据今日油价7月20日报道，欧佩克+谈判的失败以及随后双方的和解(尽管是渐进的)恰逢中东国家石油公司在2021年8月制定官方销售价格。欧佩克+谈判与沙特阿拉伯的预期之间的联系是显而易见的，沙特阿美直到最后一刻才公布其官方价格，直到维也纳会议明确取消时才公布，沙特推迟逐月加息只会凸显其意图。8月，沙特阿美在各大洲上调油价，多数情况下超出了一般市场的预期。此举传达了一个相当直接的信息，即沙特阿美不希望欧佩克+的集体行动停止，也不会增加产量，超过配额。其他国家的石油公司在不同程度上也纷纷效仿。现在，随着欧佩克+协议再次活跃起来，这样做完全合情合理。尽管欧洲和北美炼油业务的整体利润率似乎要健康得多，但亚洲炼油运营商的兴趣最大，是沙特原油的主要市场。迪拜M1-M3期货的月间现货溢价上月扩大了约60美分/桶，因此普遍预期8月份价格涨幅将大致与此一致。然而，沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Saudi Aramco)将“阿拉伯超轻”(Arab Super Light)原油价格按月上调了1美元/桶(相对于阿曼/迪拜的平均价格溢价3.85美元)，其他所有级别的原油价格则按月上调了0.8美元/桶。这种全面涨价的奇怪之处在于，轻、重品级之间缺乏差别。在2020年价格暴跌的背景下，价差趋平后，这是2021年的总体主要趋势之一。
沙特阿美在欧洲也采取了同样的举措。西北欧所有品类的配方价格均按月上涨0.8美元/桶，而美国出口价格自7月起上涨20美分/桶，阿拉伯特轻质原油价格上涨40美分/桶除外。问题在于，西方经济体的经济正常化对轻质原油的影响不同于对重原油的影响，即富含石脑油的品级成为原油品级中需求最大的部分。尽管整个亚太地区的油价持续走软，但8月份的油价上涨导致亚洲阿拉伯轻质原油相对阿曼/迪拜原油(Oman/Dubai)均价升至每桶1.20美元的9年高点。
阿联酋的基准城市Murban走了一条不同的道路，尽管总体结果与直接竞争对手阿拉伯超轻能源几乎没有什么不同。IFAD 2021年8月Murban价格定为每桶72.34美元，比迪拜月平均现金价格高出1.28美元。虽然交易所会自动计算Murban OSP的平均值，但ADNOC会手动调整其他等级，以反映当前的市场状况。在这里，ADNOC更符合大势所趋，超越Das，将Umm Lulu的价格提高了5美分，与Murban持平，同时从7月份开始，将Upper Zakum的价格降低了10美分，与Murban的价差为每桶0.6美元，这是疫情爆发以来的最低水平。
沙特阿美在8月份确定了中东定价的总体路线后，伊拉克SOMO就没有什么动力偏离既定路线，但它仍试图增加一层细微差别。伊拉克石油公司将巴士拉轻油和巴士拉中油在亚洲的价格每月上调80美分，同时将巴士拉重油每桶上调75美分，至比阿曼/迪拜平均价格低0.65美元/桶，从而减轻了对最严重的打击。SOMO的欧洲原油价格对买家更加友好，其旗舰级原油价格将上调55-65美分/桶，基尔库克原油价格将从7月开始展期。2021年8月的oss数据再次反映出，高产量的品级应比富含石脑油的品级的月环比增幅更小。
科威特仿效沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司的定价，将KEB 8月OSP每桶上调80美分，至较阿曼/迪拜平均水平溢价2.05美元，保持了较阿拉伯中型原油每桶10美分的折扣，较巴士拉轻质原油每桶20美分的折扣。尽管科威特的产量基线确实从281万桶/天提高到了296万桶/天，但其当前的出口能力可能会因电力峰值需求而减少。由于普遍依赖伴生天然气发电，受配额限制的石油生产导致可用发电的天然气数量下降，而此时正值科威特艰难应对有记录以来最温暖的一个夏季。其结果是，科威特的原油消耗量再次开始上升(接近每日20万桶)，而此前该国的电力需求在本月多次达到历史最高水平。假设，进口液化天然气可能会挽救科威特(它确实开始进口液化天然气)，但过高的液化天然气价格限制了这个中东国家这样做的空间。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Why Saudi Arabia Hiked Oil Prices So Aggressively
The failure of the OPEC+ talks and the subsequent (albeit gradual) rapprochement of the sides coincided with Middle Eastern NOCs setting their August 2021 official selling prices. The connection between the OPEC+ talks and Saudi Arabia’s expectations was visible in that Saudi Aramco did not issue its official prices up until the last point, publishing them only when the Vienna meeting was definitely and certifiably called off. The delay of Saudi Arabia’s month-on-month hikes only underscores the intent; by hiking August prices across all continents, in most cases beyond the general market’s anticipations, Aramco put across a fairly straightforward message that it does not want the collective OPEC+ action to halt and it will not ramp up production beyond its quota. Other national oil companies followed suit, to varying degrees, and now, with the OPEC+ deal alive and kicking again, it all made perfect sense to do so. Even though overall refining margins seem much healthier in Europe and North America, it was the Asian OSPs that generated the most interest, the main market outlet for Saudi barrels. The inter-month backwardation on Dubai M1-M3 futures widened last month by some 60 cents per barrel, therefore the general expectation was that the increments for August prices would be roughly along those lines. Saudi Aramco, however, raised Arab Super Light by $1 per barrel (to a $3.85 premium vs Oman/Dubai average) and all the other grades by $0.8 per barrel month-on-month. The odd thing about such an across-the-board move was the lack of differentiation between lighter and heavier grades, one of the main trends of 2021 overall after the flattening of differentials on the back of the 2020 price slump.
Saudi Aramco went for the same move in Europe, too. Formula prices for Northwest Europe were hiked by $0.8 per barrel month-on-month across the board for all grades, whilst US-bound prices were increased by 20 cents per barrel from July, with the exception of Arab Extra Light which was raised by 40 cents per barrel m-o-m. The issue is that the economic normalization that has been happening in western economies impacted lighter ends differently than it did the heavier yields – namely, grades rich in naphtha became the most in-demand segment of the crude spectrum. Bereft of nuance, the August price hike has led to Asian Arab Heavy prices reaching a 9-year high at $1.20 per barrel premium against the Oman/Dubai average, despite a protracted heavy-end weakness across the Asia Pacific.
The UAE benchmark Murban has followed a different route, even though the overall result was hardly different from its direct peer Arab Extra Light. The IFAD price for August 2021 Murban prices was set at $72.34 per barrel, some $1.28 per barrel above the cash Dubai monthly average. Whilst the exchange naturally calculates the average Murban OSP, the other grades are manually tweaked by ADNOC to reflect current market conditions. Here ADNOC was more in line with the general trend, rolling over Das, hiking Umm Lulu by 5 cents to parity with Murban, all the while dropping Upper Zakum by 10 cents from July to a differential of -$0.6 per barrel to Murban, the lowest since the onset of the pandemic. Upper Zakum, being the heaviest of ADNOC’s major streams at 34° API, is certainly facing a much harder task of finding market outlets than the light sweet Murban.
once Saudi Aramco set the overall course for Middle Eastern pricing in August, the Iraqi SOMO had little incentive to diverge from the charted course yet it still tried to add a layer of nuance. The Iraqi state oil marketer hiked Asia-bound prices by 80 cents per barrel month-on-month for Basrah Light and Basrah Medium, whilst increasing Basrah Heavy by 75 cents per barrel to a -$0.65 per barrel discount to the Oman/Dubai average, i.e. softening the blow on the heaviest of streams. SOMO’s European prices were even more buyer-friendly, seeing a 55-65 cents per barrel hike for its flagship grades and rolling over Kirkuk prices from July. once again, the notion that heavy-yield-rich grades should see a smaller month-on-month increase than those rich in naphtha found its reflection in the August 2021 OSPs.
Kuwait mirrored Saudi Aramco’s pricing and hiked its KEB August OSP by 80 cents per barrel to a 2.05 per barrel premium over the Oman/Dubai average, keeping the 10 cents per barrel discount to Arab Medium and the 20 cents per barrel discount to Basrah Light. Whilst Kuwait did get a production baseline hike, from 2.81mbpd to 2.96mbpd, its immediate export capacities might be curtailed by peak power demand. Generally reliant on associated gas for its power generation, quota-restricted oil production has triggered a decline in gas available for power generation just as Kuwait has been struggling to cope with one of its warmest summers on record. As a result, crude burns started rising in Kuwait again (getting closer to 0.2mbpd) on the heels of the country hitting several all-time peaks in power demand over the course of this month. Hypothetically, LNG imports might save the day for Kuwait (and it did indeed start importing LNG), however the exorbitantly high prices of liquefied gas limit the Middle Eastern nation’s space in doing so.
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