据管道&天然气杂志网7月9日伦敦报道，因消费加速，美国石油库存已降至疫情爆发前五年平均水平以下，但原油生产商对价格上涨反应迟缓，这表明需要更多供应。
上周，战略石油储备以外的原油和精炼油总库存减少了 1000 万桶，与一年前同期相比，现在减少了1.88亿桶。
尽管产品消费复苏，但在过去52周中，由于OPEC+和美国页岩公司限制原油产量，原油总库存下降了38周。
根据美国能源情报署(U.S. Energy Information Administration)(7月9日每周石油状况报告 )的数据显示，库存较2015-2019年疫情前五年的平均库存水平减少1200万桶，即降幅1%。
短缺主要集中在原油上，库存较平均水平较减少1,500万桶，即降幅3%，而汽油和馏分油仍有少量过剩(300万桶，即1%)和馏分油(200万桶，即1%)。
在俄克拉何马州库欣市的NYMEX WTI合约的交付点附近，原油短缺变得特别严重。该地区的原油库存比2016-2020年的五年平均水平低了21%。
这一缺口导致WTI合约出现了大幅的现货溢价，近月期货较第四个月交付价高出近2.90美元，这是自2012年以来的连续几周内的第7个百分点。
在成品油方面，上周供应给国内市场的汽油量达到创纪录的每日1,000万桶，高于前一周的每日920万桶。
但是，汽油供应量从初级石油系统(炼油厂、进口终端、管道和储油场)转移到次级系统(批发商和零售商)，而不是机动车驾驶者的实际消费量。
上周的燃油供应可能被7月4日公共假期所影响，供应商预先定位库存，让油轮休息，所以他们可能会在本周逆转。
汽油供应的一周增幅超过9%，是过去30年来最大的增幅之一，与阵亡将士纪念日(Memorial Day)之后的增幅类似，这强烈表明这是一个日历效应。
汽油供应一周的增幅超过 9 %，是过去 30 年来最大的增幅之一，与阵亡将士纪念日之后的增幅相似，这强烈表明这是一个日历效应。
尽管如此，在第一波和第二波疫情爆发后，随着企业重新开业、通勤恢复和休闲旅游回归，汽油供应量仍呈现温和上升趋势。
过去四周供应的汽油量比大流行前五年的平均水平低了不到4%，这表明经济和驾驶模式的恢复速度比去年更快。
郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网
原文如下:
Perspective: U.S. Petroleum Inventories are Becoming Tight
U.S. petroleum inventories have fallen below the pre-pandemic five-year average with consumption accelerating but crude producers slow to respond to rising prices, signaling more supply is needed.
Total stocks of crude and refined products outside the strategic petroleum reserve fell by 10 million barrels last week and are now down by 188 million barrels compared with the same point a year ago.
Total stocks have fallen in 38 out of the last 52 weeks as OPEC+ and U.S. shale firms limit crude production even as product consumption recovers.
Inventories are 12 million barrels or 1% below the pre-pandemic five-year average for 2015-2019, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“Weekly petroleum status report”, Jul. 9).
The deficit is concentrated in crude, where inventories are 15 million barrels or 3% below the average, while there are still small surpluses in gasoline (3 million barrels or 1%) and distillates (2 million barrels or 1%).
The crude shortage has become especially acute around the delivery point for the NYMEX WTI contract at Cushing, Oklahoma, where crude stocks are 21% below the five-year average for 2016-2020.
The shortfall has pushed the WTI contract into a steep backwardation, with front-month futures trading at a premium of almost $2.90 to the fourth delivery month, which is in the 7th percentile for all weeks since 2012.
On the refined products side, the volume of gasoline supplied to the domestic market hit a record 10.0 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, surging from 9.2 million bpd the previous week.
But gasoline supplied measures transfers from the primary petroleum system (refineries, import terminals, pipelines and tank farms) into the secondary system (wholesalers and retailers) rather than actual consumption by motorists.
Last week’s fuel deliveries were likely distorted by the impending July 4 public holiday, with suppliers pre-positioning stocks and to give tanker drivers a rest day, so they will probably reverse this week.
The one-week jump in gasoline supplied, more than 9%, was among the largest over the last three decades, and similar to the jump recorded after Memorial Day, which strongly implies it was a calendar effect.
Nonetheless, the volumes of gasoline supplied are trending gently upwards as businesses re-open, commuting resumes, and leisure travel returns in the wake of the pandemic’s first and second waves.
The volume of gasoline supplied over the last four weeks has been less than 4% below the pre-pandemic five-year average, suggesting the economy and driving patterns have healed more rapidly than seemed likely last year.
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