据阿拉伯贸易网2021年7月8日迪拜报道，一份报告称，尽管7月欧佩克+会议从未由于阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯未能克服分歧而达成协议，但欧佩克+成功经受住了时间的考验，目前僵局中的分歧是可以克服的。
日本银行控股和金融服务公司三菱UFJ金融集团(MUFG)在其最新的《石油市场周刊》上表示，阿联酋要求从2022年4月(当前协议到期时)起提高基线，而沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯则要求延长承诺至2022年12月。
MUFG在报告中表示：“尽管缺乏协议给欧佩克+的生产轨迹带来了不确定性，并最终导致全球供需平衡，但我们在7月5日列出的基本情况仍然是，在2021年剩余时间里，每月逐步增加40万桶/天的原油产量，有关延长2022年4月之后产量的谈判将推迟到晚些时候。”
7月5日，欧佩克+未能达成增加供应的协议，最初将布伦特原油现货价格推高至70美元/桶的高位——这是2018年以来的最高水平。 此后，由于美元走强、新型冠状病毒疫情的持续蔓延以及对2022年供应过剩的担忧，油价回落。
报告称：“鉴于缺乏欧佩克+协议将导致市场进一步出现赤字，我们在战术上看好未来一周，并寻找需求强劲、库存下降、溢价上升以及现货溢价更大的远期曲线的进一步证据。”
MUFG表示：“尽管欧佩克+僵局可能在短期内推高油价(我们不排除布伦特原油价格偶尔会徘徊在每桶80美元以上)，但我们认为油价目前徘徊在周期峰值附近，仍处于坚挺的‘过度’区间。”
MUFG 说：“我们的季度预测是，布伦特原油价格在今年第三季度末和第四季度末将分别回落至73美元/桶和64美元/桶。”
李峻 编译自 阿拉伯贸易网
原文如下：
Opec+ stalemate unlikely to last long: MUFG
While the July Opec+ meeting never concluded as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to overcome their differences, Opec+ has successfully stood the test of time and differences in the current standoff are surmountable, a report said.
The UAE asked for a higher baseline from April 2022 (when the current deal expires), whilst both Saudi Arabia and Russia asked for an extended commitment to December 2022, said the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), a Japanese bank holding and financial services company, in its latest Oil Market Weekly.
“Whilst this lack of agreement has introduced uncertainty into the Opec+ production trajectory, and ultimately global demand-supply balances, our base case that we catalogued on July 5 remains for a gradual 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) increase in production on a monthly basis for the remainder of 2021 with talks of an extension past April 2022 postponed to a later date,” MUFG said in the report.
The failure of Opec+ to reach an agreement on July 5 to increase supply initially pushed spot prices for Brent crude into the high $70s/b – levels not seen since 2018. Thereafter, oil prices have retraced its gains due to a strengthening US dollar, the continuing spread of Covid-19’s Delta variant as well as apprehensions of oversupply in 2022.
“We are tactically bullish for the week ahead given the lack of an Opec+ agreement tilts the market into further deficit, and look for further evidence of demand strength, falling inventories, rising premiums and the forward curve in steeper backwardation,” the report said.
“Notwithstanding the Opec+ stalemate potentially driving crude higher near-term (we do not rule out Brent sporadically flirting north of $80/b), we believe oil prices are currently hovering close to peak cyclical levels and remain in firm “overshoot” territory,” MUFG said.
“Our quarterly profile is for Brent to regress lower and end Q3 and Q4 2021 at $73/b and $64/b, respectively.”
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