据路透社7月7日消息，鉴于油价接近多年高位，欧佩克突然出现的混乱似乎是美国页岩油生产商锁定利润的机会，但这些公司的消息人士表示，他们不会冒着市场波动的风险。
页岩油生产商以在油价飙升时提高产量而闻名。然而，今年迄今为止，尽管油价飙升至每桶70美元以上，页岩行业仍明显受到限制。在向投资者承诺将坚持支出以提高回报后，他们一直保持较低的生产水平。
油价已超过每桶73美元，接近三年来的高点。周一，欧佩克及其盟国未能就恢复供应市场达成协议。这可能会推高油价，不过周二油价下跌，因投资者担心，如果没有达成协议，欧佩克+成员国可能会打开产量限制，这将给油价带来压力。
页岩油公司今年一直在积极对冲，以锁定价格，在油价下跌时保护利润。
然而，对冲可能代价高昂，如果油价上涨至生产商锁定的水平，就会导致资产减记。咨询公司伍德麦肯锡追踪的53家石油生产商第一季度在对冲合约上总计损失了32亿美元。
根据该公司的数据，在2021年进行石油对冲的40家运营商中，只有12家的平均对冲价格高于50美元/桶。
一位页岩油生产商高管表示:“每家银行都称油价将在90美元至100美元之间，现在没有人打算进行对冲。”
伍德麦肯锡追踪的这一集团对冲了约32%的2021年预期产量，低于一年前同期。该公司表示，生产商更有可能保持2021年剩余产量不进行对冲，以当前价格出售，并将对冲重点放在2022年。页岩油公司也承诺保持产量不变，提高投资者回报，而不是开采更多的原油。
伍德麦肯锡的首席分析师亚历克斯•比克表示“我没有看到任何来自这些生产商的信号，表明他们会在短期内增加产量……你可以增加对冲，但这并不一定意味着你明年会增加产量。”
分析师表示，股东要求提高回报的压力使本轮周期有所不同。
石油分析师Paul Sankey表示，对冲为生产商提供了一种规避风险的方式，但"这不是股东想要的"。他说，将资金投入石油生产商的投资者希望获得更高的油价敞口。
另一家页岩油生产商的一位高管表示，由于他们已承诺不扩大产量，因此在进行更多对冲之前，它们首先需要让投资者参与该计划。对冲可以为增加产出提供必要的资金。
他表示：“对我们这些公共生产商来说，一切都需要时间。”
裘寅 编译自 路透社
原文如下：
U.S. shale firms hesitate to pump - or hedge - more, despite oil high prices
OPEC's sudden disarray would seem to be an opportunity for U.S. shale producers to lock in profits, with oil prices near multi-year-highs, but sources at those companies say they are not taking chances with the market's volatility.
Shale producers are famous for boosting output whenever oil prices surge. However, the shale industry has been notably restrained so far this year even as oil surged past $70 a barrel. They have maintained a lower level of production after vowing to investors that they would hold the line on spending to boost returns.
Oil prices , are above $73 a barrel, near three-year-highs. On Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, were unable to reach an agreement on returning supply to the market. That could push oil higher, though on Tuesday prices fell with investors worried that without an agreement, OPEC+ members could open the taps, which would pressure prices.
Shale companies have been actively hedging this year, to lock in prices that protect profits if prices slump.
Yet hedges can be costly, prompting writedowns if oil prices rally past levels producers have locked in. A group of 53 oil producers tracked by consultancy Wood Mackenzie have combined losses of $3.2 billion in the first quarter on hedge contracts.
Just 12 of 40 operators with 2021 oil hedges had an average hedge price above $50 a barrel, according to the firm.
"With every bank saying that oil will be at $90-$100, no one is going to put hedges on right now," said an executive at a shale oil producer, who agreed to speak on the condition of anonymity.
The group tracked by WoodMac has hedged about 32% of expected 2021 production volumes, less than at the same time a year ago. WoodMac said producers were more likely to keep their remaining 2021 production unhedged, sell at the current prices, and focus their hedges on 2022 instead. Shale firms also have pledged to keep production flat, boosting investor returns rather than pumping more crude.
"I don't see any signals from any of these producers that they are going to grow production anytime soon ... you could be adding hedges but it doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to grow production next year," said Alex Beeker, a principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Shareholder pressure to increase returns make this cycle different, analysts said.
Hedging provides a way for producers to avoid risk, but "that is not what shareholders want," said oil analyst Paul Sankey. Investors who are putting money into producers want exposure to higher oil prices, he said.
Companies would first need to get investors on board with the plan before hedging more since they have pledged not to expand production, an executive at another shale producer said. Hedging can provide the financial wherewithal to increase output.
"For us public producers, everything takes time," he said.
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