据Trade Arabia 7月11日报道：国际能源署 (IEA) 最新的一份报告显示，天然气需求将在2021年强劲反弹，预计全球需求将增长 3.6%，随后在未来三年内将放缓至1.7% 的平均增长率。
IEA最新发布的季度天然气市场报告补充称，如果各国政府不实施强有力的政策，推动世界在本世纪中叶实现净零排放，天然气需求将进一步上升，该报告还提供了新的中期预测。预计到2024年，需求量将在2019年疫情前的水平上增长7%。
2021年的天然气需求增长主要反映了经济从Covid-19危机中的复苏，但在接下来的几年中，经济活动和天然气将在发电、工业和运输等领域取代煤炭和石油等其他污染更严重的燃料，将以同等比例推动这一进程。2020年至2024 年间，天然气需求增长的近一半来自亚太地区。
尽管未来几年增长放缓，但到2024年的天然气需求趋势仍高于IEA气候驱动情景下的轨迹，尤其是最近提出的路径
报告称，为了到2050年能实现净零排放，需要采取新的措施来促进进一步的燃料替代和效率提升，特别是在更成熟的市场，尤其如此，在这些市场中从煤炭或石油转向天然气的潜力已经很大了。
IEA能源市场和安全主管Keisuke Sadamori 表示：“天然气需求的反弹表明，全球经济正在从这场大流行的冲击中复苏，天然气正在继续取代排放量更高的燃料。”
“但需要实施更强有力的政策，以使全球天然气需求走上一条与2050 年实现净零排放一致的道路，同时仍能促进经济繁荣。这些措施包括确保更有效地使用天然气。与此同时，天然气行业需要加大力度转向更清洁、低碳的气体，并迅速有效地解决不必要的甲烷排放问题。”
新报告研究了天然气行业如何减少其排放足迹，并与净零排放目标保持一致。采取行动的关键领域包括在整个价值链中继续降低行业温室气体排放的强度，支持低碳气体的发展，以及开发碳管理解决方案以最大限度地减少燃烧产生的排放。尤其是，从时间和成本两方面来看，减少甲烷排放量是缩小该行业足迹的有效方式。
报告中增加的需求预测可以通过在疫情大流行之前已经批准或正在开发的常规资产来满足，主要是在俄罗斯和中东。美国页岩气生产的新投资也可能补充供应，以支持目前正在开发的液化天然气 (LNG) 的出口能力。
该报告指出了液化天然气对确保灵活和安全供应的贡献，特别是来自美国，美国占未来三年将投产的新增液化天然气产能的绝大部分。
液化天然气运输船队的强劲增长也将使供应更具可调整性，目前的订单表明未来两到三年船舶数量将增加25%。地下存储容量是另一个关键的灵活性来源，预计在预测期内将增加7%。
然而，如果没有强有力的政策措施来长期抑制天然气需求，在报告预测期即将结束时，市场可能会出现波动和对供应安全的担忧。
祝精燕 摘译自 Trade Arabia
原文如下：
Gas demand to rebound with 3.6% growth in 2021: IEA
Natural gas demand is set to rebound strongly in 2021 with global demand expected to rise by 3.6% before easing to an average growth rate of 1.7% over the following three years, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The demand will keep rising further if governments do not implement strong policies to move the world onto a path towards net-zero emissions by mid-century, added the IEA’s latest quarterly Gas Market Report, which also provides a new medium-term forecast. By 2024, demand is forecast to be up 7% from 2019’s pre-Covid levels.
Natural gas demand growth in 2021 mostly reflects economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis, but it’s set to be driven in the following years in equal proportions by economic activity and by gas replacing other more polluting fuels such as coal and oil in sectors such as electricity generation, industry and transport. Almost half of the increase in gas demand between 2020 and 2024 comes from the Asia Pacific region.
Despite slower growth in the coming years, gas demand by 2024 is trending higher than the trajectories in the IEA’s climate-driven scenarios, notably the pathway set out in the recent
To get on track for net-zero emissions by 2050, new measures are needed to promote further fuel substitution and efficiency gains, the report said, noting that this is especially the case in more mature markets, where much of the potential for switching from coal or oil to gas has already been realized.
“The rebound in gas demand shows that the global economy is recovering from the shock of the pandemic and that gas is continuing to replace more emissions-intensive fuels,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security.
“But stronger policies need to be implemented to put global gas demand on a path in line with reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 while still fostering economic prosperity. These include measures to ensure gas is used more efficiently. At the same time, the gas industry needs to significantly step up efforts to shift to cleaner and low-carbon gases – and to act quickly and effectively to address needless methane emissions.”
The new report examines how the gas industry can reduce its emissions footprint and align with net-zero emissions objectives. Key areas for action include continuing to reduce the intensity of the industry’s greenhouse gas emissions all along the value chain, supporting the development of low-carbon gases, and developing carbon management solutions to minimise emissions from combustion. In particular, reducing methane emissions is an efficient way – in terms of both time and cost – of narrowing the industry’s footprint.
The increased demand forecast in the report can be met by conventional assets that were already approved or under development before the pandemic, mainly in Russia and the Middle East. Supply is also likely to be supplemented by new investment in US shale gas production to support export capacity for liquefied natural gas (LNG) that is currently under development.
The report notes the contribution of LNG to ensuring flexible and secure supplies, especially from the US, which accounts for the large majority of additional LNG capacity to be commissioned in the coming three years.
Robust growth of the LNG carrier fleet will also make supplies more adjustable, with current order books representing a 25% increase in the vessel count in the next two to three years. Underground storage capacity, another pivotal source of flexibility, is set to increase by 7% over the forecast period.
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