据今日油价7月14日报道，截至目前，原油在2021年的表现一直很好，这与去年的情况截然不同。2020年，新冠肺炎疫情摧毁了所有大宗商品的需求，引发了持续性的价格暴跌。现在，大宗商品强势回归，而这种强势在石油领域表现得最为明显。过去几周，原油已成为最热门的大宗商品，因需求飙升超出所有预期，引发了对石油期货的挤兑。据《华尔街日报》报道，6月中旬，纽约市场上看涨与看跌油价的比例达到了惊人的23比1。要知道，今年年初的这一比例为6比1。
这是价格上涨的投机因素，当然也是一个影响很大的因素。本月初，欧佩克+未能就8月开始将如何继续进行生产限制这一问题达成一致意见，令所有人感到震惊。持不同意见的阿联酋已经对减产协议的某些方面提出了批评，这次也是固执己见，并表示，除非对方做出让步，否则拒绝做出任何让步。
据知情人士透露，最新消息是，石油生产最大的组织欧佩克成员国尚未在协议上取得进展。消息人士称，俄罗斯一直试图将阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯拉到谈判桌上，但显然很难成功，因此本周不太可能举行新的欧佩克+会议。
与此同时，出现了一些逆风局势，市场出现了一些新的担忧情绪，即新冠肺炎变异病毒株或将逆转全球经济复苏，要知道，正式全球经济的复苏推动了石油需求的飙升，很难预料局势将如何发展。路透社报道称，由于这种担忧，布伦特(Brent)原油和西德克萨斯中质原油价格(WTI)本周开始出现下跌，尽管跌幅不大，都不到一个百分点。
在股市方面，石油交易商一直在获利回吐，这也给油价带来了压力。路透社约翰•肯普称，上周对冲基金共售出3400万桶WTI原油和500万桶布伦特原油，以及1400万桶美国汽油。坎普指出，抛售来自于看涨仓位，收盘至5500万桶，而非看跌仓位的开盘，这表明市场情绪总体上仍然乐观。
然而，据《华尔街日报》报道，在所有这些石油投资中，可能隐藏着一颗计时器滴答作响的炸弹。这颗炸弹将成为许多交易员用来押注油价将在2022年底达到每桶100美元的选择。分析人士担心，油价走势逆转将导致期权抛售，鉴于目前石油期权市场的规模，这将波及整个金融市场。
平心而论，油价突然下跌的可能性要比通常情况下由于供应紧缩而导致的油价上涨的可能性要小。通常情况下，价格上涨会导致产量增加。然而，这一次，更高的产量不会出现。美国页岩油生产商非常谨慎，并不急于生产太多的石油。激进的股东瞄准了超级大股东，希望他们减少产出，而不是提高产出。随着投机者试图充分利用油价的上涨，疯狂的价格波动可能会继续。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Oil Has Become The Hottest Commodity On Wall Street
Crude oil has been having a great 2021 so far—a very different situation to last year’s when the pandemic devastated demand for all commodities fueling a price rout that lasted well into 2020. Now, commodities are back with a vengeance, and nowhere is this vengeance clearer than in oil. Crude has become the hottest commodity for traders in the past few weeks as surging demand has topped all expectations, sparking a run on oil futures. According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, in mid-June, the ratio of bullish to bearish bets on oil in New York stood at a staggering 23 to 1. This compares with a ratio of 6 to 1 at the beginning of the year.
This is the speculative component of the price rally, and it is certainly a big component. But the fundamental component is a big one, too. OPEC+ stunned everyone earlier this month when it failed to reach an agreement on how to proceed with its production control beyond the current month. The UAE, a dissenter who had already criticized some aspects of the production cut deal, this time really dug its heels in and refused to make any concessions until concessions were made to it.
The latest update from this front is that the members of the oil-producing cartel have yet to make progress on the deal, according to unnamed sources familiar with the situation, who spoke to Reuters this week. The sources said Russia had been trying to bring the UAE and Saudi Arabia together to the negotiations table but was apparently having trouble succeeding, so a new meeting of OPEC+ was unlikely this week.
Meanwhile, however, there have been headwinds at play, too, namely fresh worry that the delta variant of the coronavirus could reverse the global economic recovery that has driven the surge in oil demand that few expected. Because of this worry, Reuters reported Monday, oil started the week with a loss, although a minor one, at less than a percentage point for both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate.
On the stock market, oil traders have been taking profits. This has weighed on oil prices as well. Per Reuters’ John Kemp, last week hedge funds sold a total 34 million barrels of WTI and 5 million barrels of Brent as well as 14 million barrels of U.S. gasoline. The selloff, Kemp noted, came from the closing of bulling positions to the tune of 55 million barrels—and not the opening of bearish ones, suggesting sentiment remained upbeat on the whole.
According to the Wall Street Journal, however, there may be a ticking bomb hiding among all these oil bets. That ticking bomb would be the option that many traders have been using to bet on oil reaching $100 by the end of 2022. Analysts are concerned that a reversal of oil’s fortunes would lead to an options selloff, which, due to the size of the options market in oil right now, would send ripples across financial markets.
In all fairness, the chances of a sudden drop in oil prices are slimmer than they would normally be during a rally caused mostly by tightening supply. Normally, higher prices lead to greater production. This time, however, higher production is not coming. U.S. shale producers are being extra-careful and are not in a hurry to bring back too many barrels. Supermajors are being targeted by activist shareholders to reduce their output rather than boost it.
Wild price swings are likely to continue as speculators try to make the best of the oil rally.
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