据7月1日CNBC报道，一些全球最强大的石油生产国将于周四开会，决定下一阶段的原油生产政策。
在此次欧佩克+会议召开之际，正值该组织对市场状况改善和燃料需求增长前景相对乐观之际，要知道，油价在今年上半年大幅反弹。
这个以中东为主导的产油国集团同意在2020年大规模削减原油产量，以支撑油价，当时新冠肺炎疫情带来历史性的燃料需求冲击。
该组织由沙特阿拉伯领导，每月会启动会议，以指导生产政策，并宣布计划在5月至7月期间增加210万桶/天的供应。欧佩克+将在周四决定是维持当前的生产政策不变，还是进一步增加供应。
分析人士表示，最可能的结果是将8月份原油日产量增加约50万桶。
市场分析师米格利表示："欧佩克+谨小慎微，要在不影响消费者信心的情况下维持更有吸引力的价格，同时在秋季需求疲软前不增加太多供应。"
PVM石油联合公司(PVM oil Associates)的石油分析师斯蒂芬•布伦诺克(Stephen Brennock)在一份研究报告中表示:“全球石油市场要求大幅增加供应，但沙特不太可能满足市场需要。石油的回报低于预期，下半年，应该会继续减少库存。但同时，这也让市场确信，欧佩克+，或者更确切地说，沙特阿拉伯完全控制了石油市场。”
伦敦早盘交易时段，布伦特原油期货价格为每桶75.47美元，上涨1.1%。美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格为每桶74.28美元，涨幅也在1.1%左右。
今年以来，受新冠肺炎疫情形势转好，相关出行限制放宽、货物运输增加和航空旅行增加的支持，油价已上涨逾45%。华尔街的分析师认为，未来几个月仍有很大的上涨空间。
然而，新型冠状病毒在全球的传播加剧了人们对石油需求受挫的担忧。
摩根士丹利首席石油分析师Martijn Rats表示：“"我认为产油国们会相当谨慎。欧佩克在未来18个月需要把握一些真正的不确定性，比如需求复苏的准确轨迹，以及页岩行业到底会如何发展。出于这些原因，我认为他们理所当然地会采取相当谨慎的做法。”
Rats称，从历史上看，非欧佩克供应商会利用油价上涨的机会增加投资，开发更多油田，并夺回市场份额。但在当前情况下，这种情形似乎不会发生。因为，非欧佩克国家对高油价几乎没有任何投资反应。因此，欧佩克在保持油价高企方面也处于一个比较有利的地位，而不必担心最终失去市场份额的威胁。预计欧佩克+将从8月起增加约50万桶/天的原油供应。
6月，欧佩克表示，预计今年石油需求将增加600万桶/天，其中500万桶/天的产能将在2021年下半年恢复。
欧佩克秘书长巴金多在联合技术委员会会议上表示:“疫情后市场恢复的整体光明前景，已导致石油市场局势和未来增长前景显著改善。欧佩克和非欧佩克伙伴将继续在加速石油市场再平衡过程中发挥重要和有价值的作用。"
王佳晶 摘译自 CNBC
原文如下：
OPEC and allies to decide on crude production policy as oil prices climb, demand recovers
A group of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers will meet on Thursday to decide the next phase of their production policy.
OPEC and non-OPEC partners, an energy alliance often referred to as OPEC+, will convene via videoconference at 2 p.m. London time.
The meeting comes at a time when OPEC+ is relatively upbeat about improved market conditions and the outlook for fuel demand growth following a sharp rebound in oil prices over the first six months of the year.
The Middle East-dominated producer group agreed to implement massive crude productions cuts in 2020 in an effort to support oil prices when the coronavirus pandemic coincided with a historic fuel demand shock.
The group, led by Saudi Arabia, has since initiated monthly meetings in a bid to navigate production policy and has already announced plans to increase supply by 2.1 million barrels per day between May and July. It will decide on Thursday whether to leave production policy unchanged or to ramp up supply further.
Analysts say the most probable outcome is for an increase of around 500,000 barrels per day in August.
Chris Midgley, global head of analytics , told CNBC via email that “OPEC is treading a tight rope to sustain more attractive prices without hurting consumer confidence while not adding too much supply ahead of the weaker Autumn shoulder period for demand,” Midgley said.
The timing is unclear, however, and the oil would have to be absorbed into OPEC’s production total if a deal is struck.
“The global oil market is calling out for a substantial increase in supplies, but the Saudis are unlikely to oblige,” Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note.
“A smaller than expected return of oil should ensure that the market continues to draw down inventories over [the second half of the year]. But just as importantly, it also leaves the market in no doubt that the OPEC+ alliance, or better said Saudi Arabia, has full control of the oil market,” Brennock said.
Market share
International Brent crude futures traded at $75.47 a barrel during mid-morning deals in London, up 1.1%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $74.28, also around 1.1% higher for the session.
Oil prices have rallied more than 45% year-to-date, supported by an easing of Covid-related restrictions, an uptick in goods transportation and increased air travel. Analysts on Wall Street still see plenty of room left to run in the coming months.
However, the spread of the delta Covid-19 variant worldwide has heightened concerns of a setback to oil demand. Renewed lockdown measures and rising costs have already resulted in slower factory growth in China, for instance.
“I think they will play it rather cautiously,” Martijn Rats, chief oil analyst at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday.
“There are some genuine uncertainties that OPEC will need to navigate over the next 18 months, the precise trajectory of the demand recovery， And for those reasons, I think justifiably they will take a rather cautious approach.”
Historically, non-OPEC suppliers would look to take advantage of rising oil prices to increase investment, develop more oil fields and regain market share, Rats said.
“On this occasion, that doesn’t seem to be happening,” he added. “There is almost no non-OPEC investment response to these high oil prices. So, OPEC is also in somewhat of a more comfortable position perhaps to keep oil prices elevated without necessarily having to fear this historic threat of then losing market share eventually.”
Rats said he expected OPEC+ to increase supply of approximately 50 million barrels from August, “if not slightly below” this estimate.
Last month, OPEC said it expects oil demand to rise by 6 million barrels per day this year, with 5 million of that coming back in the second half of 2021.
“The overall brighter picture in relation to the pandemic recovery efforts has led to significantly improved oil market conditions and prospects for future growth,” OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said at the meeting of the Joint Technical Committee on Tuesday.
OPEC and non-OPEC partners would “continue to play an important and valuable role in accelerating the oil market rebalancing process,” he added.
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