downside risks to our forecast,” the IEA said.
Consumption contracted in the first quarter “as high spot LNG prices in the aftermath of the northeast Asian winter energy crisis tempered demand, especially in the refining and petrochemical sectors, where some operators reportedly switched from imported LNG to liquid fuels,” according to the IEA.
Covid-linked lockdowns and high LNG prices hurt demand also in the second quarter.
In Asia, LNG spot prices more than quadrupled year-on-year in Q2 to reach an average of $9.8/MBtu—their highest Q2 average since 2014. “Strong buying interest from India and Korea, together with a combination of planned and unplanned outages in liquefaction plants, provided upward support to LNG spot prices,” said the IEA.
Asian spot prices are set to average close to $13/MBtu through the second half of the year, resulting in an overall annual average of over $11/MBtu—the highest level since 2014, according to the IEA.
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