据油价网2021年7月9日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)在其最新的短期月度展望报告中称，今年布伦特原油现货均价料为68.78美元/桶，并大幅调高了其对2021年和2022年的油价预期，预计全球石油需求将继续复苏。
EIA短期能源展望(STEO)对7月份布伦特原油价格的最新预测比6月份预测的每桶65.19美元高出3美元以上。
然而，需要指出的是，EIA是在7月1日完成了对7月份STEO的预测，也就是说，是在欧佩克+的争吵使市场陷入直接供应、生产协议的未来和联盟本身的不确定性之前。
根据EIA 截止7月1日的估计，今年美国基准WTI原油的平均现货价格将达到65.85美元/桶，高于6月预期的61.85美元/桶。
2022年的原油价格预测也被上调。明年布伦特原油现货均价预计将为66.64美元/桶，高于此前预测的60.49美元，而WTI明年的现货均价预计将为62.97美元/桶，较6月份预测的56.74美元/桶上涨逾6美元/桶。
EIA还指出，布伦特-西德克萨斯中质原油价差收窄，因为在6月的大部分时间里，西德克萨斯中质原油价格的涨幅超过了布伦特原油的涨幅，导致布伦特-西德克萨斯中质原油价差在7月1日收窄至0.61美元/桶。
EIA在报告中说：“由于全球经济从COVID-19的影响中继续复苏，原油价格的持续上涨反映了石油需求的持续增长。 油价上涨也反映了原油供应的持续限制，因为与增长速度更快的需求相比，原油产量仍然相对较低。”
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
EIA Sees Brent Prices Averaging $69 This Year
Brent Crude spot prices are set to average $68.78 per barrel this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest monthly outlook, significantly raising its oil price projections for both 2021 and 2022, expecting continued demand recovery.
The latest Brent price forecast in EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for July is more than $3 a barrel higher than the June forecast of $65.19.
It should be noted, however, that the Administration completed its forecasts for the July STEO on July 1, that is, just before the OPEC+ spat threw markets into uncertainty over immediate supply, the future of the production deal, and the alliance itself.
According to EIA’s estimates as of July 1, the average spot price of the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, will be $65.85/b this year, up from an average of $61.85/b expected last month.
For 2022, the price forecasts were also hiked. Brent spot prices are set to average $66.64/b, up from the previous $60.49 forecast, while the WTI spot price next year is expected to average $62.97/b, up by more than $6/b compared to the June forecast of $56.74/b.
The EIA also noted the narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread, as the increase in WTI prices outpaced the rise in Brent for most of June, resulting in a narrowing of the Brent–WTI spread to as low as $0.61/b on July 1.
“The persistently increasing crude oil prices reflect continuing increases in petroleum demand as the global economy continues to recover from the impacts of COVID-19. The rising prices also reflect ongoing constraints on crude oil supply as crude oil production remains relatively low compared with the more rapid pace of growing demand,” the EIA said.
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