据今日油价7月6日报道，石油市场正在趋紧，并将在今年剩余时间里继续减少库存。分析师和行业专业人士表示，减产的主要原因是欧佩克+在未来几个月提供的供应低于预期的需求增长。欧佩克+预计将在8月至12月期间每日增产200万桶。前提是阿联酋与其他国家在基线生产水平上的争议僵局能够得到解决，并在本周达成协议。由于欧佩克+取消了周一上午的会议，目前看来这样的协议不太可能达成。
许多分析师认为，随着需求反弹，提议增加200万桶/天的供应量(每月增加40万桶/天)将大大低于石油市场的需求。
全球最大的独立石油交易商维托尔集团(Vitol Group)认为，尽管2021年剩余时间内，石油供应可能增长，但全球石油市场将继续收紧。
维多（Vitol）亚洲负责人迈克•穆勒（Mike Muller）周日在能源咨询公司海湾情报（Gulf Intelligence）主办的每日市场网络研讨会上表示：“我认为有一点很肯定, 无论我们看到的欧佩克+增产产幅度有多小，都将是2021年下半年，满足不断增长的需求所需数量的一小部分。”
穆勒指出:“如果我们按照上周提出的数字，即从8月到可预见的未来5个月，每月增产40万桶/天，那么现货市场前景仍将是供不应求。”全球石油库存将继续下降，因为市场对原油的需求将超过欧佩克+计划在今年剩余时间内增加的供应。
荷兰国际集团（ING）策略师沃伦•帕特森（Warren Patterson）和姚文玉（Wenyu Yao），如果在12月前每月增产40万桶/天，将对油价起到支撑作用。
几周以来，来自欧佩克（OPEC+）高层石油商的迹象和评论一直在暗示，联盟不会过快地大幅降低减产水平，因为它们可能希望看到市场比平衡的市场更紧张一些。
沙特能源大臣阿卜杜勒-阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼亲王在欧佩克+内部发出了继续保持谨慎的信号，他已经警告交易者几个月来不要做空石油。
萨勒曼6月初在俄罗斯的一个论坛上表示:“总是会有大量的供应来满足需求，但我们必须先看到需求，然后才能看到供应。”
需求反弹已经出现，美国的情况最为明显。
根据GasBuddy的数据，7月2日，美国汽油需求创下疫情爆发以来的新高，较前一个周五飙升9.3%，为2019年以来的最高单日需求。此外，GasBuddy石油分析主管Patrick De Haan在推特上表示，7月3日美国汽油需求较前一个周六增长1.9%，当周需求增长4.6%，为2019年8月以来最高水平。
对需求回升的预期令许多分析师看好石油市场，但其中很大一部分分析师警告称，欧佩克+不会让油价在每桶80美元上方过高。油价高于每桶80美元时将减缓需求增长，而因通胀影响，正在反弹的经济体将受冲击。
与此同时，世界第三大石油进口国印度再次呼吁欧佩克+放松减产措施，并停止会威胁价格敏感买家的需求复苏的油价上涨。
印度石油部长普拉丹(Dharmendra Pradhan)表示，目前每桶75美元左右的油价对印度等对价格敏感的买家来说是“具有挑战性的”。他正在“说服产油国朋友们”为一个合理的油价而努力。
尽管如此，欧佩克+在供应协议上的争吵导致的需求上升将推高油价，至少在油价测试需求破坏开始的临界值之前是这样。
沙特国家银行(Saudi National Bank)高级经济学家阿米尔汗(Amir Khan):表示“当前环境对石油的需求是不断上涨的，而供应前景的不确定性也将导致价格上涨。”
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Oil Markets Will Tighten Regardless Of OPEC's Decision
The oil market is tightening and will continue to draw down inventories for the rest of the year. This drawdown is largely due to OPEC+ offering less supply than the expected demand growth in the coming months, analysts and industry professionals say. The OPEC+ group is expected to add 2 million barrels per day (bpd) between August and December. That is if the UAE-vs-all-others standoff on baseline production levels is resolved and a deal is sealed this week. Such a deal now looks unlikely as OPEC+ called off the meeting on Monday morning.
The proposed additional supply of 2 million bpd, in monthly installments of 400,000-bpd production increases, would be considerably less than the oil market would need as demand is bouncing back, according to many analysts.
The world’s biggest independent oil trader, Vitol Group, also believes that the global oil market will continue to tighten regardless of the fact that supply is likely to grow for the rest of 2021.
“I think there’s very little doubt that whatever lessening of the OPEC+ production cutbacks we see…it will be a fraction of the amount needed to meet growing demand in the second half of 2021,” Mike Muller, head of Vitol Asia, told a daily market webinar hosted by energy consultancy Gulf Intelligence on Sunday.
“If we end up with the numbers mooted last week, which was 400,000 bpd per month, August through the foreseeable next five months…we will still have a market which has an outlook for the spot months that will see more demand than supply,” Muller noted.
As a result, global oil stocks are set to continue drawing down because markets would need more crude oil than OPEC+ is planning to add for the rest of the year, he added.
A 400,000-bpd easing of the cuts each month until December would be supportive for oil prices, ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said early on Monday.
For several weeks, indications and comments from the top oilmen in OPEC+ have been suggesting that the alliance would not ease production levels too much too soon, as they would likely want to see the market a bit tighter than what would be a balanced market.
The Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has signaled continued caution within OPEC+ as he has been warning traders for months not to bet against oil.
“There will always be a good amount of supply to meet demand, but we’ll have to see demand before you see supply,” Abdulaziz bin Salman said at a forum in Russia in early June.
The demand rebound is already here, most evident in the United States.
According to GasBuddy data, U.S. gasoline demand on Friday before the July 4 weekend hit a new COVID high, surging by 9.3 percent from the previous Friday, the highest single day for demand since 2019. Moreover, U.S. gasoline demand on July 3 rose 1.9 percent from the prior Saturday, closing out the week (Sun-Sat) with weekly demand up 4.6 percent, the highest since August 2019, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, tweeted this weekend.
Expectations of demand roaring back keep many analysts bullish on the oil market, although a large part of them warn that OPEC+ will not let oil prices run too much above $80. Oil above $80 would slow down demand growth and hurt rebounding economies with inflation.
Meanwhile, the world’s third-largest oil importer, India, called on OPEC+, again, to ease the cuts and stop the price rally threatening demand recovery from price-sensitive buyers.
Current prices, of around $75 a barrel, are “challenging” for price-sensitive buyers such as India, its Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said last week, adding that he is “persuading [his] producer friends” to work for a reasonable oil price.
Still, rising demand amid OPEC+ quarrels about a supply agreement is set to push prices higher, at least until oil tests the threshold where demand destruction begins.
“We’re in an environment where demand is rising for oil. This uncertainty about the supply outlook will feed into higher prices,” Amir Khan, senior economist at Saudi National Bank, told Bloomberg Television on Sunday.
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