据油价网2021年7月5日报道，Anda Insights创始人兼首席执行官、能源分析师Vandana Hari最近在接受CNBC采访时表示，石油市场参与者可能过于关注美国各州重新开放后飙升的燃料需求，他们可能忽视了疫情对其他地区需求的潜在威胁。
这位分析师说，市场可能过于关注来自美国的看涨需求消息，因此过于超前。
哈里在接受CNBC采访时表示，美国需求的反弹“也让人们对未来的预期略有不同，更加乐观。”
哈里补充说：“这可能过于乐观，但这是市场正在考虑的因素。”
这位分析师认为，今年夏天油价可能会维持在每桶70-75美元区间。 这不如高盛银行等投资银行的乐观看法。后者认为，随着石油需求迅速复苏，今年夏天的油价将达到80美元。
美国银行全球研究6月份曾表示，对未来几个月强劲需求复苏速度将超过供应的预期，可能导致油价在2022年短暂触及每桶100美元。
近几周市场上的乐观情绪，也导致全球最大的大宗商品交易商不排除油价升至每桶100美元的可能性。 尽管维多首席执行官Russell Hardy警告过度乐观的多头，称“我们目前处于一个略微人为的市场中”，但多数高管认为油价每桶100美元“当然是有可能的”。
与今年相比，对油价100美元的预测似乎在未来几年更为普遍，原因是预计将出现供应短缺，尤其是在2025年左右，在新供应方面的投资较低，而全球石油需求仍在增长。
嘉能可石油营销主管亚历克斯•萨纳6月在英国《金融时报》大宗商品全球峰会上表示：“如果你在削减供应的同时无法解决需求问题，就会出现价格混乱。”他补充称，目前看来油价达到每桶100美元的可能性比以前更大。”
萨纳称，“我们离油价的实质性飙升只有一两个事件的距离。”
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Analyst Says Market Too Optimistic about Demand
Oil market participants may have focused too much on the surging U.S. fuel demand with states re-opening, possibly ignoring the still lurking COVID threats to demand elsewhere, energy analyst Vandana Hari, founder and chief executive officer of Vanda Insights, told CNBC in a recent interview.
The market may be getting ahead of itself because it’s too focused on the bullish demand news out of the United States, according to the analyst.
The demand rebound in America “has also set expectations on a slightly different, more optimistic path,” Hari told CNBC.
“It may be too optimistic, but that’s what the market is factoring in,” she added.
According to the analyst, oil prices would likely remain in the $70-75 a barrel range in the summer. That’s less bullish than the calls of investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, which sees $80 oil this summer amid quickly recovering oil demand.
Expectations that strong demand recovery would outpace supply in coming months could lead to oil prices briefly hitting $100 per barrel in 2022, BofA Global Research said last month.
The bullish sentiment on the market in recent weeks has also resulted in the world’s largest commodity traders not ruling out the possibility of $100 oil. Most of the top executives see oil prices “higher from here” for the rest of the year, although Vitol’s CEO Russell Hardy, warned the overenthusiastic bulls that “we’re in a slightly artificial market at the moment,” when saying that $100 per barrel oil is “of course a possibility.”
Predictions of $100 oil seem to be more common for the coming years, rather than this year, due to an expected supply deficit, especially around 2025, amid low investments in new supply and still growing global oil demand.
“If you’re cutting supply without at the same time addressing your demand that is when you can get price dislocations,” Glencore’s Head of Oil Marketing, Alex Sanna, told the FT Commodities Global Summit last month, adding that $100 oil was now looking more likely than before.
“You’re really only one or two events away from a material spike in oil prices,” Sanna said.
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