据油价网2021年7月9日报道，瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)大宗商品和外汇业务执行董事韦恩?戈登表示，全球原油需求明年第一季度前将回升至新冠肺炎疫情爆发前的水平。
戈登本周在接受彭博社记者采访时表示，石油的前景相当光明，他补充说，一旦欧佩克解决了内部分歧，我们可能很快就会看到更多的原油产量进入市场。 这位分析师指出，7月8日公布的最新的美国原油和燃料库存出现了下降，这表明需求正在加强。
由于新冠病毒的最新变种获得越来越多的关注，除非全球新冠病毒感染再次爆发，否则全球石油需求明年初可能会恢复到大流行前的水平。
瑞银的戈登并不是唯一一个看好原油市场未来行情的人。 各大银行也很乐观。 举例来说，高盛公司坚持其对布伦特原油第三季度价格为每桶80美元的预测，理由是需求的快速反弹。 摩根大通对此表示赞同，认为布伦特原油价格在本季度将突破80美元。
美国银行则更进一步：该行的分析师认为，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶100美元，但不是今年。 他们预计这个价格将在明年年中出现，这意味着美银分析师预计供应将继续吃紧。
与此同时，全球原油库存正在下降，而非欧佩克产油国的供应却没有在其他情况下增长得那么快。 美国的供应尤其如此。 在之前的周期中，美国生产商很快就开始提高产量，但现在他们转向了观望模式， 这为价格上升提供了额外的动力。
不过，没有什么是一成不变的，即使需求仍在上升，油价涨势也可能停止。
全球最大的场外石油经纪商PVM Oil Associates分析师Tamas Varga上周告诉CNBC，油价上涨“只有在各国央行出于对通胀的担忧而出人意料地提高利率，或者万一欧佩克将产量提高到超出需求的水平时， 或者如果这个波斯湾欧佩克成员国重返市场，才会突然结束。”
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
UBS: Oil Demand To Return To Pre-Covid Levels By Q1 2022
Crude oil demand will rebound to pre-pandemic levels by the first quarter of 2022, according to Wayne Gordon, executive director of commodities and forex at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Speaking to Bloomberg this week, Gordon said the outlook for oil was quite bright even though, he added, we could see more production soon once OPEC settled their internal differences. The analyst noted the latest drawdown in U.S. crude oil—and fuel—inventories reported yesterday, which signaled strengthening demand.
Barring another flare-up in Covid-19 infections as the latest variant of the coronavirus gains growing attention, oil demand could be back to its level from before the pandemic early next year.
UBS’s Gordon is far from alone in his bullish view of oil. Bankers are bullish, too. Goldman, for one, has stuck to its price forecast of $80 per barrel of Brent in the third quarter, citing the fast rebound in demand. JP Morgan agrees, seeing Brent topping $80 in the current quarter.
Bank of America goes further: its analysts believe Brent crude could reach $100 per barrel but not this year. They see this price for the middle of 2022, meaning BofA analysts expect supply to remain tight.
Meanwhile, global inventories are falling while non-OPEC supply is not rising as fast as it would have under other circumstances. This is particularly true of U.S. supply. In previous cycles, U.S. producers were quick to start ramping up production but now they have switch to a wait-and-see mode. This provides additional fuel for prices.
Nothing is set in stone, however, and the price rally could be halted even with demand still on the rise.
The rally “would only come to an abrupt end if central banks start increasing interest rates unexpectedly because of fear of inflation or in case OPEC raises production above demand ,” PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga told CNBC last week.
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