据油价网2021年7月17日报道，由于油价继续上涨，全球石油需求回升到新冠肺炎疫情大流行前的水平，人们可能会购买电动汽车(EV)，以替代昂贵的燃料成本。 国际能源署(IEA)在一份报告中表示，油价上涨预计将鼓励人们放弃传统汽车，转而使用电动汽车。 然而，这可能不利于全球经济的复苏。
今年7月，由于更高的需求和欧佩克+为提高石油基准价格而减产，油价达到每桶77美元，燃油价格不断上涨的威胁令仍在克服Covid-19疫情经济冲击的消费者感到担忧。
IEA在报告中说明了这种情况：“虽然油价处于这样的水平可能会加快运输部门电气化的步伐，有助于加速能源转型，但也可能拖累经济复苏，尤其是拖累新兴国家和发展中国家的经济复苏。”
由于疫苗接种在全球范围内的推广速度加快，限制正在放松，夏季的公路和航空旅行也在增加，全球石油需求预计将在今年全年继续增长，到2022年前达到新冠肺炎疫情大流行前的每天1亿桶的水平。 事实上，在世界上的一些地区，如中国和印度，石油需求预计将超过大流行前的水平，这是因为整个区域的石油需求将在未来十年内继续增加。
IEA警告欧佩克+，如果不减少减产以恢复各成员国的正常生产，以配合全球需求的增长，这可能会导致全球油价上涨并导致全球经济不稳定。
然而，由于前一段时间阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯在产量增加问题上存在争议，欧佩克的增产速度低于预期。 欧佩克+目前预计8月份成员国原油产量将日增约40万桶。
IEA的这份报告基于安永会计师事务所 6月份的AI分析，该分析指出，电动汽车的繁荣来得比预期早得多，到2033年前，电动汽车的销量预计将超过传统汽车。 特别是现在，作为清洁能源转型的一部分，英国等几个欧洲国家正计划最早从2030年起禁止销售汽油和柴油汽车。
随着许多大公司支持电动汽车，亚马逊、美国邮政署和联合航空公司都宣布了新的电动汽车车队，而福特、大众和通用汽车(GM)增加了对电动汽车生产的投资，电动汽车数量和与电动汽车相关的股票将在今年夏天飙升。
此外，由于电动汽车的普及比预期的要快，更高的产量水平对其他行业产生了积极的连锁效应，这意味着制造业所需的金属开采业前景看好。
从长期来看，铜需求量预计将从2020年的30万吨左右增加到2040年的400万吨以上。 此外，到2040年，电池生产行业将占镍需求量的60%。
由于对电动汽车生产至关重要的矿物的开采将增加，几家公司将投资转向国内，以满足绿色政策预期。 例如，通用汽车本月宣布与热控资源公司建立合作关系，从美国国内采购成本更低的锂，用于其电动汽车电池。 他们希望使用美国产的锂将增加就业机会，减少他们的碳足迹。
随着电动汽车热潮的临近，不断上涨的油价势必加剧消费者需求的变化，消费者从汽油和柴油汽车转向更便宜的电动汽车只是一个时间问题。 由于电动汽车市场的迅猛发展，其股票也将大幅上涨，对电动汽车零部件至关重要的矿产品价格也将上涨。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
High Oil Prices Could Fuel EV Adoption
As oil prices continue to rise and global demand is bouncing back to pre-pandemic levels, people could be buying into electric vehicles (EV) as an alternative to expensive fuel costs. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that rising oil prices are expected to encourage people to shift away from traditional vehicles and increase the uptake of EVs. However, this could be detrimental to the recovery of the global economy.
With oil prices hitting $77 a barrel this July, due to higher demand and OPEC+ production cuts aimed at raising the benchmark price of oil, the threat of ever-increasing fuel prices is worrying for consumers who are still overcoming the economic hit of the pandemic.
The IEA stated of the situation, “While prices at these levels could increase the pace of electrification of the transport sector and help accelerate energy transitions, they could also put a drag on the economic recovery, particularly in emerging and developing countries.”
As the vaccination rollout is accelerating across the globe, restrictions are easing, and road and air travel are picking up over the summer months, global oil demand is expected to continue to rise throughout 2021, to hit pre-pandemic levels of 100 million bpd by 2022. In fact, in some areas of the world such as China and India, oil demand is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels, as the oil need across the region will continue to rise over the next decade.
The IEA has warned OPEC+ that if it does not reduce cuts to resume normal production across member states, in line with the global demand increase, this could lead to economic instability due to rising fuel prices worldwide.
However, at present, production levels are being increased slower than expected by OPEC due to challenges in organizational talks, with disputes between the UAE and Saudi Arabia around production increase levels. OPEC+ is currently expected to increase production across member states by around 400,000 bpd in August.
This report builds upon the Ernst & Young AI analysis from June that stated the EV boom is coming much earlier than anticipated, with EV sales expected to surpass those of traditional vehicles by 2033. Particularly as several countries across Europe, such as the U.K., are planning a ban on the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles from as early as 2030 as part of the clean energy transition.
With many major companies backing EVs, with Amazon, the United States Postal Service, and United Airlines all announcing new EV fleets, while Ford, Volkswagen, and General Motors (GM) increase investments in EV production, electric vehicle and EV related stocks are set to soar this summer.
And thanks to the sooner than expected uptake of EVs, greater production levels have a positive knock-on effect on other sectors, meaning mining for metals required for manufacturing looks promising.
In the longer term, copper demand is expected to increase from around 300,000 t in 2020 to over 4 Mt in 2040. In addition, the battery production industry will account for 60 percent of nickel demand through 2040.
As mining for minerals vital for EV production is set to increase, several companies turn their investments inwards in an attempt to meet green policy expectations. For example, GM announced a partnership with Controlled Thermal Resources this month, to source lower-cost lithium from within the U.S. for use in its EV batteries. They hope the use of American lithium will increase job opportunities and reduce their carbon footprint.
With the EV boom looming and ever-increasing oil prices set to add to the shift in consumer demand, it is only a matter of time until customers move away from petrol and diesel vehicles to cheaper-to-run electric alternatives. And as the EV market soars so shall its stocks, as well as those of minerals vital for EV components.
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