自今年早些时候油价超过每桶70美元以来，分析师、经济学家和各国央行一直在担心，原油价格上涨是否会破坏全球经济从疫情中复苏的势头。
多数专家认为，发展中经济体的通胀压力无疑在上升，它们对油价上涨比发达市场更为敏感。在新兴经济体中，燃料和食品价格通常占更多的消费支出，因此当油价上涨时，它们对新兴市场的伤害要大于对成熟市场的伤害。美国和其他发达国家也开始出现通胀担忧。
然而，大多数分析师认为，油价(目前在每桶75美元左右)不会高到严重放缓经济增长的程度，尤其是在美国和欧洲。在这些地区，服务占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重很大，而且还在不断上升，而石油成本占GDP的比重仍低于长期平均水平。
经济学家和分析师上周对《华尔街日报》(the Wall Street Journal)表示，油价尚未达到可能破坏发达市场经济反弹的水平。
《华尔街日报》援引摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的估计称，由于油价上涨，今年全球石油成本占GDP的比重将上升，但仍将低于长期平均水平。
到2021年，如果油价平均为每桶75美元，石油负担将增加到全球GDP的2.8%。但即使是比前几年更高的负担也低于3.2%的长期平均水平，投资银行说。
《华尔街日报》援引摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)今年早些时候的一份报告称，要使所谓的石油负担达到长期平均水平，油价平均需要再上涨10美元，即每桶85美元。
目前对发达经济体的经济预测显示，今年的油价上涨不会对大流行后的增长复苏造成重大冲击。
就在上周，欧盟委员会(EC)提高了对欧盟和欧元区的短期经济增长预测，预计2021年经济增长4.8%，2022年增长4.5%。欧盟和欧元区对2021年夏季中期经济预测的最新预测分别比仅一个季度前的春季预测高出0.6和0.5个百分点。
不过，欧盟委员会预计，不断上涨的能源和大宗商品价格，以及生产瓶颈和一些原材料短缺，将给今年的通胀带来上行压力。
不过，分析师称，发达经济体(主要是美国和欧洲)被压抑的消费需求料将维持经济反弹，并至少目前抵消不断上升的石油负担。
彭博经济的Maeva Cousin和Ziad Daoud指出，在欧洲和美国，油价上涨对经济增长的压力"相对于它们从冠状病毒危机中复苏后的强劲增长预期而言很小"。
据《华尔街日报》报道，这不仅是因为目前的预测认为发达经济体将强劲反弹，还因为在服务业占GDP比重不断上升的成熟经济体，生产1美元GDP所需的石油减少了。
与几十年前相比，预计原油价格上涨对发达经济体整体经济增长和前景的影响较小。但油价上涨无疑对发展中经济体构成挑战，尤其是对印度等严重依赖石油进口的国家。那里的通胀压力更大，分析师认为油价超过80美元就是石油需求破坏的开始。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席石油分析师Martijn Rats本月早些时候对CNBC表示：“在此基础上，我们预计将出现相当大程度的需求破坏。”
拉斯指出：“这将对经济增长产生影响，因为如果石油需求不再以同样快的速度增长，那么许多其他工业经济过程将依赖于此。”
寿琳玲 编译自 今日油价
High Oil Prices Threaten The Global Economic Recovery
Since oil prices exceeded $70 per barrel earlier this year, analysts, economists, and central banks have been fretting about whether higher crude prices could disrupt the momentum in global economic recovery from the pandemic.
Most experts argue that inflationary pressure is no doubt rising in developing economies, which are more sensitive than developed markets to rising oil prices.
Fuel and food prices generally account for more consumer spending in emerging economies, so they hurt them more than mature markets when oil prices rise.
Inflation concerns have also started to emerge in the United States and other developed countries.
Yet, most analysts believe that oil prices—currently at around $75 a barrel —are not as high as to seriously slow down economic growth, especially in the U.S. and Europe. In those areas, services account for a large and growing share of gross domestic product, and the cost of oil as a share of GDP is still below the long-term average.
Oil prices have not reached the point yet where they could derail the economic rebound in developed markets, economists and analysts told The Wall Street Journal last week.
Globally, the cost of oil as a share of GDP, also known as the oil burden, will rise this year because of the higher oil prices, but it will still stay below long-term averages, according to estimates from Morgan Stanley cited by the Journal.
In 2021, the oil burden is set to increase to 2.8 percent of the world’s GDP if prices average $75 a barrel. But even this higher burden than in previous years would be lower than the long-term average of 3.2 percent, the investment bank says.
Oil would have to average $10 a barrel higher—$85—in order for the so-called oil burden to reach the long-term average, the Journal quoted a Morgan Stanley report from earlier this year.
Current economic projections for developed economies show that this year’s oil price rally will not be a significant bump to the post-pandemic growth recovery.
Just last week, the European Commission (EC) raised its short-term economic growth projection for the European Union and the Eurozone, expecting the economy to expand by 4.8 percent in 2021 and by 4.5 percent in 2022. The latest forecasts in the Summer 2021 interim Economic Forecast are 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points higher for the EU and the Eurozone, respectively, than in the spring forecast made just a quarter ago.
Still, the Commission expects rising energy and commodity prices to put upward pressure on inflation this year, alongside production bottlenecks and shortage of some raw materials.
However, pent-up consumer demand in developed economies, mostly in the United States and Europe, is set to sustain the economic rebound and offset, at least for now, the rising oil burden, analysts say.
In Europe and the United States, the pressure of higher oil prices on economic growth “is small in the context of the very strong growth expected as they emerge from the Covid crisis,” Bloomberg Economics’ Maeva Cousin and Ziad Daoud note.
That’s not only because current projections see a strong rebound in developed economies, but also because less oil is now needed to produce a dollar of GDP in mature economies where the share of the services sector is growing, according to the Journal.
Rising crude prices are expected to have a small effect on the overall economic growth and outlook on developed economies than they did a few decades ago. But higher prices are certainly challenging to developing economies, especially those heavily dependent on oil imports such as India. Inflationary pressures are stronger there, and analysts see $80 oil as the red line beyond which oil demand destruction begins.
“Above that, we would expect quite a bit of demand destruction to kick in,” Martijn Rats, chief oil analyst at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC earlier this month.
“That then would have implications for economic growth because if oil demand doesn’t grow quite as fast anymore then an awful lot of other industrial economic processes depend on that,” Rats noted.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以敬意。如果您认为本站文章侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
