据彭博社7月6日报道,欧佩克+谈判破裂导致原油价格上涨,股市、美国股指期货及美元持稳。
在欧洲,能源股的上涨抵消了汽车制造商股价的下跌。在美国,随着市场将在独立日假期后重新开放,股指合约持稳。
沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国之间的冲突阻止了石油供应的增加,并威胁到欧佩克+联盟的稳定,油价飙升至6年来的高点。投资者正在评估冲突升级为价格战的风险,这可能阻碍全球经济复苏,并增加通胀压力。反过来可能会成为美联储加强收紧政策的理由。
Coutts&Co.首席投资官艾伦·希金斯(Alan Higgins)表示:“油价上涨到每桶100美元的风险与短期的通货膨胀密切相关,这将使市场异常紧张。我们知道,美联储既看经济数据,也关注市场形势。”
将于周三公布的美联储最新会议纪要,可能会为美联储上月的强硬政策转向提供进一步解释。
此外,随着澳大利亚央行宣布放慢资产收购步伐,同时重申,不太可能在2024年前上调利率,使得澳大利亚债券收益率上升。同时,因市场猜测新西兰可能在今年加息,新西兰货币表现优于其他主要货币。
值得注意的是,黄金连续第五天上涨,延续了7月份的上涨势头。
王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社
原文如下:
Stocks steady with U.S. futures as oil surges
Stocks and U.S. futures were steady Tuesday as traders weighed a jump in crude oil prices after a breakdown in OPEC+ talks. A gauge of the dollar was little changed.
In Europe, gains in energy shares offset a decline in carmakers. Contracts on U.S. gauges were steady as markets were poised to reopen after the Independence Day holiday.
Oil jumped to a six-year high after a fight between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates blocked an oil-supply increase and threatened the stability of the OPEC+ alliance. Investors are assessing the risk of the conflict escalating into a price war that could hamper the global economic recovery and add to inflationary pressures. That, in turn, may strengthen the Federal Reserve’s case for tightening policy.
The risk of oil at US$100 a barrel “is so correlated with short-run inflation that it will make the market very, very edgy, and we know that the Federal Reserve is both watching the economic data but also markets,” Alan Higgins, chief investment officer at Coutts & Co., said on Bloomberg Television.
Minutes due Wednesday from the Fed’s latest meeting may provide further context on the central bank’s hawkish pivot last month.
Elsewhere, Australian bond yields rose as the central bank announced a slower pace of asset purchases, while reiterating that interest rates are unlikely to rise before 2024. New Zealand’s currency outperformed major peers on speculation that an interest-rate hike could come this year.
Gold rose for a fifth day, extending its July advance.
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