据油价网2021年7月8日报道，氢已经成为一个轰动能源行业的流行词。 尽管一些依赖化石燃料的国家感到威胁，但其他国家看到了机遇。 虽然怀疑论者一开始将其斥为“炒作”，但政策制定者和那些相信技术未来的私营部门人士已经稳步增加了赌注。 越来越明显的是，氢的使用(无论是绿氢、蓝氢还是其他颜色氢)不是“是否”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。 许多媒体一直在报道氢的潜力及其在能源转型中的价值。 例如，《油价网》曾多次向其读者介绍德国、日本和挪威等几个国家改变模式的计划。 比赛开始了，赌注很大。 然而，人们可能提出一个合理的问题：在这项技术尚未证明其价值的情况下，如此大规模的投资氢是否有意义?
首先，氢在某些行业的重要性毋庸置疑，如化工、钢铁和炼油，以及运输(如重型、船舶和飞机)。 此外，专家们指出，氢可以在能源部门发挥补充作用，能源部门将越来越依赖太阳能和风能等间歇性能源。 调峰增加电力的经济价值，否则电力将被减少，减少的电力能够用来生产氢气。
此外，能源载体的储存特性使其成为洲际贸易的潜在商品。 尽管有这些优点，但它的使用也有局限性。
最重要的是生产和转换过程中的能量损失。 当使用燃料电池时，大约20- 25%在电解过程中损耗，另外50%在转换过程中损耗，从而使整个过程效率降到35%。 随着能源转型的推进，我们可能会看到更有效的转换过程和成本降低。 然而，与此同时，替代能源存储技术和电池也会变得更便宜。
然而，能源公司、投资者和政策制定者正在制定计划，以大规模启动氢经济。 项目的清单每天都在增加。 消息灵通的在线媒体Recharge在2020年12月发布了一份世界上最大的氢项目名单。 到2030年，13个项目的装机容量将达到50吉瓦。 在6个月的时间里，该名单已经增加到207吉瓦。
考虑到目前绿氢(从可持续来源生产)的生产能力只是2030年计划的一小部分，这是一个显著的发展。 然而，在行业内，由于四个原因，预计成本将会下降。
首先，大规模生产和规模经济将显著降低生产成本。 第二，投资可持续技术已经变得有利可图，这意味着金融机构调整了它们的投资范围。 第三，主要是工业化国家的政府强烈支持脱碳，这就加强了氢的使用。 最后，风能和太阳能的大规模发展将为电解槽提供廉价的电力。
“氢热”在欧洲特别强烈，欧洲和东亚都是严重依赖进口化石燃料的地区。 1973年，由于石油危机，外国能源来源和高度依赖造成了重大冲击。 它为西方国家开辟了开发北海资源的道路，虽然北海资源成本较高，但在政治上是安全的。 当地生产的氢气也能提供同样的好处。
进口依赖仍然是欧洲大陆的一个问题，因为欧洲大陆的天然气储量正在减少，对俄罗斯进口的依赖仍然存在。 因此，氢是一个机会，可以减少政治依赖，同时加强当地经济。
然而，这些既定目标能否实现仍然不确定。 创造一个全新的全球氢市场伴随着一系列独特的挑战。 首先，主要是欧洲、北美和东亚的多个政府制定了高目标，只有通过长期承诺和财政支持才能实现这些目标。 第二，需要解决“先有鸡还是先有蛋”的困境：扩大生产和需求，创造一个市场。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
The Mega-Challenge Of Creating A Global Hydrogen Market
Hydrogen has become a buzzword that has stirred the energy industry. Although some fossil fuel-dependent countries feel threatened, others see opportunities. And while skeptics first dismissed it as a 'hype', policymakers and those in the private sector that believe in the technology’s future, have steadily increased the stakes. It is becoming clear that the application of hydrogen (whether green, blue, or another color) isn't a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’. Many media outlets have been reporting on the potential of hydrogen and its value for the energy transition. Oilprice.com, for example, has on multiple occasions informed its readers on the paradigm-changing plans of several countries such as Germany, Japan, and Norway, to name some. The race is on and the stakes are high. However, one can ask the legitimate question of whether the massive investments make sense when the technology hasn’t proven its value yet.
For starters, the importance of hydrogen in certain sectors is unquestionable in hard to abate industries (e.g. chemicals, steel, and refineries) and transportation (e.g. heavy-duty, ships, and planes). Also, experts point out the complementary role hydrogen can play in the energy sector which will increasingly rely on intermittent sources such as solar and wind power. Peak shaving adds financial value to electricity that would otherwise be curtailed which instead can be used to produce hydrogen.
Furthermore, the energy carrier’s storage characteristics make it a potential commodity for intercontinental trade. Despite these advantages, there are limitations to its use.
The most important being energy losses in the production and conversion processes. Approximately 20-25 percent is lost during electrolysis and another 50 percent in the conversion process when using a fuel cell resulting in an overall process efficiency of 35 percent. As the energy transition advances, we may see more effective conversion processes and cost reductions. In the meantime, however, alternative energy storage technology and batteries could also become cheaper.
Nevertheless, energy companies, investors, and policymakers are making plans to kickstart the hydrogen economy in a big way. The list of projects is increasing by the day. The well-informed online media outlet Recharge published a list of the world's largest hydrogen projects in December 2020. At the time 13 projects were adding up to 50 GW until 2030. In six months the list has increased to 207 GW.
It is a remarkable development considering that the current production capacity of green hydrogen (produced from sustainable sources) is just a fraction of what is planned around 2030. However, within the industry, the expectation is that cost will decrease due to four reasons.
First, mass production and economies of scale will reduce production costs significantly. Second, investing in sustainable technologies has become profitable meaning financial institutions have adjusted their scope. Third, governments in primarily the industrialized world are strongly in favor of decarbonization which strengthens the case for hydrogen. Lastly, the massive growth of wind and solar will provide cheap electricity that can be used in electrolyzers.
The ‘hydrogen fever’ is especially strong in Europe which, together with East Asia, is a region heavily dependent on the import of fossil fuels. The foreign sourcing of energy and high dependency caused a major shock in 1973 due to the oil crisis. It set the course for Western countries to develop the more expensive but politically secure resources of the North Sea. Locally produced hydrogen could offer the same benefit.
import dependency is still an issue on the continent as domestic natural gas reserves are dwindling and the dependence on Russian imports remains. Hydrogen, therefore, is an opportunity to decrease political dependence while strengthening the local economy.
Nevertheless, it remains uncertain whether the stated goals will be reached. Creating a brand-new market comes with a unique set of challenges. First, multiple governments in primarily Europe but also North America and East Asia have set high targets that can only be reached through long-term commitments and financial support. Second, the chicken-or-the-egg dilemma needs to be resolved: scale up production and demand to create a market.
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