据7月12日今日油价报道，新冠肺炎疫情肯定不是石油和天然气行业的第一次历史性崩盘或经济危机，也很可能不会是最后一次。想必，会浮现在人们脑海中的四场历史性石油危机分别是，70年代天然气管道建设发展后80年代石油过剩，海湾战争引起的动荡，2008年的金融危机，以及随后21世纪10年代出现的石油过剩。石油市场唯一不变的是其波动性，这是一个兴衰交替的行业。然而，不知为何，当前的情况有所不同。上个世纪以来，石油市场和整个能源行业都受到了各种危机和灾难的冲击。在50年代的苏伊士运河危机中，埃及将这条关键水道收归国有，要知道，在冲突期间，欧洲三分之二的石油都来自这条水道。因为美国参与了阿以战争，1973年欧佩克成员国对美国实施禁运，对天然气管道和天然气配给带来巨大影响。
这家超大型石油公司周四发布了其年度《世界能源统计回顾》(Statistical Review of World Energy)，该文件汇编了过去一年的数据，使该公司将2020年描述为“独一无二的一年”，对整个能源行业留下了不可磨灭的印记。这一疫情至少造成400万人死亡，而且这一数字还在继续上升，已报告的病例以及更多未报告的病例总数远远超过1.85亿。经济损失也非常巨大，据CNBC报道，2020年全球国内生产总值GDP)将收缩约3.3%，这是大萧条以来和平时期最严重的衰退。
尽管疫情给几乎所有行业和经济部门都留下了持久的印记，但很少有行业像能源行业一样受到了如此重创，并经历了翻天覆地的变化。2020年伊始，全球石油需求大幅下降，世界各地的工业部门放缓或被迫关闭，汽车停在车道上，人们躲到室内避难。石油市场的波动很快引发了欧佩克+成员国沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间，就如何应对这一挑战的争执，这场争执演变成了一场全面的石油价格战和严重的供应过剩，这使得全球石油储备处于满负荷状态，并使“拥有石油”成为了一种负担。以至于在2020年4月20日，更不可思议的事情发生了，油价下跌，西德克萨斯中质原油基准价格暴跌至负值，触底接近每桶负40美元，这是历史上的首次，给全球石油市场留下的影响，至今仍有波澜。
但全球石油需求和工业活动的巨大变化也具有巨大的正外部性。英国石油公司在报告中指出，2020年的危机导致一次能源和碳排放量下降到二战以来从未见过的水平。据估计，世界能源需求大幅下降了4.5%，全球因能源使用而产生的碳排放减少了6.3%，以任何历史标准衡量，这都是巨大的变化。
创造一个新的、更绿色的世界似乎是可能的，随着这一年绿色能源取得了成功，世界各地的领导人开始认真考虑实现碳排放的目标，并将可再生能源和能源效率纳入经济复苏计划，清洁能源的转型发展进程也被催化。2020年太阳能的增长是有史以来最大的一年，而作为一个整体，可再生能源部门从疫情的经济动荡中“相对而言没有受到损害”。
然而,随着世界相当仓促地恢复常态，人们对“疫情将提供足够的机会来打破工业现状，从而大大改变全球温室气体排放和全球变暖的轨迹”的一些希望正在消失。但是，尽管绿色革命的希望正在消退，但它比以往任何时候都更加紧迫。因为，人们希望不会再经历一次“末日的洗礼”。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
How COVID-19 Triggered The Mother Of All Oil Crises
The COVID-19 pandemic certainly wasn’t the first historic crash or economic crisis for the oil and gas industry, and it (probably) won’t be the last. Four huge historic oil crises come to mind immediately: the 1980s oil glut which followed the gas lines of the ‘70s, the turmoil of the Gulf War, the 2008 financial crisis, and the ensuing oil glut of the 2010s. The only thing that’s consistent about oil markets is their very volatility. It’s a boom-and-bust business by nature. And yet, somehow, this time it’s different. Oil markets and the energy industry as a whole have been hit by all kinds of crises and disasters in the last century. There was the Suez Canal crisis of the ‘50s, in which Egypt nationalized the pivotal waterway which controlled two-thirds of the oil used by Europe at the time of the conflict. The oil embargo of 1973, in which Arab members of OPEC imposed an embargo on the United States for their involvement in the Arab-Israeli War, leading to those aforementioned gas lines and gas rationing.
The supermajor oil company released its annual Statistical Review of World Energy on Thursday, and the document compiled data from the past year which led the company to describe 2020 as “a year like no other” with left indelible marks on the energy industry as a whole. The pandemic has led to the loss of 4 million lives at the very least, and those numbers continue to rise, with the number of reported cases (and scores more of unreported ones) totalling to well over 185 million. The economic toll has also been enormous, with global gross domestic product contracting around 3.3 percent in 2020 -- “the largest peacetime recession since the Great Depression,” according to reporting from CNBC.
While the pandemic has left a lasting mark on nearly every industry and economic sector out there, few have been as hard-hit and re-shaped as the energy industry. 2020 started off with a huge drop in global oil demand as industrial sectors around the world slowed down or closed down, and cars sat idle in driveways as people retreated inside to shelter in place. This oil market volatility soon led to a spat between the OPEC+ members of Saudi Arabia and Russia as to how to respond to the challenge, which devolved into an all-out oil-price war and severe supply glut which put global oil storage at capacity and made owning oil a liability -- so much so that on April 20, 2020, the unthinkable happened and oil prices went negative. The West Texas Intermediate crude benchmark plummeted well below zero, bottoming out at nearly negative $40 per barrel, a historic first which would leave waves in the global oil market that are still reverberating today.
But the massive change in global oil demand and industrial activity also had huge positive externalities. In their report, BP notes that the 2020 global health crisis resulted in falling rates of primary energy and carbon emissions at levels that we haven’t seen since World War II. World energy demand is estimated to have dropped by a whopping 4.5 percent and worldwide carbon emissions resulting from energy use contracted by 6.3 percent -- massive changes by any historical measure.
A new, greener world seemed possible and the clean energy transition was catalyzed as green energy had a gangbusters year and world leaders in all corners of the globe got serious about meeting emissions goals and working renewables and energy efficiency into their economic recovery packages. Solar power had its biggest growth year ever, and as a whole the renewable energy sector emerged from the pandemic’s economic turmoil “relatively unscathed.”
Some of that hope, however, that the pandemic would provide enough perspective and enough of a break in the momentum of industry and status quo to seriously change the trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, is falling away as the world rather hastily returns to business as usual. While the hope of the green revolution is fading, however, it’s more urgent than ever before. Hopefully it won’t take another taste of the end of days to.
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