据油价网7月13日消息，根据俄罗斯联邦统计局(Rosstat)首次发布的此类评估，石油和天然气行业在俄罗斯经济中的份额从2019年的19.2%下降至2020年的15%。
根据统计数据，2018年的这一比例甚至高于2019年，为21.1%。分析人士表示，这与他们在本周俄罗斯联邦统计局公布官方数据之前的估计大致相符。
据加拿大皇家银行(RBC)根据俄罗斯去年国内生产总值(GDP)数据估算，2020年，石油和天然气在俄罗斯GDP中创造了2190亿美元(16.3万亿俄罗斯卢布)。
俄罗斯斯科尔科沃能源中心专家Ekaterina Grushevenko对加拿大皇家银行表示，俄罗斯油气行业在总体GDP中所占的份额与其他主要石油生产国平均15%至20%的估计基本一致。
例如,据专家称，石油和天然气的份额占美国GDP的8%,占沙特GDP的50%,占挪威的GDP的14%,占哈萨克斯坦GDP的13.3%,占阿联酋的30%和加拿大的不到10%。
俄罗斯外贸银行(VTB Capital)首席经济学家Alex Isakov对加拿大皇家银行表示:“俄罗斯联邦统计局公布的石油和天然气在俄罗斯国GDP中所占份额的数据与我们的估计完全一致。”
俄罗斯新经济学院金融学教授Oleg Shibanov告诉RBC,俄罗斯此前所认为的是，石油和天然气占俄罗斯GDP的一半左右，但这更有可能是因为化石燃料出口约占俄罗斯所有出口的 50-60%。
裘寅 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Oil & Gas Share Of Russia’s GDP Dropped To 15% In 2020
The share of the oil and gas industry in Russia’s economy declined to 15 percent in 2020, down from 19.2 percent in 2019, according to a first such assessment published by the Russian statistics agency Rosstat.
Back in 2018, this share was even higher than in 2019, at 21.1 percent, according to the statistics, which analysts say is generally in line with what they were estimating before the publication of the official Rosstat data this week.
In 2020, oil and gas generated US$219 billion (16.3 trillion Russian rubles) of Russia’s gross domestic product, according to estimates by Russian outlet RBC based on Russian GDP data for last year.
The Russian oil and gas industry’s share of the overall GDP is generally in line with the average 15-20 percent estimate for other major oil producers, Ekaterina Grushevenko, expert at the Skolkovo energy center in Russia, told RBC.
For example, the share of oil and gas makes 8 percent of U.S. GDP, a massive 50 percent of Saudi GDP, 14 percent of Norway’s GDP, 13.3 percent of Kazakhstan’s GDP, 30 percent of the GDP of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and less than 10 percent in Canada, according to the expert.
“The data published by the Russian statistics office about the share of oil and gas in Russian GDP is fully in line with our estimates,” Alex Isakov, Chief Economist at VTB Capital, told the RBC outlet.
The perception in Russia is that oil and gas makes up around half of Russia’s GDP, but this is more likely due to the fact that fossil fuel exports account for around 50-60 percent of all Russian exports, Oleg Shibanov, finance professor at the New Economic School in Russia, told RBC.
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