据油田技术7月21日报道，根据ESAI 能源安全分析公司在其全球燃料五年展望中的疫苗接种分析，到2022年年中，全球约四分之三的石油需求将来自免疫接种已达到60%的国家，并且不应再面临封锁或其他影响经济活动和石油需求的行动的风险。
但全球整体需求可能要到2023年中期才会达到这一水平。即便如此，一些国家可能依赖于自然群体免疫而不是疫苗。
ESAI审查了前25个石油消费国的疫苗接种趋势，考察了病例数量、疫苗接种机会、疫苗接种意愿和政府行动，以便预测疫苗接种率。如果在60%的人口接种疫苗或携带足够抗体的情况下，进行有效的国家免疫接种，那么封锁和减少经济活动的可能性就会大大降低。风险的减少支持了石油需求的增长。不幸的是，并非所有国家都能轻易实现60%的免疫接种。此外，由于疾病的传播，有些可能永远无法达到这一免疫水平，而将依赖自然群体免疫。
ESAI公司负责人莎拉 爱默生（Sarah Emerson）表示：“很明显，随着疫苗接种率的上升，新冠肺炎疫情对经济活动的威胁下降，所以我们应该能够衡量仍然处于风险中的石油需求的数量。我们的分析表明,威胁到全球石油需求还将持续一段时间。”
王佳晶 摘译自 油田技术
原文如下：
ESAI Energy: global oil demand at risk into 2023
According to ESAI Energy’s vaccination analysis in its Five-Year Outlook for Global Fuels, by mid-2022, about three-quarters of global oil demand will come from countries where immunisation (from current COVID variants) has reached 60% and should no longer be at risk of lockdown or other actions that impact economic activity and oil demand.
But global demand in its entirety probably will not reach that point until mid-2023. And even then, several countries may rely on natural herd immunity rather than vaccination.
ESAI has examined vaccination trends in the top 25 oil-consuming countries, looking at case load, vaccine access, vaccine hesitation and government actions, in order to forecast vaccination rates. If effective national immunisation occurs when 60% of the population is vaccinated or carries sufficient antibodies, at that point, the likelihood of lockdowns and diminished economic activity should drop considerably. This reduction in risk supports oil demand growth. Unfortunately, not all countries are on an easy path to 60% immunisation. Moreover, some may never reach that level of immunisation and will depend on natural herd immunity due to the spread of the disease.
“It seems clear that the threat to economic activity declines as vaccination rates rise, so we should be able to measure the volume of oil demand that remains at risk. Our analysis suggests the threat to global oil demand will last a while,” commented Sarah Emerson, ESAI Energy Principal.
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