据世界石油7月23日报道，由于夏季高温加剧了对今年晚些时候供应紧张的担忧，美国天然气期货价格自2018年12月以来首次飙升至每百万英热单位4美元。
8月交割的天然气价格为4.003美元，创下31个月以来的最高收盘价。2022年3月天然气相对于4月期货的溢价——主要是押注明年冬季结束时市场供应不足的程度——达到62.9美分，徘徊在历史高位附近。
由于炎热的天气刺激了空调用电的需求，燃料的价格在全球范围内飙升。然而，在美国，对冬季可能出现的供应短缺的担忧也支撑了油价的上涨。冬季，随着家庭和企业增加供暖，天然气消耗达到峰值。石油储备已低于今年同期的正常水平，而石油产量增长也受到抑制，因为钻井公司听从了投资者对资本纪律的呼吁。
“通常情况下，这种上涨是合理的。这在很大程度上取决于天气，而且不会消失，”瑞穗证券期货部门主管鲍勃·雅格(Bob Yawger)在接受采访时说，“我们已经很久没有见过这种热度了。”
下周，酷热的夏季可能会将德克萨斯州的电力需求推至接近历史最高水平，但该州的电网运营商表示，他们有足够的电力来避免停电。美国国家气象局(National Weather Service)表示，达拉斯的气温预计最快将在周一飙升至101华氏度(38摄氏度)，今年首次突破100华氏度大关。
出口也加剧了天然气供应紧张。今年5月，美国液化天然气出口量首次超过澳大利亚，因为世界各地的买家继续购买创纪录数量的超冷燃料。下个月，美国通过管道向墨西哥输送的天然气也将达到历史最高水平。
政府数据显示，美国地下天然气储量比往年同期低6.2%。
对冲基金Again Capital LLC的创始合伙人约翰•基尔达夫(John Kilduff)表示，市场正以“多年来库存最低的天然气储量”进入冬季。
黎泱 编译自 世界石油
原文如下：
Natural gas price nears three-year high as summer heat strains supply
Natural gas futures soared to $4 per million British thermal units in the U.S. for the first time since December 2018 as summer heat intensified concerns about tight supplies later this year.
Gas for August delivery settled at $4.003, the highest closing price in 31 months. The premium for March 2022 gas over April futures -- essentially a bet on how undersupplied the market will be at the end of next winter -- reached 62.9 cents, hovering near a record high.
Prices for the fuel are soaring across the globe as scorching weather stokes demand for electricity to run air conditioners. In the U.S., however, the rally is also underpinned by concern about a potential supply shortfall in the winter, when gas consumption peaks as homes and businesses crank up the heat. Stockpiles are already below normal for the time of year, and production growth has been restrained as drillers heed investor calls for capital discipline.
“You generally have a heat situation that justifies this kind of rally. It’s largely a function of the weather, and it’s not going to go away,” Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities, said in an interview. “We haven’t seen this kind of heat in a long time.”
Intense summer heat could push power demand in Texas to near-record levels next week, but the state’s grid operator says it has more than enough electricity to keep blackouts at bay.
Temperatures are expected to soar to 101 Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) in Dallas as soon as Monday, the National Weather Service said, breaking the 100-degree mark for the first time this year.
Exports are also contributing to tight gas supplies. In May, the U.S. shipments of liquefied natural gas exceeded Australia’s for the first time ever as buyers around the world continued to purchase record amounts of the super-chilled fuel. The next month, gas deliveries to Mexico from the U.S. via pipeline also reached an all-time high.
U.S. gas in underground storage is 6.2% below normal for the time of year, government data show.
The market is on pace to go into the winter with “the least amount of gas in storage we’ve had on hand in years,” said John Kilduff, founding partner at hedge fund Again Capital LLC.
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