据今日油价7月21日报道，因市场担心欧佩克产油国会增加供应，加上对新冠肺炎变异毒株的担忧情绪增加，以及燃料库存数据不佳，油价在过去两周一直下滑。周二早间，西德克萨斯中质原油的交易价格为每桶65.99美元，布伦特原油的交易价格为每桶68.24美元，这是两个月前的水平。
这标志着油价在几周前触及多年高点后，出现了急剧的趋势逆转，这自然会引发这样一个问题:油价涨势是否走得太远、太快了?
看涨石油的人会很高兴听到油价与黄金相比仍有上行空间。要知道，石油和黄金是世界上最受关注的两种大宗商品，两者的走势经常跟随也就不足为奇了。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的Martijn Rats和Amy Sergeant在最近的一份研究报告中表示，尽管从历史上看，石油与黄金的价格比例并不能很好地反映未来油价的走势，但对于寻求石油价格走势指引的投资者来说，这一比例仍有可能引起他们的兴趣。
那么，当前这个趋势如何呢?
看看一盎司黄金在任一时间点可以购买多少桶石油，也就是每盎司黄金可以购买多少桶石油。
分析得出，自1946年以来，黄金与石油的平均比例一直是1盎司黄金可以购买16.53桶石油。任何时候，一盎司黄金可以购买超过16.53桶石油，这意味着要么石油便宜，要么黄金昂贵。相反，只要一盎司黄金的购买量低于16.53桶，石油就被认为是昂贵的，黄金就被认为是廉价的。了解这一点可以帮助投资者决定，是应该买进更多石油，卖出黄金，还是采取相反的做法。
以最近的时间框架来看，1998年，石油价格便宜，而黄金相对昂贵。1999 -2000年，油价上涨了66%，而黄金基本持平。21世纪初，金价再次相对石油来说变得非常便宜，从2001年的271美元涨至2012年的1669美元，当时油价再次走低。值得一提的是，这只是年平均价格，意味着投资者不需要准确把握时机就可以出手。
2019年，石油平均价格为每桶50.01美元，黄金平均价格为1514.75美元，这意味着一盎司黄金可以购买30桶多一点的石油。2020年，这一比例飙升至54.87桶/盎司的天文数字，是长期平均水平的三倍以上。今年，这一比例降至27.60桶/盎司黄金，较长期平均水平高出67%。
上一次该比率处于“正常范围”是在2014年油价暴跌期间。原油价格在2014年6月20日达到107.95美元/桶的峰值后，在2015年1月28日短短7个月的时间里暴跌至44.08美元/桶。
因此，可以说，尽管2014年的油价暴跌很糟糕，但它只是代表了对均值的回归，而2020年的抛售则有些过于严重了。
黄金前景仍不明朗，不断上升的通胀数据支撑了金价的涨势，但越来越强硬的美联储表示要阻止这场“盛宴”。假设黄金价格稳定在每盎司1821美元，油价需要攀升到110美元/桶，黄金-石油比率才会回到历史中值。突然之间，美国银行(Bank of America)最近关于油价可能在2022年达到每桶100美元的预测似乎不再那么牵强了。
油价与通货膨胀的关系
此外，石油市场仍需爬上另一道令人担忧的大墙，投资者面临另一个潜在的敌人：通胀加剧。
美国最近试图安抚人们的担忧，即不断上升的通胀可能会损害美国的经济复苏，并破坏他的4万亿美元支出计划。在此之前，随着经济在因新冠肺炎而实行的相关封锁之后继续复苏，美国6月份的通货膨胀加速，达到2008年以来的最快增速。
根据美国劳工部的数据，6月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨5.4%，而不包括食品和能源的核心价格指数同比上涨4.5%。不断上升的通胀，是由于对商品和服务的需求超出了企业的能力，无法跟上制约半导体和太阳能等多种行业的供应瓶颈，巨额刺激资金以及美国个人储蓄率的飙升。
共和党人已经抓住令人担忧的通胀趋势，反对拜登雄心勃勃的支出计划，称美国无力承担可能提振经济的额外政府支出提案。
政府可能会对高企的石油和汽油价格感到不安，这不仅是因为石油在历史上在决定通胀趋势中所扮演的角色，还因为它们对拜登未来的政治抱负构成了风险。
油价和通货膨胀是有因果关系的。随着油价的攀升，通货膨胀也会随之上升。另一方面，通胀往往会随着油价下跌而下降。之所以会出现这种情况，是因为石油是经济中的一项主要投入，如果投入成本上升，最终产品的成本也会上升。
值得庆幸的是，自上世纪80年代以来，油价与通胀之间的联系已明显减弱。
例如，在上世纪90年代和海湾战争石油危机期间，尽管原油价格在6个月内翻了一番，从每桶14美元涨到了30美元左右，但通胀保持稳定。这两个指标之间的脱钩在1999年至2005年油价上涨期间变得更加明显，油价年平均名义价格从每桶16.50美元上涨至每桶50美元，而CPI从1999年1月的164.30美元上涨至2005年12月的196.80美元。
不过，政府可能会开始担心高油价，因为众所周知，汽油价格会对消费者心理产生巨大影响。目前美国汽油价格为每加仑3.16美元。虽然这只比过去10年的平均价格高20美分，但比去年的价格高了整整1美元。
原油和汽油之间的价格相关性多年来已经发生了很大的变化，而且对消费者不利。大多数州都提高了汽油税，炼油厂面临着增加成本的新规定，而且向加油站运送汽油的卡车司机短缺。
这会造成什么结果呢？
GasBuddy的石油分析师帕特里克•德•汉(Patrick De Haan)表示:“今天油价达到每桶100美元可能会让我们接近每加仑4美元的关口。”
对于司机来说，4美元的门槛无疑是一个痛点，4.17美元是2008年夏天油价达到145美元/桶之后的最高油价。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Gold Prices Show That Oil Is Still Cheap
Oil prices have tanked over the past two weeks, suffering from fears of additional OPEC supply hitting the market, the shattering of demand optimism over Delta variant fears, and unfavorable fuel inventory data. WTI was trading at $65.99/bbl early Tuesday, with Brent at $68.24, levels they crossed two months ago.
That marks a sharp trend reversal after taking out multi-year highs just weeks ago, which naturally begs the question of whether the oil price run-up had run too far, too fast.
The oil bulls will be happy to hear that oil prices still have upside when measured against gold.
Oil and gold are two of the world's most-watched commodities, and it's hardly surprising that where one goes the other frequently follows.
In a recent research note, Morgan Stanley's Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant have said that although the oil-gold ratio has historically been a poor indicator of future oil prices, it can still be of interest to investors seeking guidance on the direction of oil prices.
So, how's that trending?
We can go back and see the number of barrels of oil a single ounce of gold could buy at any point in time i.e., barrels per ounce.
Looking at the chart above, the average Gold-Oil ratio since 1946 has been that one ounce of gold would buy 16.53 barrels of oil. Any time an ounce of gold would buy more than 16.53 barrels of oil meant that either oil was cheap or gold was expensive. Conversely, oil has been regarded as being expensive or gold cheap whenever an ounce of gold would buy less than 16.53 barrels. Knowing this can help investors determine whether they should be buying more oil and selling their gold, or vice-versa.
Looking at more recent timeframes, in 1998, oil was cheap while gold was relatively expensive. In 1999 -2000, oil climbed 66% while gold was basically flat. In the early 2000s, gold was once again relatively very cheap, and it went from $271 in 2001 to $1,669 in 2012 when oil was cheap again. Remember, these are just average annual prices, meaning an investor wouldn't need to get their timing exactly right to hit them.
In 2019, oil averaged $50.01 a barrel and gold averaged $1,514.75, meaning an ounce of gold would buy just over 30 barrels of oil. In 2020, the ratio spiked to an astronomical 54.87 barrels per ounce of gold or more than 3x the long-term average. In the current year, the ratio has dropped to 27.60 barrels per ounce of gold, 67% above the long-term average.
The last time the ratio was in the "normal range" was back in 2014 during the last oil price crash. After peaking at $107.95 a barrel on June 20, 2014, crude prices plunged to $44.08 a barrel by January 28, 2015 in the space of just 7 months.
We could, therefore, argue that as bad as the 2014 oil price crash was, it merely represented a reversion to the mean, whereas the 2020 selloff was massively overdone.
The gold outlook remains uncertain, with rising inflation numbers supporting a gold rally but an increasingly hawkish Fed threatening to stop the party.
Assuming gold prices remain stable at the current $1,821 per ounce, oil prices would need to climb to $110/bbl for the gold-oil ratio to return to its historic median.
Suddenly, Bank of America's recent prediction that oil prices could hit $100 per barrel in 2022 does not appear so far-fetched.
Oil Prices and Inflation
However, the oil markets still have to climb another major wall of worry, with investors facing another potential nemesis: Rising inflation.
President has lately sought to soothe fears that rising inflation could hurt the U.S. recovery and undermine his $4tn spending plans. This comes after U.S. inflation for the month of June accelerated to the fastest clip since 2008, as the economy continues to recover following the Covid-19 related lockdowns.
According to the Labor Department, the consumer-price index (CPI) climbed 5.4% Y/Y in the month of June while the core price index--which excludes food and energy--increased 4.5% Y/Y. Rising inflation is being driven by demand for goods and services outpacing the ability of companies to keep up with supply-side bottlenecks hampering diverse industries, including semiconductors and the solar sectors; significant stimulus funding as well as a surge in the U.S. personal savings rate.
Republicans have already seized on the alarming inflation trend to oppose Biden's ambitious spending plans saying the country can ill-afford additional government spending proposals that might juice the economy.
The administration will probably be feeling a little jittery about high oil and gasoline prices not only because of the role that oil has historically played in dictating inflation trends but also because of the risk they pose to his future political ambitions.
Oil prices and inflation are connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. As oil prices climb, inflation tends to follow in the same direction higher. On the other hand, inflation tends to fall in tandem with falling oil prices. That's the case because oil is a major input in the economy, and if input costs rise, so should the cost of end products.
Thankfully, the oil-inflation nexus has weakened considerably since the 1980s.
For instance, during the 1990s and the Gulf War oil crisis, inflation remained stable despite crude oil prices doubling in six months to around $30 from $14.This decoupling between the two metrics became even more apparent during the 1999 to 2005 oil price rally when the annual average nominal price of oil rose to $50 from $16.50 while CPI rose by a much smaller margin to 196.80 in Dec. 2005 from 164.30 in Jan. 1999.
Still, the administration could start fretting about high oil prices because it's a well-known fact that gas prices have an outsized impact on consumer psyches.
Gas prices currently sit at $3.16 per gallon nationally. While that is only about 20 cents higher than the average during the last 10 years, it's a full dollar higher than prices last year.
The price correlation between crude and gasoline has changed quite a lot over the years--in ways that do not favor the consumer. Most states have raised gas taxes, refiners face new rules that add cost, and there's a shortage of drivers for the trucks that deliver gas to filling stations.
The result?
"One-hundred-dollar oil today could get us close to the $4 per gallon mark," says petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy.
The $4 threshold is regarded as an unmistakable pain point for drivers, with $4.17 being the record high for gas prices after oil prices hit $145/bbl in the summer of 2008.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以敬意。如果您认为本站文章侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
