据美国钻井网站2021年7月8日报道，除非违反规定的行为动摇了欧佩克+的凝聚力，否则，从8月份开始缺乏新政策可能会在未来几天和几周内继续将油价推高至每桶80美元。
这是挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）石油市场分析师路易丝·迪克森在日前发给美国钻井网站的一份声明中表示的观点。 迪克森在声明中概述称，8月份市场可能面临严重供应不足的风险。
迪克森在这份声明中称，“这不仅仅是欧佩克+限制供应的问题。美国页岩生产商似乎也不愿意投资并增加自己的产量来填补供应缺口，主要原因是，美国页岩生产商在低油价时被锁定在对冲头寸中，无法刺激产量增长。”
迪克森还指出，欧佩克+成员国仍有时间再次坐在一起，在8月之前达成“各方都能接受”的增产方案。
迪克森称，“市场预期欧佩克+最终将达成共识，因增加产量是谨慎的，特别是在今年下半年石油需求轨迹开始上升之际。”
这位分析师警告说，如果谈判破裂，欧佩克+产油国反对最初的协议，市场可能面临不受管制的产量，“这可能导致巨大的负面价格冲击”。 然而，迪克森指出，与欧佩克+联盟最终达成协议相比，这种情况的可能性要小得多。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Oil Could Jump Towards $80 in Days
Unless a compliance rebellion rocks OPEC+’s cohesion, the lack of a new policy from August could continue to hike prices towards $80 in the coming days and weeks.
That’s according to Rystad Energy’s oil markets analyst Louise Dickson, who expressed the view in a statement sent to Rigzone on Wednesday. In the statement, Dickson outlined that the market has been put in a position of risking a sizeable undersupply next month.
“It’s not only the OPEC+ keeping a tight lid on supply,” Dickson said in a statement. “U.S. shale producers also seem to be reluctant to invest and increase their own production sufficiently to plug the supply deficit, with the rationale largely related to producers being locked into hedging positions at lower oil prices that do not incentivize production growth,” the Rystad representative added.
Dickson went on to note that there is still time for OPEC+ members to sit together again and agree on a “mutually acceptable” way to increase production before August.
“The market expectation is that a consensus will eventually be reached by OPEC+, as increasing production is prudent especially as the oil demand trajectory takes off in the second half of this year,” Dickson said.
The analyst warned that if negotiations break down and OPEC+ producers rebel against the original deal, the market could face unregulated output, “which could cause a massive negative price shock”. Dickson outlined, however, this this scenario was less likely than that of the alliance reaching an eventual deal.
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